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This game is a coin flip and Indiana is getting points. Take the Fever +1.5.
Minnesota is a 1.5-point favourite in Indianapolis on Tuesday, -1.5 at -110 at DraftKings, read at 16:39 UTC on 21 September. The line, the moneyline and the total have not moved from their opening numbers.
The number
My figure compares like with like. Both teams have winning records, so I take Indiana’s home games against winning teams and Minnesota’s road games against winning teams, and half the difference between the two average margins is the number.
Indiana is 5-6 in those eleven home games and wins them by 2.0 points on average. Minnesota is 7-3 in its ten road games and wins them by 2.2. Half the difference is Minnesota by 0.1.
The plain venue split lands in the same place. Indiana wins its home games by 8.0, and Minnesota wins its road games by 8.3.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. Minnesota by 0.1 against a price that gives Indiana 1.5 is a gap of 1.4, on Indiana. The moneyline has Minnesota winning 52.6% of the time once the bookmaker’s margin is out. ESPN’s matchup predictor has Indiana at 52.3%.
Minnesota has the better season
The Lynx are 32-10, the best record in the league, and 18-3 on the road. Nobody should read this pick as a claim that Indiana is the better team.
The claim is smaller. Minnesota’s road record is built mostly on the teams below it: against winning teams on the road the Lynx are 7-3 and win by 2.2, a quarter of their overall road margin. And the last ten games are 7-3 at 3.2 a game, less than half their season margin of 7.5.
Indiana at home
The Fever score 99.2 a game at home, the most of any team in this game at either venue, and allow 91.2. They are 14-7 in Indianapolis.
The last result is the one against them. Washington won 93-77 in Indianapolis on Sunday, Indiana’s first home loss since Las Vegas won 86-84 there on 6 August. The only meeting this season went to Minnesota, 108-100 in Minneapolis on 2 August.
The total
The total is 188.5, over -110 and under -110. Indiana’s games have a median total of 188 this season, Minnesota’s 176. Over the last ten games Indiana’s have averaged 191.5 and Minnesota’s 172.4.
The two teams pull in opposite directions by twelve points, and the line sits at Indiana’s number. That leans under and I am not betting a season median. No bet.
Pick: Fever +1.5
Pick: Indiana Fever +1.5 at -110, DraftKings, read 21 September 2026 at 16:39 UTC.
What would change it: a move toward Indiana. At Minnesota -0.5 or a pick’em, the gap falls under a point and I pass. The samples under the number are eleven and ten games, and Minnesota’s 7-3 in them includes a 13-point loss.
Minnesota Lynx at Indiana Fever, Tuesday 22 September 2026, 8:00 PM ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 21 September 2026, 16:39 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 21 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.
