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In Minneapolis the numbers turn toward Minnesota. Take the Lynx at -0.5 or better.
No book had a line on this game when I read the market at 16:15 UTC on 21 September, so this piece gives the price I would pay. My number is Minnesota by 1.75. Every figure runs through Sunday 20 September; the same two teams meet in Indianapolis on Tuesday first.
The number
Both teams have winning records, so my figure takes Minnesota’s home games against winning teams and Indiana’s road games against winning teams, and halves the difference between the two average margins.
Minnesota is 7-4 in its eleven and wins them by 4.3 points on average. Indiana is 4-6 in its ten and wins them by 0.8. Half the difference is Minnesota by 1.75.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. Minnesota is a bet at -0.5, at a pick’em or getting points, and a pass at -1 or longer. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Minnesota 63.9%.
Two games, two venues
On Tuesday in Indianapolis the same method makes Minnesota a 0.1-point favourite, and with Indiana getting 1.5 there, that page takes the Fever. Thursday moves the game to Minnesota’s floor, and the number moves with it.
The only meeting so far, on 2 August in Minneapolis, went to Minnesota 108-100.
Minnesota
The Lynx are 32-10, the best record in the league. They are 14-7 at home, scoring 92.6 and allowing 85.9, and 14-7 against winning teams.
Their last two were a 93-81 home loss to New York on 18 September and a 101-89 win in Connecticut on Sunday. Over the last ten they are 7-3, winning by 3.2 a game.
Indiana
The Fever are 27-15 and score more than anyone in this game: 96.7 a game, and 94.1 on the road. They also allow 90.5 on the road.
Their last two were a 103-85 win in Toronto on 18 September and a 93-77 home loss to Washington on Sunday.
The total
With no total posted there is nothing to bet. Indiana’s games have a median total of 188 this season and Minnesota’s 176. Over the last ten, Indiana’s have averaged 191.5 and Minnesota’s 172.4.
The August meeting produced 208, above both medians. One game.
Pick: Lynx -0.5 or better
Pick: Minnesota Lynx, at -0.5 or better. My number is Minnesota by 1.75. No line had been posted when this was written, 21 September 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
What would change it: a line of Minnesota -1 or longer is a pass. The samples are eleven and ten games, and this is the last night of the regular season, when rest decisions are hardest to predict.
Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, Thursday 24 September 2026, 8:00 PM ET, Target Center. Results: ESPN, read 21 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. ESPN matchup predictor read 21 September 2026. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.
