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Our number has UL Monroe winning by 3.8. At +13.5, take UL Monroe.
Florida Atlantic is a 13.5-point favourite at UL Monroe on DraftKings, the same number it opened at. Our number has the home team winning, by 3.8. The gap is 17.3 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
UL Monroe is 1-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 12.0 points a game across 4 games. Florida Atlantic is 1-6 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 19.6 a game across 7 games. The difference is 7.6 points. Half of it is 3.8.
Both samples are thin, and UL Monroe’s is the thinner: 4 games, all from 2025. One of Florida Atlantic’s seven road games is from 2026, the 66-21 loss at Florida on 5 September.
Florida Atlantic on the road
The road sample is the whole argument. Florida Atlantic’s one road win against an FBS team in that span was 27-21 at Rice. The six losses came by 45 at Florida, 35 at South Florida, 32 at Maryland, 11 at Tulane, and 10 each at Florida International and Navy.
The Florida game is the biggest single input. Take it out and the road average is a loss by 15.3 across 6 games. The number would then be UL Monroe by 1.7, still 15.2 points from the spread.
UL Monroe’s home results are poor too. It beat Arkansas State 28-16, then lost 37-14 to Troy, 31-6 to Old Dominion and 26-14 to South Alabama. The method only asks which of two poor numbers is worse, and Florida Atlantic’s is worse by 7.6 points.
2026 so far
UL Monroe is 0-3. It lost 62-13 at Mississippi State and 26-20 at UAB, then 38-35 at home to SE Louisiana, a team outside the FBS, on 19 September. The method counts FBS opponents only, so that home loss is not in our number.
Florida Atlantic is 2-1 and 1-0 in the American Conference. After the loss at Florida it beat Navy 38-30 and Florida International 16-10, both at home. All three of its games were against FBS teams, and it has been outscored by 10.3 a game.
This is a non-conference game; UL Monroe plays in the Sun Belt.
Last season
Florida Atlantic went 4-8 in 2025 and lost by 6.8 points a game. It went 1-5 on the road. UL Monroe went 3-9 and lost by 15.3 a game.
UL Monroe’s worst 2025 result was a 73-0 loss at Alabama. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026.
The price
UL Monroe is +13.5 and was +13.5 at the open, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has Florida Atlantic at -535 and UL Monroe at +400, from -600 and +440 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Florida Atlantic to win 80.8% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Florida Atlantic at 76.5%.
The market and FPI both make Florida Atlantic a clear winner. Ours makes UL Monroe the winner, by 3.8, and the disagreement is 17.3 points.
Pick: UL Monroe +13.5
UL Monroe +13.5 at -110. The gap is 17.3 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 11 games, split 4 and 7. Ten of them are from 2025. UL Monroe has not played an FBS team at home this season.
What changes it
Only a very large line move. At UL Monroe -0.5 the gap is still 3.3 and the bet stands. At UL Monroe -1 it is 2.8, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 59.5 and is 57.5 now, over -112 and under -108, as read at DraftKings. That is a 2-point drop.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, UL Monroe’s games went over 57.5 in 3 of 13, and Florida Atlantic’s in 10 of 14. The two samples point opposite ways. Florida Atlantic’s three games this season produced 87, 68 and 26 points; UL Monroe’s two against FBS teams produced 75 and 46.
Pass on the total at 57.5. The two samples cancel out.
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe, Saturday 26 September, 8:00 PM ET, Malone Stadium, Monroe. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
