NFL Predictions 
MLB Predictions 
NBA Predictions 
NHL Predictions 
Soccer Predictions 
Western Kentucky is -38.5 against a team with three FBS games in two seasons. No bet.
Western Kentucky is a 38.5-point favourite over Mercyhurst at DraftKings, the same number it opened at. The method needs at least 4 games in each sample before it prices a side. Mercyhurst’s road sample holds 3.
Mercyhurst plays outside the FBS, and all three of its FBS games in two seasons were on the road. The method has too little to price this game. For the record, the arithmetic comes out at Western Kentucky by 25.0, and that figure is not a call.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Western Kentucky is 4-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 9.6 points a game across 5 games. Mercyhurst is 0-3 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 40.3 a game across 3 games. The difference is 49.9 points. Half of it, rounded, is 25.0.
Three games prove little. Mercyhurst lost 49-28 at Sacramento State in 2025, then 51-14 at New Mexico State and 70-7 at New Mexico this season. Western Kentucky has not played a home game in 2026, so its five are all from 2025.
Western Kentucky, home and away
At home in 2025, Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston 41-24, Nevada 31-16, New Mexico State 35-16 and Middle Tennessee 42-26. It lost 25-6 to Florida International. None of those margins is larger than 19 points.
Its 2026 has been three road games against FBS teams, and three heavy losses: 49-14 at Nevada, 70-20 at Georgia and 38-0 at Indiana on 19 September. It has scored 11.3 points a game and allowed 52.3.
The method does not see those games, because they were on the road. On Western Kentucky’s side it sees only a home team that won by 9.6 a game last season.
2026 so far
Mercyhurst is 1-3. It lost 43-10 at Youngstown State, a team outside the FBS, on 27 August, then lost at New Mexico State and New Mexico. It beat Glenville State, also outside the FBS, 49-20 at home on 19 September.
Against its two FBS opponents this season Mercyhurst has scored 10.5 points a game and allowed 60.5. New Mexico beat it by 63 and New Mexico State by 37, one either side of 38.5. This is not a conference game.
Last season
Mercyhurst went 5-7 in 2025 and lost by 6.0 points a game, and the Sacramento State game was its only one against an FBS team. Western Kentucky went 9-4 and won by 6.7 a game.
Western Kentucky’s 2025 ended with a 27-16 win over Southern Miss at a neutral site on 23 December. The two teams did not meet in 2025, and have not met this season.
The price
Western Kentucky is -38.5 and was -38.5 at the open, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
No moneyline is posted. ESPN’s FPI has Western Kentucky winning 95.9% of the time.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the side. Mercyhurst’s sample is 3 games, under the 4 the method requires, so there is no number to bet against the 38.5.
The other side of it is thin as well: Western Kentucky’s 5 home games against FBS teams are all from last season.
What changes it
No line move changes it. The call is a pass at any price until Mercyhurst has played 4 FBS teams on the road, and it has played 3 since the start of 2025.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total is 56.5 and was 56.5 at the open, over and under both -110, as read at DraftKings.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Mercyhurst’s games went over 56.5 in 3 of 3: 77, 65 and 77 points. Western Kentucky’s went over in 6 of 15, and its three this season produced 63, 90 and 38.
Pass on the total at 56.5. Three games on one side is not a sample.
Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky, Saturday 26 September, 7:00 PM ET, Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
