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Our number has Tulane by 8.6. At +18.5, take Southern Miss.
Tulane opened as a 17.5-point favourite over Southern Miss at DraftKings and is 18.5 now. Our number is Tulane by 8.6. The gap is 9.9 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Tulane is 8-0 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 12.0 points a game across 8 games. Southern Miss is 3-3 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 5.2 a game across 6 games. The difference is 17.2 points. Half of it is 8.6.
Eight and six games is a thin base. One game in each comes from 2026: Tulane’s 28-24 win over South Alabama, and Southern Miss’s 43-8 loss at Auburn on 12 September.
Tulane at home
Tulane wins at home, and it wins by moderate margins. Its eight home wins against FBS teams came by 27 over Charlotte, 20 over Northwestern, 13 over North Texas, 11 over Florida Atlantic, 7 each over Duke, East Carolina and Army, and 4 over South Alabama.
The spread asks Tulane to win by 19. It has done that in 2 of those 8 games.
Southern Miss on the road is a split. It won 38-35 at Georgia Southern, 22-10 at Louisiana and 27-21 at Arkansas State, and lost 30-20 at Louisiana Tech, 42-35 at South Alabama and 43-8 at Auburn. The Auburn game is the only road loss by more than 10.
2026 so far
Tulane is 1-2, and all three games were against FBS teams. It lost 17-3 at Duke, beat South Alabama 28-24 at home, and lost 31-20 at Kansas State on 19 September. It has scored 17.0 points a game.
Southern Miss is 1-2. It beat Alcorn State, a team outside the FBS, 49-3, then lost 43-8 at Auburn and 48-20 at home to UConn on 19 September. Against its two FBS opponents it has been outscored by 31.5 a game. That is the case against this pick, and the home loss to UConn does not enter the method, which counts Southern Miss on the road only.
This is a non-conference game. Tulane plays in the American Conference and Southern Miss in the Sun Belt.
Last season
Tulane went 11-3 in 2025 and won by 3.8 points a game, and went 7-0 at home. Its season ended with a 41-10 loss at Ole Miss on 20 December. Southern Miss went 7-6 and won by 1.4 a game.
Southern Miss’s 2025 ended with a 27-16 loss to Western Kentucky on 23 December, at a neutral site. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026.
The price
Tulane opened at -17.5 and is -18.5 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1-point move toward Tulane. Southern Miss +18.5 is priced at -112, Tulane -18.5 at -108.
The moneyline has Tulane at -1000 and Southern Miss at +650, from -1200 and +750 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Tulane to win 87.2% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Tulane at 86.2%.
The market, FPI and our number all make Tulane the winner. The disagreement is the size of it: 8.6 points against 18.5.
Pick: Southern Miss +18.5
Southern Miss +18.5 at -112. The gap is 9.9 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 14 games, split 8 and 6, and 12 of them are from 2025. Southern Miss’s two FBS games this season lean the other way, and two games prove little.
What changes it
A line move toward Southern Miss. At Tulane -12 the gap is 3.4 and the bet stands. At -11.5 it is 2.9, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 53.5 and is 52.5 now, over -108 and under -112, as read at DraftKings. That is a 1-point drop.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Tulane’s games went over 52.5 in 7 of 17, and Southern Miss’s in 7 of 14. Together that is 14 of 31. Tulane’s three games this season produced 20, 52 and 51 points; Southern Miss’s two against FBS teams produced 51 and 68.
Pass on the total at 52.5. Fourteen of 31 is too close to even to lean on.
Southern Miss at Tulane, Saturday 26 September, 7:00 PM ET, Yulman Stadium, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
