NFL Predictions 
MLB Predictions 
NBA Predictions 
NHL Predictions 
Soccer Predictions 
Our number has Vanderbilt by 1.6. At +9.5, take Vanderbilt.
Auburn is a 9.5-point favourite over Vanderbilt at DraftKings, up from 8.5 at the open. Our number has the visitor winning, by 1.6. The gap is 11.1 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Auburn is 3-5 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 6.9 points a game across 8 games. Vanderbilt is 3-2 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 10.0 a game across 5 games. The difference is 3.1 points in Vanderbilt’s favour. Half of it, rounded, is 1.6.
Eight and five games is thin. Vanderbilt has not played a road game this season, so all five of its games are from 2025. Two of Auburn’s eight are from 2026.
Auburn at home
Auburn’s home average is positive on a losing record. Its three wins were large: 42-3 over Ball State and 31-15 over South Alabama in 2025, and 43-8 over Southern Miss on 12 September. Its five losses were all by 10 or fewer: 20-10 to Georgia, 23-17 to Missouri, 10-3 to Kentucky and 27-20 to Alabama, then 44-39 to Florida on 19 September.
Vanderbilt won 44-20 at Virginia Tech, 31-7 at South Carolina and 45-24 at Tennessee in 2025. It lost 30-14 at Alabama and 34-31 at Texas.
Take one of Vanderbilt’s two 24-point road wins out of the sample. Its road average is then 6.5 across 4 games, and the number becomes Auburn by 0.2. That is still 9.3 points short of the line.
2026 so far
Vanderbilt is 3-0, all at home. It beat Austin Peay, a team outside the FBS, 28-9, then Delaware 35-26 and NC State 35-31 on 19 September. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 35.0 a game and allowed 28.5.
Auburn is 2-1. It beat Baylor 17-16 at a neutral site on 5 September, beat Southern Miss, and lost to Florida. It has scored 33.0 a game and allowed 22.7, all three against FBS teams.
This is an SEC game. Auburn is 0-1 in the conference after the Florida loss; Vanderbilt has not played an SEC game this season.
Last season
Vanderbilt went 10-3 in 2025 and won by 15.6 points a game. It was 7-0 at home and ended with a 34-27 loss to Iowa at a neutral site on 31 December. Auburn went 5-7 and won by 6.1 a game.
The two met on 8 November 2025 at Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt won 45-38. Played at the other end of the trip, that game is in neither sample.
The price
Auburn opened at -8.5 and is -9.5 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1-point move toward Auburn. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has Auburn at -355 and Vanderbilt at +280, from -340 and +270 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Auburn to win 74.8% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Auburn at 74.9%.
The market and FPI agree almost to the decimal. Ours has Vanderbilt winning, and that is the 11.1-point disagreement.
Pick: Vanderbilt +9.5
Vanderbilt +9.5 at -110. The gap is 11.1 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 13 games, split 8 and 5, and 11 of them are from 2025. Vanderbilt’s road sample is five games from last season. That is the weakest part of the number.
What changes it
A line move toward Vanderbilt. At Vanderbilt +1.5 the gap is 3.1 and the bet stands. At +1 it is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 50.5 and is 55.5 now, over -102 and under -118, as read at DraftKings. That is a 5-point rise.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Vanderbilt’s games went over 55.5 in 10 of 14, and Auburn’s in 4 of 14. The two samples pull in opposite directions. Vanderbilt’s two FBS games this season produced 61 and 66 points; Auburn’s three produced 33, 51 and 83.
Pass on the total at 55.5. The two samples cancel out.
Vanderbilt at Auburn, Saturday 26 September, 4:15 PM ET, Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
