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Our number and the price are 0.7 points apart. No bet.
The Florida Panthers are -125 against the Los Angeles Kings at +105 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 46.8% chance for the Kings. Our number is 47.5%. The gap is 0.7 points, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 or more.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Kings went 15-17-9 at home, meaning 15 wins, 17 regulation losses and 9 losses after regulation. That is a 36.6% home win rate over 41 games. The Panthers went 17-23-1 on the road and lost 24 of 41, a 58.5% road loss rate. The average is 47.5% for the Kings, which leaves 52.5% for the Panthers.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -125 and +105, it leaves the Panthers at 53.2% and the Kings at 46.8%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The only evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Kings and 41 road games for the Panthers. The Panthers play three road games before this one, from 29 September to 4 October, and the Kings two, at Colorado on 30 September and at San Jose on 3 October. None of those games is in these figures.
The Kings at home, the Panthers on the road
The Kings at home scored 2.63 goals a game and allowed 3.12. The Panthers on the road scored 2.88 and allowed 3.73. Both sides were outscored in these games.
The Kings lost 20 games after regulation last season, 9 of them at home, and 33 of their 82 games went past 60 minutes. The standings gave them a point for each of those 20. This method counts each one as a loss, which is how a 15-17-9 home record becomes a 36.6% home win rate.
The Kings finished 35-27-20 with 90 points and were outscored by 0.27 goals a game. They lost their playoff series 4-0 to the Colorado Avalanche. The Panthers finished 40-38-4 with 84 points, outscored by 0.31 a game, and did not reach the playoffs.
The Panthers won both meetings in 2025-26: 5-2 at Los Angeles on 7 November and 3-2 at home on 18 December. Two games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 0.7 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Panthers opened at -130 and the Kings at +110, a gap of 1.8 points at those prices. Read on 24 September 2026 at 04:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, they were -125 and +105.
What changes it
A much longer price on either side. The Kings become a bet at +136 or longer, whatever the Panthers are priced at. The Panthers become a bet at +111 or longer.
The lineups are unknown here. This page states nothing about who plays on 6 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Kings’ games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82 and the Panthers’ in 50 of 82. The Kings’ home games averaged 5.75 goals, the Panthers’ road games 6.61.
The two over rates, 47.6% and 61.0%, average 54.3%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed. The gap rounds to zero. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Panthers -1.5 at +195 and the Kings +1.5 at -238. The Panthers won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, and the Kings lost by two or more in 21 of 82. Averaged, Panthers -1.5 lands 24.4% of the time against 32.5% priced, a gap of 8.1 points. Lean Kings +1.5 at -238, a price that returns little. It stays a lean, because the moneyline is the one call this page bets.
Panthers at Kings, Tuesday 6 October, 10:00 PM ET, Crypto.com Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
