Expert Guide to Stanley Cup Betting

Stanley Cup betting is extremely popular among hockey fans and general sports bettors. With so many betting opportunities available, there is no shortage of value that can be found. However, finding great value is easier said than done. 

This expert betting guide will provide you with everything you need to know to find the most value for betting on the Stanley Cup. This includes advanced statistics you need to learn, betting tips, and important information you should know about the Stanley Cup finals. 

Stanley Cup Betting Odds

How the Stanley Cup Works

The Stanley Cup is the championship trophy that is awarded annually to the NHL playoff winner. Dating back to 1893, the Stanley Cup is one of the most prestigious trophies in the world of professional sports. 

The championship takes place over a series of 7 games between the top remaining playoff teams. The games take place in the arena of the two competing teams. Each series alternates the location according to the home-ice advantage format. 

The Stanley Cup finals follow the same rules as all the other games throughout the season. However, there are two special rules that apply.

Special Rules

Overtime: During the regular season, games tied once regulation ends move into a 5-minute sudden death overtime match. This is a 3-on-3 scenario, and a shootout follows if the score is still tired after the 5 minutes are up.

Overtime in the Stanley Cup continues with a 20-minute 5-on-5 sudden death period that ends when a team scores. There are no shootouts during the Stanley Cup or NHL playoffs. 

Home-Ice Advantage: The team that scored more regular season points receives home-ice advantage. The team with home-ice advantage hosts games 1, 2, 5, and 7, which gives them an early advantage in the series. The entire series format is: 2-2-1-1-1.

Types of Stanley Cup Betting

The Stanley Cup features all the same types of bets as other hockey games throughout the regular season. However, the number of bets available and the odds for these bets will always be at its peak during the Stanley Cup.

Below is a brief description of the different betting options available to you during the Stanley Cup:

Moneyline

A moneyline bet is a straightforward wager on which team will win the match. The favored team is represented with negative (-) odds and the underdog is represented by positive (+) odds. 


Puck Line

The puck line is hockey’s version of the point spread. It usually involves a 1.5 goal spread, meaning that the favorites must win by at least 2 goals or the underdog must win the game or lose by no more than 1 goal. 

Over/Under

The over/under bet is a wager on the total number of goals during a game in the series. The total number is set by the sportsbook, and you make a bet on whether the actual total will be over or under that amount.


Futures

By the time the Stanley Cup is underway, the opportunity to place futures bets is gone. A futures bet is placed before or at the beginning of the season and is typically a bet on who will win the Stanley Cup that season.


Props

Stanley Cup prop bets let you wager on specific instances or outcomes within the game, such as the first to score a goal or the number of saves a goalie will have. The outcome of the game has no effect on prop bets. 


Live bets

Live bets are placed during the game, with odds and lines that are adjusting in real-time. These are tricky bets to master, but can yield high payouts if successful. 

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Best Statistics for Betting on the Stanley Cup

Advanced statistics are the most powerful tool that a bettor can use. Analyzing these stats helps you make the most informed betting decisions possible and gives you a statistical edge over sportsbooks and most other bettors.

Use the advanced statistics below to give yourself an advantage during the next Stanley Cup series:

  • Goals for percentage (GF%) & against percentage (GA%)
  • Corsi & Fenwick Close
  • PDO
  • Save percentage (SV%) at even strength (5v5)

Goals For Percentage (GF%) & Against Percentage (GA%)

GF% measures the percentage of total goals scored by a team during their games. GA% measures the percentage of total goals allowed by a team during their games.

Bettors can use GF% to identify teams that are more likely to outscore their opponents, which is crucial in predicting game outcomes. A high GF% indicates a team with strong offensive capabilities and/or solid defense. Conversely, a lower GA% suggests a team with a strong defense and/or weaker opponents. When comparing teams, looking at their GF% and GA% can give insights into their performance dynamics.

Corsi & Fenwick Close

In order to understand Corsi & Fenwick Close, you need to understand them individually.

  • Corsi – Measure of total shot attempts, including missed shots, shots on goal, and blocked shots. This is used to gauge puck possession and offensive pressure.
  • Fenwick – This is the same measurement as Corsi, except it excludes all blocked shots. 

Corsi & Fenwick Close refers to the same metrics above whenever the game is within one goal in the first two periods or tied in the third. This helps to isolate a team’s performance during competitive scenarios. 

Bettors can use Corsi and Fenwick stats to assess which teams are more dominant in terms of puck possession and creating scoring opportunities. Teams with high Corsi and Fenwick values are often better at controlling play and generating chances, which can translate to more wins. 

PDO (Shooting % + Save %)

PDO is the sum of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. It is typically centered around 100, with values above 100 suggesting a degree of luck or exceptional performance, while values below 100 indicate underperformance or bad luck.

Bettors can use PDO to identify teams that may be over performing or underperforming. A team with a very high PDO might be winning due to unsustainable shooting or save percentages, suggesting potential regression. Conversely, a team with a low PDO might improve if their luck turns around. Bettors can exploit these trends to find value bets on teams likely to regress to the mean.

Save Percentage (SV%) at Even Strength (5v5)

This stat measures the percentage of shots a goalie stops at even strength. It excludes power plays, and penalty kills to provide a clearer picture of a goalie’s performance during regular play.

Bettors can use SV% at even strength to evaluate goaltender performance more accurately. A high SV% at even strength suggests a reliable goalie who can make crucial saves during the most common game situations. 

Bettors can look for matchups where a strong goalie might have an edge over a weaker one, influencing the likely outcome of the game. This stat is particularly useful when betting on totals (over/under) and predicting which team might have a defensive advantage.

Stanley Cup Advanced Betting Tips

There are many ways to give yourself an advantage over the sportsbook during the Stanley Cup. To give yourself an even greater advantage, then consider some of the advanced betting tips:

  • Analyze goaltender performance trends
  • Evaluate coaching strategies
  • Consider special teams’ performance
  • Monitor injuries and player health
  • Analyze travel and scheduling factors
  • Understand team dynamics and intangibles
  • Sign up for handicappers’ picks

Analyze Goaltender Performance trends

The Stanley Cup is the final series of the NHL playoffs, meaning that goaltenders may be fatigued from the long season. This can greatly impact their goaltending performance stats that they’ve displayed so far. 

Be sure to monitor goaltenders’ workloads throughout the season and keep an eye out for any signs of fatigue, such as a sudden increase in the number of goals they allow.

It’s also helpful to look into the goalies’ performance history against similar teams. Looking into their head-to-head statistics for the upcoming opponent is great for gauging potential performance. 

Evaluate Coaching Strategies

Coaching is an underrated aspect of a team’s ability to prepare for the final games. Studying the strategies used by both coaches can help provide context into what to expect from the matchup.

When it comes to coaching strategies for the Stanley Cup, there are two big aspects to monitor:

  • In-game adjustments: A coach’s ability to make effective adjustments during the games or series gives them a huge tactical edge over the other team. Look into the coach’s history to find beneficial adjustments they made throughout the season.
  • Line matchups: In an attempt to counter the strengths of their opponent, many coaches deploy specific line matchups. Knowing how a coach may use their top lines or defensive pairs can give insight into potential game outcomes. 

Consider Special Teams Performance

Teams with strong special teams tend to have a huge advantage. Evaluating how effective each special team is can give you a clearer picture of how they stack up against their opponents.

The discipline of the special teams unit is also crucial. Taking fewer penalties and demonstrating disciplined play styles mitigate the negative impact a team can have on itself.

Monitor Injuries and Player Health

Injuries and illness can greatly affect a game’s outcome. If a star player is injured and is either out for the game or not playing at 100%, this will have a huge impact on other aspects of the game. 

Keep up to date on team news and player injuries. It’s also important to consider the amount of rest and recovery the team has had throughout the NHL playoffs. 

Analyze Travel and Scheduling Factors

Large amounts of travel can negatively impact a team. This travel fatigue can have a huge impact on games, especially in back-to-back scenarios. The frequency of games also plays a huge role in payer fatigue. Teams that have had fewer rest days are more likely to experience player fatigue and injuries. 

Understand Team Dynamics and Intangibles

Hockey is very much a team sport. Understanding a team’s chemistry and overall strategy is very beneficial for making informed betting decisions, especially against teams with opposite strengths and weaknesses.

Leadership and playoff experience also play a huge role. Teams that have players with a wealth of playoff experience are going to have an advantage since those players will be more acclimated to high-pressure situations.

Sign Up for Handicappers’ Picks

If the thought of analyzing advanced metrics and keeping updated on every piece of team and player news overwhelms you, then save yourself the hassle and use a handicapper. A handicapping service will do all of this analysis for you and provide betting picks based on which bets statistically provide the most value. These services usually cost a fee, but good handicappers pay for themselves many times over. 

Bet on the Next Stanley Cup With Confidence

The Stanley Cup is one of the most exciting sporting events of the year. While the two top teams in the league compete for the title of champion, bettors everywhere are cashing in on their successful bets placed throughout the series.

Maximize your winning percentage during the Stanley Cup this season by using our professional handicapping service. We will research and analyze every statistic and scenario needed to provide you with unique betting recommendations that give you the best chance at success. Sign up today and receive instant access to professional betting picks backed by research and data.