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Crush the Competition: Expert Guide to NBA Playoffs Betting Mastery
In our guide to NBA Playoffs betting, we’ll take a look at the format for the series and analyze how that can open up new betting opportunities. We’ll also share some tips for minimizing losses while betting on the NBA Playoffs.
Betting on the Playoff action can be rewarding as long as you’re betting smart, and after this guide, you’ll know everything you need to start placing informed wagers.
Our Winning NBA Playoffs Bets
How the NBA Playoffs Work
The NBA playoffs (April to June) are a multistage tournament held after the regular season to see which team can take it all the way.
During the regular season (October to April), teams compete to win a playoff spot. The top six teams from the Eastern and Western Conference with the best win-loss record immediately qualify for the playoffs.
The remaining four playoff spots are determined by a play-in tournament, involving teams that finished 7th to 10th in each conference. The Play-In tournament is single elimination, with the four best teams advancing to the Playoffs.
Seeding
During the actual Playoffs, all games are a best-of-seven series. Teams are paired based on their seeding within the conference, which ensures teams with better regular-season records face lower-seeded teams.
Teams are not reseeded throughout the bracket, so identifying which teams have better regular-season records will help you see who the favorites are. Not to mention, higher seeds always have home-court advantage.
This can make it difficult for underdogs to pull ahead, but also rewards the best teams in each conference for a good regular season.
How to Bet on NBA Playoffs
In the whole Playoffs, 16 teams are competing for the final spot. Here’s some more information about how you find value at each stage of the Playoffs.
Eastern Conference
When it comes to the Eastern Conference, there’s one team that reigns supreme: the Boston Celtics. They are one of the longest-running teams in the NBA, and won many back-to-back championships in the 1960s. Today, they have 18 NBA Championships (the most recent being in the 2023-24 season) and 7 Eastern Conference Championships under their belts.
The Celtics have always been one of the best teams in the East, but now they’re heating up. As a bettor, you should look to piggyback off their success by anticipating a stellar performance from them in the next season.
Other top teams in the Eastern Conference that you shouldn’t sleep on include the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks.
Western Conference
The Los Angeles Lakers have the most accolades out of any team in the West. They’ve won 19 NBA Championships and appeared in the conference championships 23 times.
The Lakers have many star players, like LeBron James, Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russel, but you don’t win championships by the power of your playmakers alone. Consistency and teamwork are what win titles, so as a bettor, you need to look at the team as a whole instead of at individual players.
Research roster depth and the coaches while you look at key players, and don’t be afraid to bet point spreads. Sometimes the top teams stumble, but the Lakers have a large bank of historical data you can rely on for researching game totals.
Other top teams in the Western Conference include the Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs
NBA Play-In Tournament
The NBA play-in tournament is a shot at playoff glory for teams on the playoff bubble. It involves the teams that finish 7th to 10th in each conference (Eastern and Western) after the regular season. Here are a few key points:
- The 7th seed plays the 8th seed in a single game. The winner gets the coveted 7th seed in the playoffs. The losers of the 7-8 game aren’t out yet. They get another shot at the playoffs.
- The 9th seed plays the 10th seed in a single game. The loser is eliminated from playoff contention.
- The winner of the 9-10 game plays the loser of the 7-8 game. This winner takes home the 8th seed and a spot in the playoffs.
The Play-In tournament is probably one of the best parts of the playoffs, simply because it’s an underdog story. The Play-In is a chance for teams that had a lackluster year to take a stab at the finals, so you can easily find teams to bet on here for underdog value.
It’s also worth noting that higher seeds always have the home-court advantage, so it makes it even tougher for underdog teams to climb the ladder. Just remember
NBA Championship
The NBA Playoffs culminate in the Championship game, where an Eastern Conference team faces off against a Western Conference team in a best-of-seven series.
When it comes to betting on the Championship, there are a few factors you should consider:
- What was the road to the finals like for both teams? Did they struggle to make it to the end?
- What are their play styles? Is one more offensive or defensive? Two offensive teams might lead to a higher-point game, while two defensive teams will likely play it safe.
- Is there a rivalry between the teams? Are they frequently one-upping each other?
Not only do you have the chance to wager all the normal array of bets, but
Things to Consider When Betting The NBA Playoffs
The NBA Playoff season is one of the best opportunities for opportunistic bettors to get ahead. Players have to be at their peak, and team cohesion is a must. That said, don’t fall prey to any common NBA betting mistakes. Instead, make sure you’re following these key tips:
Past Playoff Performance (and Conference Champions)
Earlier, we mentioned the Boston Celtics and how they’re the best team in the Eastern Conference. And, looking at the number of Championships they have, you’d have to agree. But if you dig a little deeper, you’ll find something even more interesting.
The Celtics won the 2024 NBA Championship, but before that they hadn’t won since 2008. Sixteen years without a Championship title doesn’t really inspire confidence.
That’s why it’s important to look past the overall data and focus on each Playoff season as its own entity. Dive into the stats. Did the team at least make it to a final round in the Playoffs? What was the margin of victory for each game? Were the star players on the hardwood during those games?
Thinking less about the big picture can help you identify weaknesses in the sportsbook’s projected odds. If you see that a team has lost all previous Playoff matchups against a rival, but this season they’re doing much better, perhaps it’s time to wager on them. Thinking like this will elevate your betting game.
Advanced Metrics
If you take the above advice a step further, you can start to fill in some of the gaps. Perhaps the team had a weak offense or their star players had poor games. Spend some time looking at the following data points throughout the course of the Playoffs:
- Offensive, Defensive, and Net Ratings
- Effective Field Goal Percentage
- True Shot Percentage
- Turnover Rate
Teams with consistently high eFG% or TS% indicate strong offensive capabilities. This can be valuable when considering betting on over/under point totals or a team’s moneyline to win (especially if facing a team with a lower shooting percentage).
Looking at a team’s season-long averages might not be as valuable as their performance in the last few games or against similar opponents. Teams can adjust their strategies and shooting tendencies throughout the season.
Consider Hedging and Arbitrage Betting
Hedging and arbitrage betting are both advanced strategies, but they can help you find profit regardless of the outcomes of your wagers.
Hedging involves placing a second wager that offsets your initial bet. You win one and lose one, regardless of the game’s outcome. This practice can be tricky, but is often helpful for bettors that aren’t confident in either team’s ability to win.
Arbitrage exploits discrepancies in odds offered by different sportsbooks to guarantee a profit on a small wager. Sportsbook A offers odds of +105 on the Milwaukee Bucks winning, while Sportsbook B offers odds of -110 on the opponent winning. You place a proportional wager on each outcome, guaranteeing a small profit regardless of which team wins.
Both strategies can take a bit to master, but they’re ideal for bettors that are serious about making money.
Handicappers Are Your Friends
There’s often a stigma in the betting community around using a handicapper’s picks or predictions because your win feels like it really isn’t yours. However, putting this stigma aside, you’ll see that handicappers can offer valuable insight into stats and perspectives you hadn’t considered.
Don’t take a handicapper’s word as gospel because even angels can fail, but use their data to your advantage. See what lines they’re looking at and assess the probability of success. The cost to subscribe to a good handicapper is often minuscule compared to the potential profits you can earn from their research.
The Key to Success with NBA Playoffs Betting
NBA Playoffs betting can be equally frustrating and rewarding. To alleviate some of the stress, make sure you’re betting smart by analyzing team and player statistics, checking sportsbooks for better odds, and considering home-team advantage among other metrics.
To take your betting game even further, consider signing up for picks from a handicapper with NBA betting experience. Scores and Stats staffs a team of handicappers with specialties in every sport, so you’re bound to find value for your wagers. Sign up for a premium subscription today to unlock your full betting potential.
