Win the Race: Expert Tips on How to Bet on the Kentucky Derby

If you’re looking for how to bet on the Kentucky Derby, you’ve come to the right place. There’s a lot of pressure on Derby day to place a winning wager, and you can easily become overwhelmed.

After reading the Kentucky Derby betting guide, you’ll come away with all the information you need to make smart bets. We’ll look at a brief history of the Derby, the most popular types of bets to place, as well as provide some tips for first-time bettors.

About the Kentucky Derby

Best Bets for Kentucky Derby Fans

Tips for Betting on the Kentucky Derby

About the Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby is a Grade I stakes race and one of North America’s most important annual Thoroughbred races. It’s also the first leg of the coveted Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing, which includes the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

First run in 1875, the Kentucky Derby is the longest-running sporting event continuously held in the United States. Inspired by England’s Epsom Derby, Colonel Meriwether Lewis Clark played a key role in establishing the race. The first Derby, with a field of 15 horses, was won by a colt named Aristides in front of a crowd of 10,000.

The race takes place on the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky. This tradition holds strong, with only two exceptions in its history, due to World War II and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The race is a test of speed and stamina for three-year-old Thoroughbreds along a 1 ¼ mile track. Only three-year-old Thoroughbred horses are eligible to compete. This ensures a balance between speed developed with maturity and the stamina needed for the demanding race distance.

To qualify for the race, fillies (female horses) and colts (males), must earn points in a series of designated races leading up to the Derby, known as the “Road to the Kentucky Derby”. The top 20-point earners get a spot in the starting gate.

Is it legal to bet on the Kentucky Derby?

Yes, it’s legal in most of the US to wager on the Kentucky Derby. Roughly 40 states allow pari-mutuel horse race betting, which includes the Kentucky Derby.

You’re allowed to wager in-person at the Churchill Downs, as well as online at many sportsbooks such as FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Bovada, and MyBookie.

Best Bets for Kentucky Derby Fans

There are a handful of different wagers you can place on the Kentucky Derby, but the Win, Place, Show wagers are by far the most popular (and easiest to bet on).

As you’ll see from some of our examples, horse racing odds are displayed in fractional odds. For American bettors, this might be a bit confusing. If you’re more comfortable with American odds, you can always quickly convert them using an online odds convertor.

Win

A Win wager in horse racing is a straightforward bet, similar to a moneyline or future wager in other sports.
All you have to do is select the horse you think will win the race outright, as the #1 finisher.
Win bet odds are typically displayed as two numbers, such as 8-5.
Higher odds for a horse indicate a less likely chance of winning, but a potentially bigger payout if it does. Lower odds mean the horse is favored to win, but the payout will be smaller.

Example: If you bet $2 on a horse with 8-5 odds and it wins, you’d typically earn $1.60 for every $1 wagered, plus your original $2 back. So, you’d collect a total of $5.20.

Win wagers are a great option for beginners due to their simplicity. You only need to pick one horse and hope it comes in first place.

Place

A Place wager in horse racing offers a bit more flexibility than a Win wager. Unlike Win, your horse doesn’t necessarily need to win the race for your bet to be successful. As long as it places first or second, you collect a payout.

The reward for a Place wager is typically less than a Win wager because your chances of winning are higher. The payout will depend on the specific odds offered for your chosen horse to place. There’s usually a minimum wager amount required for Place bets, often $2, but it can vary depending on the track or platform.

Example: If you bet $2 on a horse with 8-5 odds and it wins, you’d typically earn $1.60 for every $1 wagered, plus your original $2 back. So, you’d collect a total of $5.20.

Overall, Place wagers are a good choice if you’re new to horse racing or want to increase your odds of winning compared to a Win wager. You get a bit more breathing room with your prediction, but the potential payout is smaller.

Show

The Show wager in horse racing is all about covering your bases and offers the highest chance of winning among the basic bets (Win, Place, Show). You select a single horse that you believe will finish in the top three positions (1st, 2nd, or 3rd).

This bet offers the most flexibility compared to Win and Place. As long as your chosen horse places within the top three, you win regardless of its exact finishing position.

Due to the higher chance of winning, the payout for a Show wager is typically the lowest among the basic bets. The exact amount depends on the odds offered for your horse to finish in the top three.

Example: Imagine you place a $3 bet on a horse with 2-1 odds to Show. If it finishes first, second, or third, you earn around $1 for every $1 wagered, plus your original $3 back. This could result in a total return of $6.

The Show bet is probably the safest option for bettors because it has a higher probability of hitting, but also has a lower payout if you’re betting on a favorite.

Exotic Bets

While Win, Place, and Show wagers have you staking in on only one horse, exotic wagers have you picking more than one horse. Think of exotics as the parlay of horse racing. You must hit each of your selections for your wager to win. Here’s a look at the common exotics you can bet on at the Kentucky Derby:

Exacta: This bet requires you to correctly pick the horses that will finish first and second place in exact order. There are variations like Exacta boxes and keys that allow for more flexibility in your selection.
Trifecta: This bet ups the challenge by asking you to predict the horses that will finish first, second, and third place in exact order. Similar to Exacta, there are Trifecta boxes and keys for more options.
Superfecta: This is the ultimate test of your Kentucky Derby knowledge. Here, you need to correctly predict the horses that will come in first, second, third, and fourth place in exact order.

Futures

Futures for the Kentucky Derby aren’t as common as for other sports. Typically, you’ll be able to place a future on which horse will win the Derby a few months before the actual event. However, we don’t advise placing long futures.

A lot can happen between when you wager and the Derby. Horses can get hurt, be disqualified, or not make enough points to enter the Derby. While the payout might look nice on a future wager, you’re taking on an incredible amount of risk, which isn’t worth it for most bettors.

Props

Props, or proposition bets, take a different approach to Kentucky Derby betting. Instead of focusing on the outright winners and runners-up, they focus on other factors, such as which trainer had a horse win, how long the race will be, etc. Here are a few of the more interesting props.

Winning Trainer: Can you predict which trainer will saddle the Derby winner? This prop lets you choose from the trainers of the entered horses.
Post Position: Will the winner come from a specific part of the starting gate? This prop lets you pick a range of post positions (inside, middle, or outside) where you think the winner will originate.
Running Time: Will the Derby be a fast or slow race? This prop might involve betting on whether the winning time will be above or below a certain threshold.
First-Time Starter: Will an unproven young horse cause an upset and win the Derby? This prop lets you wager on whether the winner will be a horse competing in its first Kentucky Derby.

Props might not always be available at your racebook of choice, and they should be considered an entertainment wager, more than anything. It’s difficult to find research to back up some of these wagers, so your chances of winning aren’t as high.

What’s the Best Way to Bet on the Kentucky Derby for Beginners?

The best way to bet on the Kentucky Derby is whatever wager you feel carries the least risk and the highest reward. That sounds obvious, but you’d be surprised at the number of people who wager on the lowest-rated horse because they see dollar signs.

Beginners should start by conducting a bit of research on their own, and even wager on a few of the Kentucky Derby qualifying races to watch the horses progress. And when it comes time to bet, Win, Place, and Show wagers carry the least risk but can still payout handsomely if you make the right selections. Stick with these wagers initially, and you can sprinkle in some exotics as you become a more confident bettor.

Tips for Betting on the Kentucky Derby

Horse racing is a pulse-pounding sport, but it’s over quickly, so there’s not a lot of time to change wagers or place live bets.

The best way to be a successful Kentucky Derby bettor is to prepare beforehand and come with an action plan. Here are some of our top tips:

Be Wary of Betting the Favorites

Upsets at the Kentucky Derby are common, so betting the favorite is sometimes risky business. In the 2024 Kentucky Derby, Sierra Leone was rated at 3-1 odds as the favorite, and Fierceness also had a favorable outlook. However, Mystik Dan, who was rated 16-1, ended up winning the race, with Sierra Leone in second place.

Obviously, wagers on Sierra Leone to Place or Show would have hit, but your outright Win wagers would have fallen flat. If you’re confident that a favorite will pull through, but don’t want to incur unnecessary risk, betting on Place or Show is ideal.

Read Up on Each Horse’s Racing Style

One of the most important factors to consider when researching Derby horses is their racing style. Front-runners set the pace and hope to maintain their lead throughout. Closers are typically strong finishers with excellent stamina. They rely on the front-runners to tire out and create an opening for a final surge.

Stalkers can adjust their strategy based on the race’s flow. They might make a move for the lead earlier if an opportunity arises, or wait for the homestretch like a closer. And the Presser sits right behind the front-runner, putting constant pressure on them. Pressers aim to tire out the leader and capitalize on their weakness in the later stages.

By looking at historical data, you can see what kinds of horses tend to win the Derby, and assess the style of all the fillies and colts in the current lineup.

Watch the Weather

In the 150 years of the Derby, it has never once been canceled or postponed because of weather. But, that doesn’t mean it’s always blue skies and sunshine, either.

Keep an eye on the weather. If the forecast calls for rain, perhaps bet more conservatively. Horses that have more experience in mud and dirt might do better. If you’re betting on the total run-time of the race, consider that the poor conditions might make the race a bit slower than usual.

While it’s hard for a little rain to damper the Derby fun, it can throw a monkey wrench in your betting plans.

Sometimes Betting is Just Fun

The Kentucky Derby is a massive event, with thousands of people coming from all over the world. The fashion, cuisine, and culture of the race is sometimes the most enjoyable part.

Don’t feel pressure to win all your wagers. If you set a betting budget and acknowledge that the Derby doesn’t have to be stressful, you’ll do a lot better overall. Stress and anxiety never pair well with betting, so take a step back and reconsider your wagers. Are you betting because you badly want to make money? Or are you betting to partake in the culture and have fun?

Get the Inside Scoop on Kentucky Derby Betting

Don’t let the hype around the Kentucky Derby impact your critical betting skills. Use your head, do some research, and place wagers that have low risk, such as Win, Place, and Show. These wagers give you a fighting chance if backed by facts and logic.

One of the best ways to find all the stats and predictions on the Kentucky Derby is to subscribe to a pick or handicapping service. These folks spend their days pouring over numbers to help you place the best wagers possible.

At Scores and Stats, we have a solid group of handicappers who want to help you be successful. Subscribe to our premium betting service to find the best wagers for the Kentucky Derby and show your friends who’s the king of the Triple Crown.