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Unlock Winning Strategies: Expert Guide to MLB Playoff Betting Success
The MLB playoff betting odds start to hit the sportsbook every fall, and baseball bettors everywhere begin their research and planning for what they hope will be their winning bet. While sportsbooks may hold a natural advantage over bettors, there are many effective ways you can swing the odds in your favor.
This MLB playoff betting guide will provide you with everything you need to know to maximize your betting success. You’ll find information about the playoffs and seeding, the best ways to bet on the MLB, and advanced statistics you should be using to inform your betting decisions.
All MLB Playoff Betting Odds
Below are our top picks for the MLB playoffs:
How do the MLB Playoffs Work?
The MLB playoffs typically begin in early October following the end of the regular season. A total of 12 teams make the playoffs, consisting of 6 teams from the American League (AL) and 6 from the National League (NL).
In the early round of the playoffs, opposing teams play a best-of-three series. As the playoffs progress, this expands to a best-of-five series until the World Series which plays to the best of seven. The team with the better regular season matchup is given “home-field advantage.” Since there are an odd number of games, this means that they will play at home for the majority of the series.
For example, if the 3-seeded Pittsburgh Pirates are playing against the 6-seeded Florida Marlins in the Wild Card round, then 2 out of the 3 games would be played in Pittsburgh. For the best-of-five and best-of-seven series, the home team would play in their city for 3 and 4 games, respectively.
Seeding
MLB playoff seeding is split into the AL and NL. Each conference has teams that earn seed numbers 1 through 6, with 1 being the highest-ranked team for that conference. The 1st, 2nd, and 3rd sides for each respective conference are the teams that won their division. The 4th, 5th, and 6th seeds are teams that made the playoffs as wild card teams.
During the first round of the playoffs, the lowest-seeded division winner (3rd seed) plays a best-of-three series against the lowest-seeded wild card team (#3 vs #6). As a result, the #4 and #5 seeds also compete in a best-of-three series. The winners move on to the next round, where the wild card winners play the two top-seeded teams. This continues each round until only two teams remain to compete for the World Series.
Stages of the MLB Playoffs
There are 4 total stages, or rounds, of the MLB playoffs. In order, they go:
- Wild Card series
- Divisional series
- League Championship series
- World Series
Each round increases the total number of games played between the two opponents, starting with a best-of-three series for the first round of the playoffs and ending with a best-of-seven series for the World Series.
Wild Card Series
The Wild Card series is the first round of the playoffs, where the 4 lowest-ranked seeds from each conference play in a best-of-three series to determine who moves on. The two top-ranked seeds from the AL and NL get a bye this week
There’s a potential maximum of 12 games that can be played during the Wild Card round if each series makes it to game three. However, it’s far more likely that at least one series will result in a sweep (when one team wins the series without losing to the other team).
In the Wild Card series, it’s a good idea to carefully weigh each team’s performance before and during the games. Favorites tend to do well in the Wild Card, but sometimes the underdogs manage to turn the series around. The pressure to secure a divisional spot is high, so teams will push themselves to the limit.
Divisional Series
The Divisional round bumps the series up to best-of-five games and features the top-seeded teams from the conferences playing the winners of the Wild Card round.
Just like before, the AL and NL teams remain separate, and the series are played within their own conference. Winners of this round move on to the League Championship series.
The Divisional series is a good time to place a Divisional winner future bet. Even if you wait until the beginning of the series (as opposed to months in advance), you’ll be able to make an informed wager based on each team’s performance. The odds on Divisional winners are not bad and can make you some money on a conservative wager amount.
League Championship Series
The League Championship round is a face-off of the two remaining teams in the AL and NL. This is a best-of-five series, with the two winners advancing on for a chance to compete in the World Series.
Not only can you wager on the outright winner of the League Championship, but you can also wager on how many games will be played, if there will be a sweep, or if there will be any extra innings.
World Series
The World Series is the final series of the season, where the two winners of each conference playoff round compete to see who will be crowned the champion. This is a best-of-seven series, meaning that the first team to achieve 4 victories is the winner.
The World Series is a massive event with a ton of betting action. With an average viewership of 9.11 million, you can always expect to see sportsbooks getting creative during this time of year.
Best Way to Bet on the MLB Playoffs
There are many ways that you can bet on the MLB playoffs this year. With so many sportsbooks offering betting lines for the games, there’s no shortage of places to stake your wagers.
Once you select your sportsbooks, the best thing you can do is begin research. If you intend to bet on the over/under for the total number of hits by a team, then start researching the team’s hitting statistics cross-referenced with the opposing teams’ pitching statistics.
We also recommend diversifying your betting portfolio. Instead of only betting on the moneyline, take a stab at a prop bet or other wager that may have a bigger payout.
Lastly, always make sure you’re shopping around for the betting lines offered at different sportsbooks. Often, sportsbooks will have different odds posted for the same bets. This is a great opportunity to find the most potential value for your wagers.
Props for the MLB Playoffs
The MLB playoffs provide plenty of opportunities for prop betting. Unlike some sports, baseball has a plethora of players and positions, meaning that the number of prop bets is much larger than other sports.
There are a few different types of prop bets that you will find for the MLB playoffs, including bets that are specific to players, teams, games, and even entire series.
Below are some examples of each.
Player-Specific Prop Bets
- Total Home Runs by a Player: Bet on whether a specific player will hit over or under a certain number of home runs in a game.
- Total Strikeouts by a Pitcher: Wager on whether a starting pitcher will record over or under a set number of strikeouts.
- Player to Hit a Home Run: Bet on whether a specific player will hit at least one home run in the game.
- Player to Record an RBI: Bet on whether a particular player will record at least one RBI (run batted in) during the game.
- Total Hits by a Player: Bet on whether a specific player will have over or under a certain number of hits.
Team-Specific Prop Bets
- Total Runs by a Team: Wager on whether a team will score over or under a certain number of runs in a game.
- First Team to Score: Bet on which team will score the first run in the game.
- Team to Hit the Most Home Runs: Bet on which team will hit more home runs in a game.
- Team to Lead After a Specific Inning: Bet on which team will be leading at the end of a particular inning (e.g., after the 5th inning).
Game-Specific Prop Bets
- Total Runs Scored in the First Inning: Bet on whether the total runs scored in the first inning will be over or under a set number.
- Winning Margin: Bet on the margin by which a team will win the game (e.g., a specific number of runs or ranges like 1-2 runs, 3-4 runs).
- Exact Score: Bet on the exact final score of the game.
- Inning of First Home Run: Bet on which inning the first home run of the game will be hit.
- Total Hits + Runs + Errors: Bet on whether the combined total of hits, runs, and errors in the game will be over or under a set number.
Series-Specific Prop Bets
- Series Winner: Bet on which team will win the playoff series.
- Series Correct Score: Bet on the exact outcome of the series in terms of games won (e.g., Team A to win 4-2).
- Series MVP: Bet on which player will be named the MVP of the series.
- Total Games Played in the Series: Bet on the total number of games that will be played in the series (e.g., over or under a set number).
Using Advanced Statistics to Bet on the MLB Playoffs
Advanced statistics are the best way to give yourself an advantage over sportsbooks and other bettors. These complex data breakdowns provide you with all the context you need to make informed betting decisions and ensure that you’re giving yourself the best statistical possibility of winning the bet you place.
There are a few types of advanced statistics that can prove useful while betting on the MLB playoffs, including:
- Pitching stats
- Hitting stats
- Fielding stats
- Base-running stats
- Team-based stats
- Situational stats
Pitching Statistics
Advanced pitching statistics give you better insight into the trends and patterns found in a team or player’s pitching performance. This can have a huge impact on many aspects of the game, including the total number of hits, walks, and the final score.
Some of the most beneficial advanced pitching statistics are listed below.
- FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): Measures a pitcher’s effectiveness at preventing home runs, walks, hit-by-pitches, and causing strikeouts, independent of fielding.
- xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): Adjusts FIP by normalizing the home run to fly ball ratio, providing a more predictive measure.
- SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): Accounts for balls in play, batted ball types, and the interaction of those types with strikeouts and walks.
- BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play): Indicates how often a ball in play goes for a hit, which can reveal luck or defensive skill.
- K-BB% (Strikeout Minus Walk Percentage): Measures a pitcher’s ability to control the game by subtracting their walk percentage from their strikeout percentage.
Hitting Statistics
Advanced hitting statistics, also called batting statistics, examine the total performance of a team or player’s performance at the plate. Just like pitching statistics, this will have a direct impact on the game and its outcome.
- wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average): Assigns different values to different methods of reaching base, providing a more comprehensive measure of a hitter’s offensive value.
- wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): Measures a player’s offensive contributions, normalized to league average (100) and adjusted for park factors.
- ISO (Isolated Power): Indicates a hitter’s power by measuring extra bases per at bat, highlighting players more likely to hit for extra bases.
- BABIP: As with pitchers, it can indicate whether a hitter has been lucky or unlucky.
- Hard Hit Rate: Percentage of balls hit with a high exit velocity, indicating how well a player is hitting the ball.
Fielding Statistics
Fielding statistics are an underrated aspect of MLB playoff betting. While most bettors focus on the hitting performance, there is just as much benefit to be had through looking at a team or player fielding statistics. This gives you a good idea of how their defense operates and what you might expect in any given matchup.
- UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating): Measures a fielder’s overall defensive performance by accounting for range, arm, double plays, and errors.
- DRS (Defensive Runs Saved): Quantifies a player’s total defensive value in runs saved.
Base Running Statistics
Base running stats are another underrated aspect of MLB betting, and examines the effectiveness of a team’s ability to impact the game while being on the bases.
- BsR (Base Running Runs): Measures a player’s value on the base paths in terms of runs above or below average.
- SB% (Stolen Base Percentage): Indicates a player’s success rate in stealing bases.
Team-Based Statistics
Baseball is one of the most team-based sports there is. While a team may have an all-star or two, the team’s overall performance will have a much greater impact on the outcome of a game. Knowing these advanced team-based stats will help inform you on nearly any bet you plan to make for an MLB playoff game.
- Pythagorean Expectation: Uses runs scored and runs allowed to estimate a team’s expected winning percentage, which can indicate if a team is over- or under-performing.
- BaseRuns: Provides a team’s expected record based on the sequencing of hits and walks, offering a more predictive view of team performance.
Situational Statistics
If you like prop betting, then situation stats are your best friend. Reviewing advanced situational stats can help you cash in on great value by understanding the most likely outcome of any given situation that might occur.
- Clutch: Measures how well a player or team performs in high-leverage situations compared to normal situations.
- wRC+ in High Leverage Situations: Indicates a player’s offensive performance specifically in high-stakes moments.
- Pitching Performance in High Leverage Situations: Similar to clutch, but focuses on pitchers and how they fare in critical game moments.
Coverage of All the MLB Playoffs
Looking for additional content on the MLB playoffs? Be sure to check out our blog for informational posts.
Knock One Out of the Park For Us
Betting on the MLB playoffs can be equal parts exciting and profitable. With so many individual players and situations present throughout these series of games, there is an endless amount of betting action out there for avid baseball fans and bettors.
When you use advanced metrics to inform your betting decisions, you’re giving yourself the best possible chance for profitability. If you’re looking to save yourself some time and view advanced statistics without doing the research, we can help! Our premium handicapping service is what you need to give yourself an extra advantage during this year’s MLB playoffs.
Sign up for our premium handicapping service and gain access to advanced metrics, useful insights, and recommendations on the best bets to take.
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