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Winning Big: Your Ultimate Guide to NFL Prop Betting
When it comes to prop betting, there is no better market than the NFL. Not only does the regular season offer weekly prop betting opportunities, but the Super Bowl is the pinnacle of sports betting that comes with a huge selection of prop bets.
This guide will teach you everything you need to know about NFL prop betting, including how to find the best NFL prop bets, the types of prop bets that are offered, tips for maximizing your success rate, and more.
Why the NFL is the Best for Prop Betting
For prop betting fans, there is no better season than the NFL football season. With prop bets offered for nearly every game on the schedule, there is no shortage of action to jump in on. But why is the NFL the best sport for finding prop bets?
First and foremost, football is the king in the sports betting scene. Every game attracts a large audience of both viewers and bettors. As a result, every sportsbook offers as many betting lines as possible. This means that prop bets are always on the menu, which isn’t the case for every sport.
Another reason the NFL is the best sport for prop betting is that there are plenty of opportunities for individual players to perform well despite a bad team performance. And with so many stats to reference in past games, sportsbooks can create accurate odds for the bets they offer.
If you’re looking for a great sport with the best prop bet selection, then we highly recommend betting on the NFL.
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How to Find the Best NFL Prop Bets
Finding the best NFL prop bets will take a bit of effort on your part, but there are many simple steps you can take to guarantee you’re getting the most out of your efforts.
Analyze Team & Player Stats
Become a subject expert when it comes to team and player stats and you’ll find yourself winning more bets than you lose. Having a good understanding of historical data is a great way to find the most valuable prop bets that a sportsbook offers.
You can find previous seasons’ stats directly on the NFL website. These can be a great reference if you plan on placing any futures prop bets, such as total passing yards for Patrick Mahomes. We can see below that he has never thrown for less than 4,000 yards in a season since becoming a starter in the NFL. This helps provide you with a general benchmark for his upcoming potential season-long stats.
Read Professional Picks
Professional handicappers earn their reputation for a reason. Keep up to date on what the pros are picking for their most valuable bets and learn from their past success and failures. There are also many handicapping services available that will help you make the most informed decision possible.
Professionals do a lot of the research for you and then provide you with tips and recommendations. Some professionals specialize in specific sports, so be sure to review your options when taking advice.
Monitor Game Conditions
Prop bets are unpredictable by nature, and poor weather conditions only amplify this. Keep an eye on weather reports and consider the weather when analyzing a matchup. Poor weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL teams’ strategies as well as individual player performances.
This context can help you in multiple ways. Poor weather means that taking the under on passing yards is a safer bet. Meanwhile, it increases the chances of a running back seeing an increased workload, meaning that the over on rushing yards will gain value.
Check Multiple Sportsbooks
With so many sportsbooks available to choose from, you should never settle for just one. Although most sportsbooks will have the same NFL prop bets available, some of them will likely offer different odds. As a result, you can shop around to find the best odds for the bet you want to place.
Sportsbooks also run frequent promotions to encourage bettors to sign up. Sometimes these promotions will provide you with risk-free bets that you can use on props.
Review Injury Report
If you’ve ever played fantasy football before, you likely understand the pain of not keeping an eye on the injury report and having it cost you big. This same thing applies to prop betting, and even injuries elsewhere on the roster can have an impact on another player’s performance.
For instance, if you place a bet on a running back having a huge game, you might be disappointed later on if you learn that two of his linemen are going to miss the game due to injury. Although no injury has occurred to the specific player you’re betting on, this injury elsewhere on the team will have a huge impact on the running back’s performance.
Types of NFL Prop Bets
When you’re looking through a sportsbook’s selection of NFL prop bets, you will notice you have a few different options. All the prop bets that are offered can be broken down into types, including game props, team props, player props, and more.
NFL Game Props
NFL game props are a selection of bets that let you wager on specific outcomes or occurrences within the game. The outcome of the game is irrelevant for these bets as long as the requirements are met before the game finishes.
Some examples of game prop bets include:
- Total number of field goals made by both teams
- Will the game go into overtime?
- Will a touchdown be scored on the first drive?
NFL game props are great for new and experienced bettors, and add an exciting twist to your Sunday.
NFL Season-Long Props
Some sportsbooks offer season-long prop bets (also known as futures bets) for the NFL, which allow you to bet on a season-long milestone for an individual player or team. These prop bets usually have the highest-paying odds as they are extremely unpredictable due to injuries, weather conditions, and other external factors.
Some examples of season-long prop bets include:
- Total receiving yards from a specific team
- Total rushing, passing, or receiving yards for a specific player
- League MVP winner
NFL Team Props
Team prop bets allow you to bet on outcomes or occurrences related to one team’s performance during a game. Like other prop bets, the outcome of the game doesn’t matter as long as the bet you made hits.
Here are some example of team-specific prop bets:
- First team to score – This prop bet lets you bet on which team will score points first in the game. This can come from a touchdown, field goal, or safety.
- Team total touchdowns – Bet on the number of touchdowns one team will score throughout the game. Bettors can wager whether the team will score over or under a number set by the sportsbook.
- Team total points – Bet over or under on the total number of points a team will score throughout the game. Very similar to the total touchdowns bet.
- Team to score last – This bet is the opposite of the first team to score. Instead, you place a wager on which team will put points on the board last in the game.
NFL Player Props
Player props are some of the most exciting bets a sportsbook has to offer. After all, your entire bet rests on the shoulder of one player’s performance, and die-hard fans can gain an edge by studying historical data for specific players.
Most of the player props for a game involve their performance in one of the following categories:
- Total passing yards
- Total rushing yards
- Total receiving yards
- Total receptions
- Total touchdowns
Bettors who can analyze player matchups
Super Bowl Props
No single sporting event in the world offers as much prop betting action as the Super Bowl. Every February, bettors everywhere flock to sportsbooks to view the huge selection of prop bets available.
Not only does the Super Bowl provide a wide array of player-performance bets, but they also feature a long list of exotic prop bets that you only find exclusively during the Super Bowl. Some examples include:
- Betting over or under on the total length of the national anthem
- Betting on the coin toss result
- Betting on the Super Bowl MVP
NFL Draft Props
The NFL draft is known to provide some unexpected entertainment. As a result, some sportsbooks offer prop bets for the draft. However, these are not as common as other NFL prop bets, so it may take some digging to find a sportsbook offering odds.
Some NFL draft prop bets include:
- Will a wide receiver be taken in the first 5 picks?
- Will there be more than one trade in the 1st round?
- Will a drafted player mention a sponsorship?
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Tips for Betting on NFL Props
Betting on NFL props is similar to any other form of betting – the sportsbook will always have an advantage over the bettor. However, this doesn’t mean that you can’t be profitable from your efforts. Below are some tips for maximizing your success when betting on NFL props.
- Research Player & Team Stats – Statistics heavily influence the lines set for prop bets since most of the NFL prop bets offered are player and team-based. Understanding the data is the best way to understand the value being offered by the sportsbooks’ odds.
- Focus on Expected Value – Consider your probability estimate that an outcome is likely to occur, and compare that to the odds offered by the sportsbook. If you’re confident in a bet you want to place, find the sportsbook offering the most profitable odds so you can maximize your potential winnings.
- Diversify Your Bets – Diversifying your bets is a good way to help manage risk and find valuable opportunities. Try to spread your prop bets across different games and bet types.
- Manage Your Bankroll – Set a reasonable budget when you begin prop betting and never chase your losses. Instead, try to find any trends or reasoning behind your low success rate.
- Track Your Wins & Losses – Keeping a record of your previous bets and their outcomes helps you manage your bankroll and identify your strengths and weaknesses. Even a simple spreadsheet will help you visualize your results and identify mistakes.
- Pick a Strategy – It might sound like simple advice, but people who jump into prop betting with no strategy are far more likely to experience loss early on and give up. Have a sound strategy and budget going into it and be prepared to lose some bets – it’s part of the process!
NFL Prop Cheat Sheet and Picks
To summarize, the NFL is well-known for having a wide selection of prop bets available at numerous sportsbooks. With a handful of different bet types and hundreds of individual players to bet on, there is a perfect prop bet for every bettor out there. With enough research and analysis, you can benefit from your extensive knowledge of the NFL.
NFL prop bets can be found at nearly every sportsbook physically and online. Action can be found during the off-season as well, and some of the best value for futures bets can be found right before the season begins.
If you’re looking to win more bets, sign up for our premium handicapping service and gain access to all the data and information you need to make winning bets. Gain an edge on sportsbooks and increase your overall win rate so you can keep placing winning bets.
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