Guide to French Open Betting

As the second Grand Slam tournament of the year, the French Open is unique. Hundreds of competitors gather to face off on the notorious clay court of Stade Roland Garros in Paris. The unique conditions make French Open betting more challenging, but also more rewarding.

In this guide, we’ll take a look at the best strategies, picks, wagers, and tips for betting on the French Open. You can find success as long as you spend the time to look at the proper stats and make informed wagers.

French Open Betting Odds

How to Bet on the French Open

Advanced French Open Betting Statistics

French Open Betting Tips

French Open Betting Odds

Understanding the French Open

The French Open, also known as Roland Garros after the French aviator of the same name, is an annual Grand Slam tournament that takes place in late May. The event is held in Paris, France, in the Stade Roland Garros.

The French Open is the second Grand Slam chronologically, following the Australian Open and preceding Wimbledon and the US Open. It is the only Grand Slam tournament that’s played on a clay court.

To participate in the French Open, players must be invited or qualify through events leading up to the Open. The tournament organizers also have Wildcard slots for promising new players or special circumstances (such as return from injury).

Between the men’s and women’s singles and doubles, around 384 players qualify each year, though participation is often lower due to withdrawals. The tournament also features wheelchair events and junior events.

How to Bet on the French Open

Sportsbooks offer the same selection of wagers on the French Open as they do for other tennis betting events. You’ll find odds on outright winners, set winners, and props. Here’s a brief look at the most popular wagers for the French Open.

Match Outcome (Moneyline): This is the simplest bet, where you choose the winner of a specific match (e.g., Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal).

Set Spread: This predicts the margin of victory in sets. A negative number favors the favorite to win by more than the spread, while a positive number favors the underdog to win by less than the spread or win outright.

Over/Under on Games: This focuses on the total number of games played in a match (e.g., Over 3.5 sets for Alcaraz vs. Sinner or Under 4.5 sets for Djokovic vs. Nadal).

Props: These are wagers on specific events within a match that may or may not occur, independent of the final winner. Examples include:

Will there be a tie-break in the first set (Yes/No)?
Which player will win the first set (Alcaraz or Sinner)?
Will there be a retirement due to injury (Yes/No)?

Advanced French Open Betting Statistics

All the players at the French Open have a ton of stats in their portfolio, but which should you be looking at? Win rate and similar metrics are fine, but if you want to get a more complete look at each player’s ability, you should consider the following:

Second Serve Points Won

The second serve points won (SSPO%), is the outcome of points from a player’s second serve. Second serves are often overlooked, but when you pair SSPO% with other metrics, you get a pretty good look at a player’s follow-through ability.

Imagine Djokovic (known for a strong first serve) is facing off against Tsitsipas (known for a less consistent second serve). Here’s how SSPO% could be used:

If Djokovic has a historically high SSPO%, the game might be in his favor. This might favor
If Tsitsipas has been struggling with his second serve recently, it strengthens Djokovic’s position.
However, if Tsitsipas is a strong returner in general, it might lessen the impact of Djokovic’s good SSPO%

By looking at these factors together, you can make a more informed decision about the potential impact of SSPO% on the match outcome.

Winner-to-Unforced Error Ratio

The winner-to-unforced error ratio (W/UFE), is a common metric where winners are divided by unforced errors. A higher ratio generally indicates a more aggressive and effective player.

While winners are good, too many unforced errors can be costly. Look for players with a W/UFE ratio that reflects a balance between aggressive shot-making and minimizing mistakes. An aggressive player with a high winner count might struggle against a skilled defender who can neutralize their power. Conversely, a player with a good baseline game and lower winner count could exploit an opponent prone to unforced errors.

For example, a player with a historically good W/UFE on clay courts facing an opponent with a high winner count and a high UFE will still have the upper hand. Unless the opponent is serving extremely well, then the game leans in the first player’s favor.

Forehand/Backhand Winners

One of the core factors you should look at when assessing players for bettability is whether they have a stronger forehand or backhand.

The two-handed backhand is generally more effective on clay courts, like those at Stade Roland Garros, due to its stability in handling high-bouncing balls. Look for players with a strong backhand winner count on clay.

Analyze how a player’s dominant side aligns with their court positioning strategy. If a player with a strong forehand likes to hit their forehand side, it might be less effective if their opponent anticipates it.

Similarly, a player with a strong backhand winner count might struggle against someone who can consistently force them to play forehands.

Break Point Conversion Rate

Break point conversion rate (BPR) is used to measure a player’s effectiveness in capitalizing on opportunities to break their opponent’s serve. If a player has 10 break point opportunities throughout a match and wins 6 of them, their BPR for that match would be (6 converted / 10 total) x 100% = 60%.

Anything above 60% is considered high and means the player is effective at taking advantage of break point opportunities and putting pressure on their opponent. A low BPR means the player struggles to convert break points, even when given the chance.

For the French Open, it’s important to wager on players who have a consistent record of high BPR. Top seeds play lower seeds, so underdogs need to be able to convert break points to be successful.

French Open Betting Tips

Before you place a wager on the French Open, make sure that your betting strategy includes the following tips:

Know the Court (Psst, it’s Clay)

You’ve probably figured it out by now, but the French Open has a clay court. Why does that matter?

Clay is a slower court surface compared to hard courts or grass. The ball bounces higher and travels slower, making powerful serves and volleys less effective. Due to the slower court, points tend to be longer and more focused on baseline rallies, requiring players to be fit, consistent, and skilled in constructing points.

Players who excel at baseline rallies, topspin, and defensive skills tend to perform better on clay. These players are often referred to as “clay court specialists” (e.g., Rafael Nadal). Clay rewards players who can defend well, anticipate their opponent’s shots and counterpunch effectively.

Analyze Each Player’s Style

Analyzing how styles clash can help you predict potential advantages or disadvantages for each player.

An aggressive player with high winners might struggle against a defender who can neutralize their power. Or, if a player struggles with their second serve and faces a strong returner, there’s a higher chance of breaks of serve, potentially favoring the returner.

And a final example: if a player relies heavily on their forehand but their opponent can consistently force them to play backhands, it weakens their advantage.

Before betting on a tennis pro, it’s important to identify what their strengths and weaknesses are so you can put them in perspective with their opponents. Upsets are common, so even the best players in the world can struggle against someone who can counter their strengths.

Don’t Just Focus on Men’s and Women’s

The main events at the French Open are singles and doubles for both men and women, but don’t let those consume all your attention. The French Open also has wheelchair and junior tennis games, and these games often have fewer people betting on them compared to the main professional events.

With less public attention, there might be opportunities to identify players who are undervalued by sportsbooks, leading to potentially higher payouts if your bet wins.

However, access to detailed information and statistics for wheelchair and junior players can be a bit sparse. Sometimes you’ll be going in with very little information, which can be risky. Plus, the junior players are still developing their skills, so they won’t be as consistent as pro players. But at the end of the day, if you’re willing to take the risk, there’s value to be had on these events.

Use a Handicapping Service for Pro Picks

Finally, we’d recommend subscribing to a handicapping service to help find valuable betting opportunities. Handicappers have a wealth of information at their fingertips, as well as multiple years of experience predicting the French Open.

If you’re an intermediate bettor, you might find yourself disagreeing with a handicapper’s picks, and that’s okay. You can find value in their stats by looking at the trend lines they’re betting along. Do they always wager the favorite? If so, how does that turn out for them? If they have an 80% win rate on those types of wagers, you might take a leaf out of their book.

Handicapping can help you find new ways of thinking about the French Open, and can even reveal some profitable opportunities.

Take Your French Open Betting to the Next Level

The French Open is unique among the Grand Slam tournaments because it’s played on a clay court. As such, bettors need to change their strategies to focus on players with more control and consistency over raw power.

By analyzing second-serve win percentages and break point conversion rates, you’ll get a better idea of how a player will perform at the French Open.

To level up your game, you should sign up for a handicapping service. Scores and Stats offers a premium subscription to our handicapping data, which includes picks on the French Open and every other Grand Slam tournament as well. Our bettors are constantly crunching the numbers to help give you the best chance at success.