NHL Playoffs Betting Odds

Below are the most recent odds for the upcoming NHL playoffs:

How the NHL Playoffs Work

An understanding of the NHL playoffs structure is important to fully comprehend the amount of betting action that will be available. While the NHL has a similar playoff format to other sports, such as the NFL, there are some key differences that are important to know.

How to Bet on the NHL Playoffs

Betting on the NHL playoffs is similar to betting on any other sport. All you need to do is sign up for a sportsbook, deposit some money, and place your bets.

When you go to place a bet, there are several bet types to choose from. These include: 

• Moneyline – Moneyline bets are straightforward. Simply select the team you believe will win a matchup and place your wager. 

• Puck Line – A puck line in hockey is similar to betting on the point spread for other sports. For a puck line bet, the favored team must win by more than a specified number of goals (typically 1.5).

• Over/Under – The over/under bet is another simple bet to understand. All you need to do is bet on whether the final score will be over or under the specified score set by the sportsbook.

• Futures – A futures bet is a riskier bet, but has a nice payoff for bettors who manage to accurately predict outcomes in the future. For the NHL playoffs, futures bets typically begin at the start of the regular season. 

• Props – The NHL playoffs are loaded with prop bets, which are bets that allow you to bet on specific outcomes or occurrences within a game that are not affected by the final outcome. Most of the time, prop bets focus on one specific player or team’s performance. 

Advanced Statistics for Informed NHL Playoff Wagers

Before you place a wager on the NHL Playoffs, take some time to brush up on the data. Using advanced stats and other metrics can help you increase your chances of success. Here are some of the statistics you should be looking at, and how you can use them for betting.

Team Stats

Leveraging advanced team statistics is great for informing your bets that depend on a team’s performance or the game’s final outcome. Some of the most helpful team statistics are listed below.

PDO (Plus/Minus Differential)

PDO is the sum of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage at even strength. It is often used as an indicator of luck, as extreme values (significantly above or below 100) tend to regress toward the mean over time.

How to use it for betting: Teams with unusually high or low PDO may be over performing or underperforming. Bettors can anticipate regression to the mean, predicting potential changes in future performance.

Corsi & Fenwick

The Corsi & Fenwick statistics are similar. This measures all shot attempts (including goals, shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots) for and against a team while at even strength. Fenwick is the same thing, but it excludes shots that are blocked.

How to use it for betting: Since these metrics are used to gauge puck possession and overall team performance, they can be used to identify teams that are more likely to sustain or improve their performance (or those who may decline).

Faceoff Win Percentage

The faceoff win percentage is the percentage of faceoffs a team or specific player wins. This is important for controlling possession and setting up plays, especially in critical situations such as power plays, penalty kills, and so on.

How to use it for betting: Teams with high faceoff win percentages may have an edge in maintaining possession and controlling the flow of the game, which can be critical in tight matchups.

Goaltending Stats

Goaltending stats are a great indicator of a team’s defense – more specifically, the goalie’s ability to prevent scoring in his net. These advanced stats are similar to the team stats and help you make informed betting decisions during the NHL playoffs. 

Save Percentage (SV%)

The save percentage is the percentage of shots on goal that a goaltender stops. This is a key indicator of a goaltender’s performance.

How to use it for betting: Bettors can evaluate goalies’ consistency and performance trends to predict their potential impact on a game’s outcome. Teams with high SV% are generally more reliable defensively.

Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)

GSAx is a metric that compares the number of goals a goalie is expected to allow based on the quality and quantity of shots faced to the actual number of goals allowed. This indicates a goaltender’s performance relative to the difficulty of shots they faced.

How to use it for betting: Goalies with high GSAx are performing better than expected, often key to a team’s success. Bettors can use GSAx to identify underrated or overrated goaltending.

Quality Start Percentage

The quality start percentage is the percentage of games where a goaltender’s performance gives their team a better-than-average chance to win the game. Defined as a start with a save percentage above the league average or, if facing fewer than 20 shots, a save percentage above .885.

How to use it for betting: Consistently high-quality start percentages indicate reliable goaltending. Bettors can factor in the likelihood of a goaltender providing a strong performance.

Power Play Percentage (PPP)

The PPP is the percentage of power play opportunities that result in a goal. It reflects a team’s efficiency with the man advantage.

How to use it for betting: High PPP suggests a strong power play unit that can capitalize on opponents’ penalties. Bettors can look at matchups to see if a team’s power play strength can exploit an opponent’s penalty kill weaknesses.

Penalty Kill Percentage (PK%)

The penalty kill percentage is the percentage of opponents’ power plays that a team successfully prevents from scoring. This helps indicate the effectiveness of a team’s penalty-killing unit.

How to use it for betting: A strong PK% indicates a team’s ability to defend against power plays, which can be crucial in tight games. Bettors can compare a team’s PK% with their opponent’s PPP to assess special teams matchups.

NHL Playoffs Betting Strategies: The Zig Zag Theory

The Zig Zag Theory is a popular betting strategy often applied to the NHL playoffs (as well as NBA playoffs), where the idea is to bet on the team that lost the previous game in the series. 

The rationale behind this theory is that teams, particularly in high-stakes playoff scenarios, tend to make strong adjustments and exert greater effort following a loss to avoid falling further behind in a best-of-seven series. In this context, the series alternates home and away games in a structured format, such as 2-2-1-1-1 for home-away splits. The theory suggests betting on the team that lost the previous game because they are expected to be more motivated and will make strategic adjustments to counter the opponent’s strengths and exploit weaknesses revealed in the previous game.

For example, in the 2019 NHL Playoffs Stanley Cup Final between the St. Louis Blues and the Boston Bruins, the Bruins won Game 1. According to the Zig Zag Theory, a bettor would place a bet on the Blues for Game 2, who then won to even the series. After the Bruins won Game 3, betting on the Blues again for Game 4 would have resulted in a win, as they took that game. 

Similarly, in the 2021 NHL Playoffs Semifinals between the Montreal Canadiens and the Vegas Golden Knights, the Knights won Game 1, and following the theory, a bettor would bet on the Canadiens for Game 2, who then won. After the Canadiens won Game 3, betting on the Knights following their Game 3 loss would have resulted in a win, as they took Game 4.

While the Zig Zag Theory can provide a structured approach to betting, it’s important to consider other factors such as team form, injuries, home-ice advantage, and matchup specifics. The current form of teams and any injuries to key players can heavily influence the outcome of games. 

Teams playing at home might have a better chance of winning due to crowd support and familiarity with the playing surface. Some teams might simply match up better against others, making the Zig Zag Theory less applicable. Additionally, the deeper the series goes (e.g., Game 6 or 7), the more intense and unpredictable games can become. 

The Zig Zag Theory offers a useful framework for NHL playoff betting by capitalizing on the natural ebb and flow of a series, but it should be used with other analysis and betting strategies to account for the full range of variables that can influence the outcome of playoff games.

Hoist Your Own Trophy this NHL Playoffs Season

The NHL playoffs feature a large number of games that all offer exciting betting action. With the regular season in the books, there is a ton of statistics and data available to help you make the most informed betting decisions possible.
If you’re looking to save time on research and analysis, then consider signing up for our premium handicapping service. We’ll do the hard work for you and provide you with expert recommendations on which bet to take. Let our experience speak for itself and maximize your winnings this year.