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US Open Golf Betting Guide
The US Open is golf’s ultimate test. It’s also a bettor’s toughest challenge. This US Open golf betting guide is your roadmap to success.
We’ll break down how to analyze the course, brush up on player stats, and explore betting tips. Learn how to identify potential winners, spot value bets, and weather the storm of this demanding major. Get ready to elevate your US Open betting game.
US Open Golf Betting Odds
Understanding the US Open
The US Open is one of the largest golf tournaments of the year, making it a great opportunity for golf bettors to find value. Before we run through the types of golf bets and statistics, let’s run through how the tournament works:
Where and When: The US Open is held annually in mid-June. The tournament location changes each year, with some of the most iconic golf courses in the United States hosting the event. In 2024, the event was played at the Pinehurst Resort in Pinehurst, North Carolina.
The Tournament: The US Open is a four-round, 72-hole stroke-play championship. This means players compete against the course, trying to achieve the lowest total score over four rounds. The player with the lowest score at the end wins. After the first two rounds (36 holes), there’s a “cut”. Only the top 60 players and ties advance to the final two rounds.
The Players: Both professional and amateur golfers can participate in the US Open. To qualify as an amateur, a player must have a USGA Handicap Index of 1.4 or lower. Many of the world’s top professional golfers compete in the US Open, making it one of the most prestigious tournaments in golf.
Rules: The US Open is renowned for its challenging course setup. The USGA, the governing body of the tournament, is known for setting up courses with firm and fast conditions, thick rough, and penalizing hazards. This makes it extremely difficult to score well compared to regular PGA Tour events.
Player Statistics for US Open Golf Betting
The first stage of research should always be around the players themselves. This includes not only looking at their overall performance records but at some specific aspects as well. Here are a few of the areas you should focus on for US Open bets.
Fairways Hit Percentage
Fairway hit percentage measures the number of times a player hits the fairway with their first shot on a par 4 or par 5 hole. It’s expressed as a percentage.For example, if a player hits the fairway 12 times out of 18 opportunities on par 4 and par 5 holes, their fairway hit percentage is 66.7%.
This statistic is crucial in golf, especially in tournaments like the US Open where accurate driving is essential for success. A high fairways hit percentage is essential to avoid costly recovery shots.
Once the course for the US Open is announced, compare player performance on similar course conditions (firm fairways, rough length) to identify players who might excel at the US Open.
Firm greens often mean less roll-out on approach shots. Accurate drives are even more critical to give players a good look at the green.
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Around the Green measures a golfer’s performance on shots played within 30 yards of the green. This includes chips, pitches, and bunker shots. It calculates the difference between a player’s score in that area compared to the field average.
The US Open is notorious for its challenging course conditions, often featuring thick rough and firm, fast greens. This makes accurate approach shots difficult, and players frequently find themselves in challenging positions around the green.
By analyzing a player’s Strokes Gained: Around the Green statistic, bettors can identify players who are more likely to overcome challenges and potentially outperform expectations in the US Open. For example, a player with exceptional short-game skills can often salvage par or even birdie from difficult lies.
Bogey Avoidance
Bogey Avoidance measures a player’s ability to avoid making bogeys or worse on a hole. It’s calculated as the percentage of holes where a player makes par or better.
The US Open’s penal rough and firm greens can lead to increased difficulty in recovering from missed shots. Players under pressure are more likely to make mistakes, so avoiding big numbers is essential. By analyzing a player’s bogey avoidance statistic, bettors can identify players who are more likely to remain competitive throughout the tournament, especially during the challenging final rounds.
Players who avoid bogies are better than those who don’t, but sometimes a bogey is unavoidable. Wind, rain, or a poor shot are all factors that can impact a player’s bogey avoidance rate. Take the BA rate with a grain of salt, and always back up your picks with additional research for a full picture of a player’s skill.
Upcoming US Open Courses
Even though the location of the US Open rotates each year, the courses for the next 25 years have been laid out by the USGA in advance. Here’s a look at the next five years of US Open courses, so you can start your research now.
| Year | Course | Location |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oakmont Country Club | Plum, Pennsylvania |
| 2026 | Shinnecock Hills Golf Club | Shinnecock Hills, New York |
| 2027 | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, California |
| 2028 | Winged Foot Golf Club, West Course | Mamaroneck, New York |
| 2029 | Pinehurst Resort, Course No. 2 | Pinehurst, North Carolina |
Course Statistics
The course for the US Open changes every year, unlike the Masters, which is always at Augusta National. The shifting playing field makes the US Open more exciting, as it gives players with different skillsets the time to shine.
After you’ve researched the players, it’s time to take a look at the course. Here are some of the things to consider when researching the next US Open course:
Hole Length
Take a look at the total yardage of each course, then break it down by hole. Anything over 500 yards is considered a long hole.
Long holes favor players with long driving distances. These golfers can potentially reach the green in two shots, reducing the number of putts needed. Shot holes often require precision and accuracy rather than power. Look for players with strong iron play and good short-game skills.
Par Distribution
The par distribution of a course is just as important at the hole length. It’s uncommon for courses to have back-to-back par 5s, and a balanced course has a similar number of pars spread out over the length of the 18 holes.
But, some courses aren’t entirely balanced. Courses with more par 5s favor strong hitters who can take advantage of scoring opportunities by closing the distance quickly. Courses with more par 3s emphasize accuracy and short-game skills.
Dogleg Severity
A dogleg is a type of golf hole that curves to one side, like the leg of a dog. These types of holes can be challenging and often result in bogies among amateurs or less-skilled players.
Severe doglegs reward players with accurate long drives and good shot-shaping ability. Gentle doglegs favor players with good distance control and the ability to hit fairways.
Water Hazards and Sand Traps
Water hazards and sand traps add complexity to the US Open, and players need to be able to adapt to each to succeed.
Courses with a lot of water hazards penalize inaccuracy off-the-tee and approach shots, while courses with few water hazards favor longer hitters. Sand bunkers are similar, though they require players to have strong bunker play skills.
US Open Golf Betting Tips
As you’re betting on the US Open, keep these tips in the back of your mind:
Research Similar Courses Leading Up to the US Open
As the US Open draws near, spend some time analyzing each player’s performance on a similar course (or in some cases, the same course). Many of the pro players make circuits around the country to practice at popular courses, so they might have more experience than amateur entrants to the US Open.
This is where your research of both player and course comes in handy. Combining the statistics to see a player’s overall performance on the said course can help you compare them with other players. Betting value emerges here, where you see the discrepancies in each player’s style. However, don’t bet merely based on the numbers. Chances are, players who performed poorly will adjust their game for the US Open so that they might present underdog value.
Weather Matters
The weather can dramatically influence the outcome of a golf tournament, especially a major like the US Open.
Wind can significantly impact ball flight and distance. Players with exceptional control and accuracy tend to excel in windy conditions. Rain can soften greens, making putting easier, or it can create challenging playing conditions with wet fairways and greens.
Keep a close eye on the weather leading up to the US Open. Players teeing off in favorable weather conditions often have an advantage, even if they are worse players.
Get US Open Picks and Predictions
One of the best ways to get an edge over sportsbooks and other bettors for the US Open is to sign up for professional picks. Handicappers spend their time pouring over data about players and courses, and comparing the data to sportsbook lines, searching for value.
Handicappers put their picks and predictions up online for free (or for a small fee), to help bettors like yourself. Even if you don’t intend to bet along the same lines as these folks, their insights can help you inform your own wagers.
US Open Betting Has Never Been Easier
US Open golf betting can be challenging, but it can also be very rewarding when your research and dedication pay off. Looking at player stats and course metrics will take you a long way, but checking the weather and researching similar courses are equally important.
We’d also recommend signing up for US Open picks from professional handicappers. Scores and Stats has a full team of skilled bettors who have years of experience betting on golf. Their picks can boost your bankroll and teach you a thing or two about US Open betting.
