MLS Predictions and Picks

What an MLS match gives us

Three prices and a long season. MLS played 510 regular-season matches in 2025, and ESPN holds full prices for 426 of them, almost the whole year. That makes it the best-measured of the soccer leagues we cover: the figures below rest on more priced matches than any European half-season.

Home sides won 223 matches, 43.7%. The draw came in 128 times, 25.1%. Away sides won 159, 31.2%. Matches averaged 3.0 goals, both sides scored in 59.6%, and 57.6% went over 2.5.

Is the draw priced right?

In MLS, almost exactly. Even matches drew 46 times in 172, a 26.7% rate against a 26.7% price. Clear favorites drew 52 times in 203, against 24.5% priced; heavy favorites 11 in 51, against 19.3%.

That is what a well-priced market looks like over a full season. The edge, when there is one, is in a match, not in a band.

Who paid to back

Stake a unit on each MLS club to win in every match ESPN priced. FC Cincinnati returned 17.5 units on 18 wins in 28. San Diego FC, in its first season, returned 16.4 on 18 in 32. Philadelphia returned 13.9 on 17 in 27. At the bottom, Atlanta United won 4 in 25 and cost 13.2 units; St. Louis, Kansas City and the Galaxy each cost more than 9.

Notice the top three won a lot and still paid. One season, though, and a club that paid last year is priced for it this year.

Scores and totals

The commonest MLS score was 2-1 either way, 88 matches; then 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1. Thirty-three matches ended 0-0.

The books posted MLS totals at 2.5 or 3.5 almost every time. At 2.5 the over came in 135 times in 262, close to even. At 3.5, 71 times in 163: a lean to the under.

Goals peaked in September, 3.53 a match, and June, 3.41. March, at the start of the season, was lowest at 2.65.

The long shots

Underdogs won 115 of the 426 priced matches outright. The longest was FC Dallas over Vancouver in October, 2-1 at +650. Portland beat LAFC 1-0 at +600; D.C. United beat Cincinnati 2-1 at +550.

How we price an MLS match

MLS runs on the same club method, set out on our soccer predictions page: home and road scoring set against the opponent’s defending, relative to the MLS average, gives the three chances. We bet a result only when our chance beats the market’s by 5 points.

MLS betting tips

• Trust the draw price, mostly. Across 426 matches it came in close to what was priced.
• Lean under at 3.5. 71 overs in 163.
• Note the high-scoring months. September and June scored most in 2025.
• A winning club can still pay. Cincinnati made 17.5 units on 18 wins.
• Five points, or we pass.

The MLS clubs

Every MLS club is listed below. Its page carries the schedule and every pick we publish on its matches.

Questions and answers