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Kansas State is in one of those Big 12 spirals where every game feels like it starts at a deficit. The record says this season is already on the edge, but the bigger betting angle is availability and confidence. The Wildcats have been shorthanded, they just took a blowout, and now they have to go on the road again to face a TCU team that’s also searching for traction. TCU isn’t exactly stable either. The Horned Frogs are coming off a flat performance, and the early-game offense has been a problem. That creates a weird handicap for bettors: both teams have real flaws, both teams have motivation, and the market usually prices these spots based on which side is less

SMU walks into Pittsburgh in the exact kind of game that makes bubble teams sweat. The Mustangs have enough quality on the résumé to stay in the conversation, but they also have the kind of profile where a bad loss can linger because the margin between “in” and “work left” is thin. Two straight losses have raised the urgency, and this is a spot where style points matter less than taking care of business. Pitt is sitting near the bottom of the ACC, but this is still a home game against a team that wants to play with pace and shoot. If SMU lets turnovers and missed free throws turn into live-ball chances the other way, the number can get

Louisville heads to Winston-Salem trying to string wins together in ACC play, and the handicap starts with one simple question: do the Cardinals finally bring their shooting rhythm with them on the road. The last two wins came with the same script, cold start from three, then a second-half pull-away once the tempo and spacing settled. Wake Forest is sliding, and the defense has been the bigger issue than the offense. When the Deacs cannot stay connected on the perimeter, games get away fast because they give up clean threes and early-clock looks. That’s the exact kind of leak Louisville is built to attack, especially with how many attempts the Cardinals are willing to fire up. These are the current

Syracuse heads to Charlottesville in a tricky ACC spot because the margin for error is thin against Virginia. The Orange can score, but they tend to look a lot more comfortable when the first wave of shots falls. When it doesn’t, the offense gets forced into tougher late-clock possessions and the defensive leaks show up fast. Virginia is built to punish that. This Cavaliers team is getting most of the headlines for the scoring bump, but the defense is still the spine. They guard without giving you clean paint catches, they contest without over-fouling, and they keep opponents from getting to 50% shooting. At home, that profile usually translates into long stretches where the visitor can’t string together good possessions.