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Marlins vs Braves Prediction: Will Eury Pérez Silence Atlanta Again?
The Miami Marlins travel to Truist Park to face the struggling Atlanta Braves on Thursday, August 7, in the opener of a rare five-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM ET, with clear skies, light breezes, and sweltering summer heat expected.
The Marlins are red-hot, having won 10 of their last 14, while Atlanta has dropped 11 of 14 and is 19 games under .500. Miami enters as a slight favorite with a moneyline of -118, while Atlanta is at +100. The run line sits at Marlins -1.5 (+140) and Braves +1.5 (-167), with the total listed at 8.5 runs (O -107 / U -113).
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Marlins Can Win If…
Miami’s chances rest on the arm of Eury Pérez, who’s been dominant over his last six starts (4-1, 1.06 ERA). The 22-year-old phenom has given up just four runs over 34 innings during that stretch and is holding hitters to a measly .132 average.
Despite previous struggles against Atlanta (0-2, 16.20 ERA), Pérez has matured with each outing.
“That is going to help you maintain the rhythm and command each game,” Pérez said after a six-inning shutout performance vs. the Yankees last weekend.
Offensively, the Marlins bring a balanced attack. Miami ranks 7th in batting average (.252) and 8th in doubles (190), with contributions across the board. Xavier Edwards had four hits in their recent win, while Heriberto Hernandez chipped in a key homer.
Their edge in pitching—especially compared to Carlos Carrasco’s 5.68 ERA—gives Miami a distinct advantage if they can continue to capitalize with runners on base.
Braves Can Win If…
The Braves need a jolt to snap their three-game skid, and Thursday may hinge on their power bats and a veteran arm.
Carlos Carrasco will make just his second start for Atlanta, and while the 38-year-old owns a 3.38 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Miami, his recent numbers are less inspiring. He surrendered three runs in six innings in his Braves debut and has allowed seven hits or more in four of his last six appearances.
To support him, Atlanta needs firepower from Matt Olson (18 HR, 68 RBI) and Austin Riley (16 HR), along with consistency from rising rookie catcher Drake Baldwin (.281, 11 HR). Their ability to get timely hits is critical.
“You get two or three games maybe when it flows, but we can’t put anything together and sustain anything,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said after another series loss.
If the Braves can string together early runs and avoid bullpen breakdowns, they could upset the odds.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Trend Type | Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Recent Form | 10-4 in last 14 games | 3-11 in last 14 games |
| Run Line | Covered 7 of last 10 wins | Failed to cover in 6 of last 8 losses |
| Total (O/U) | Over is 4-1 in last 5 road games | Under is 6-2 in last 8 home games |
| Public Betting % | 60% of tickets on Marlins ML | 57% of handle on Over 8.5 |
The Lean
This is a matchup of momentum versus misery. Miami is peaking at the right time, while Atlanta is free-falling and missing their ace. With Eury Pérez in top form and Miami swinging the bats well, the lean is clear.
Prediction: Marlins 5, Braves 4
Best Bet: Marlins ML (-118)
Bonus Lean: Over 8.5 (-107)
For more Expert Baseball Picks and insights, keep it locked to ScoresAndStats throughout this five-game NL East clash.
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