Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions May 7th 2025

Series Context

Arizona has put itself in prime position to sweep a second straight series from the NL East–leading Mets, taking Tuesday’s contest 5–1 behind Zac Gallen’s seven dominant innings. New York split a three-game set in Phoenix last week, and both clubs bring confidence into this rubber game, with Arizona eyeing its first back-to-back series wins over the Mets in franchise history.

Pitching Matchup: Kelly’s Stamina vs. Senga’s Precision

Merrill Kelly (3–1, 4.06 ERA) has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of seven starts but battles recurring right hamstring cramps that have cut short outings this season. His ability to grind through deep counts will be tested against Kodai Senga (3–2, 1.38 ERA), who has allowed more than two runs only twice in six outings and posted 17⅔ scoreless innings in mid-April. Both pitchers rely on sharp breaking balls, but where Kelly leans on his sinker command, Senga’s split-finger fastball has baffled hitters when he’s at his best.

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Offensive Outlook for Arizona and New York

Pete Alonso continues to punish Kelly, going 5-for-16 with three homers and seven RBIs in his career against him, while Francisco Lindor’s defensive heroics and clutch swing have kept the Mets in every contest. Arizona counters with Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s lefty power and Ketel Marte’s plate discipline atop the order. The side that manages traffic with runners in scoring position and squares up two-strike offerings should gain the late-inning edge.

Key Storylines: Health and History

Kelly’s hamstring troubles resurfaced in outings at Wrigley and Philadelphia, raising questions about his endurance in a potential high-stakes duel. Senga, after missing nearly all of 2024 with shoulder and calf strains, has adjusted quickly and remains unfazed by pitch counts. The Mets also await clarity on Jesse Winker’s oblique recovery, while Arizona banks on the momentum from Gallen’s outing and Torey Lovullo’s trust in a rotation that has historically thrived in Phoenix.

Betting Angle

With two starters adept at limiting hard contact and bullpens poised for low-leverage work, the under on total runs through six innings offers value. For more detailed series analysis and player props, check out our linked MLB Predictions.

Prediction

Expect a pitchers’ duel through the middle frames, then Arizona’s depth and home-field familiarity to carry the day.