Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions May 27th 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates May 27th 2025

The Pirates will visit the Diamondbacks at Chase Field on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. The game is set to start at 9:40 PM under the night sky. Fans can expect an exciting game as these two teams meet.

Mike Burrows will take the mound for the Pirates. He has an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.20. The Diamondbacks will counter with Corbin Burnes, who has an ERA of 2.73 and a WHIP of 1.18. Both pitchers will aim to lead their teams to victory.

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Pirates vs. Diamondbacks
• Venue: Chase Field
• Date: Tuesday, May 27, 2025
• Betting Odds: Pirates Spread +1.5 (+102), Diamondbacks Spread -1.5 (-122), Pirates MoneyLine +209, Diamondbacks MoneyLine -251, Over/Under 9.0

The Pirates Can Win If…

The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to bounce back after a tough 5-0 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite the loss, Adam Frazier had a solid performance, going 2 for 4 with a double. Oneil Cruz also contributed with a double, showing potential for extra-base hits.

One reason the Pirates can win is their ability to get on base. They rank 9th in walks with 190 and 4th in stolen bases with 53. This combination of patience and speed can put pressure on opposing pitchers and create scoring opportunities.

Mike Burrows will start for the Pirates, and while his ERA is high, his WHIP of 1.20 shows he can limit baserunners. If he can find his rhythm, he may keep the Diamondbacks’ hitters in check. The Pirates’ defense, which has allowed only 43 home runs, also supports their chances of securing a win.

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a strong win against the Pittsburgh Pirates, taking the game 5-0. Ryne Nelson pitched 6 2/3 innings, allowing no runs and only four hits. Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor each hit a home run, contributing to the team’s ten hits overall.

Arizona’s hitting stats show they have a solid offense. They rank fifth in batting average at .255 and fourth in on-base percentage at .333. The team also leads the league in doubles, with 107, showing their ability to hit for extra bases.

Corbin Burnes will take the mound for the Diamondbacks with a strong ERA of 2.73. His performance could be key against the Pirates, whose starter, Mike Burrows, has an ERA of 7.20. With their recent performance and strong stats, the Diamondbacks have a good chance to win this game.

The Lean

The Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -251, and they have strong hitting stats, ranking in the top five for batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The Pirates have weaker hitting numbers, with a .224 batting average and .331 slugging percentage. Given these stats, the recommendation is to pick the Diamondbacks to win. The model projects a score of Diamondbacks 6, Pirates 3.

The over/under line is set at 9.0. The Diamondbacks have a high slugging percentage and have hit 73 home runs, suggesting they can score runs. However, their pitching has a 4.67 ERA, which might allow runs as well. The recommendation is to take the over, with the model projecting a total score of 9. The projected score aligns with the over line, indicating a likely high-scoring game.

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D-backs’ Corbin Burnes Rides Hot Streak Into Start vs. Pirates

The Arizona Diamondbacks desperately needed a jolt—and they got one. After a season-worst five-game skid, they turned to Ryne Nelson on Monday night, and he delivered. But now, it’s Corbin Burnes’ turn to take the mound, and the stakes couldn’t be clearer.

The D-backs will look to keep the good times rolling in Game 2 of their three-game set against the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday in Phoenix. It’s not just another regular-season matchup—it’s a momentum-builder, a proving ground, and another opportunity for Burnes to validate his massive contract.

Burnes Blazing: Ace Form in Full Effect

When Arizona inked Corbin Burnes to a 6-year, $210 million deal this past offseason, they weren’t just betting on talent—they were banking on leadership, durability, and playoff-level performance. And after an early-season shoulder scare, Burnes is finally delivering.

He enters Tuesday’s game with a 3-2 record and a 2.73 ERA, including four consecutive quality starts. Over his last 23 innings, he’s allowed just three earned runs—all of which came on a single swing by Teoscar Hernandez in his last start against the Dodgers.

More impressive? Burnes struck out eight and walked none in that game, mixing in a lethal blend of cutters and breaking balls that have returned to vintage form.

The Cut Fastball Is Back

Burnes has relied heavily on his signature cutter, throwing it over 54% of the time this year. But earlier in the season, the pitch wasn’t doing what it used to—until now.

“We saw a couple of things that were positive signs that we hadn’t seen in a couple of years,” Burnes said. “The numbers are telling you what your eyes are telling you and what the hitters are telling you.”

That pitch, paired with improved shoulder health and hours of work with pitching coach Brian Kaplan, has turned Burnes back into one of baseball’s most feared arms.

Looking for more pitcher insights? Explore the MLB Odds page to track trends like Burnes’ elite run.

Who’s on the Mound for Pittsburgh?

The Pirates are handing the ball to Mike Burrows (0-1, 7.20 ERA), who’s making just his second career start. The 25-year-old right-hander showed flashes of promise in his debut against Milwaukee—especially after settling down.

He gave up four runs across the first two innings, but then blanked the Brewers over the next three.

“I felt like I could have gone seven,” Burrows said. “Just tried to get through as many as I can before (Kelly) shakes my hand.”

Burrows might be raw, but the potential is obvious. He had a 2.78 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 32.1 innings at Triple-A Indianapolis before his call-up.

Still, going up against Burnes and a rejuvenated D-backs team is no small assignment.

For scouting reports on players like Burrows, check out the latest MLB team breakdowns.

Monday’s Win: A Much-Needed Reboot for Arizona

In Monday’s series opener, Ryne Nelson pitched 6.2 shutout innings, silencing a Pirates team that had won four of their last six. Nelson’s outing marked his longest start of the season, and his first win—a turning point for both him and the team.

That win snapped a five-game losing streak, a stretch where the offense sputtered and the bullpen wobbled. With Nelson’s dominance, the D-backs finally got a breather.

Shutdown Bullpen and Smart Defense

The bullpen closed the door efficiently on Monday, with rookie Braxton Ashcraft delivering three scoreless innings in his MLB debut. Promoted just hours before the game, Ashcraft showcased poise beyond his years—something the Pirates will lean on moving forward.

He replaced Isaac Mattson, who was optioned to Triple-A, and immediately made his mark.

Pirates Under Don Kelly: Growing Through the Grind

Since taking over as interim manager, Don Kelly has led the Pirates to a 7-10 record. That’s modest progress, but what stands out is the team’s energy—especially in their recent 4-1 stretch before back-to-back losses.

Kelly understands that leadership goes beyond lineup cards. It’s about putting players in the best position to succeed, especially in a rebuilding phase.

Prospects Gaining Traction

With Burrows making his second start and Ashcraft already shining, the Pirates are offering meaningful chances to young arms. It’s a youth movement that could define Pittsburgh’s trajectory over the next few years.

Burrows and Ashcraft have tools—velocity, movement, and mound presence. The real question is: Can they translate it into consistent MLB success?

Game 2 Preview: What to Watch For

Key Storylines

• Can Burnes stay hot? He’s been dominant lately, and another gem could silence any early-season contract critiques.
• Will the D-backs finally find offensive consistency? The win was great—but the bats still need to break loose.
• Is Burrows ready for primetime? Facing an ace like Burnes is a litmus test.

Players to Watch

• Corbin Carroll, Arizona’s young outfielder, has been heating up and could be due for a breakout game.
• Ketel Marte continues to provide veteran stability and spark.
• Jared Triolo and Henry Davis will be key for Pittsburgh’s offense, especially if they’re tasked with facing Burnes more than once.

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Final Thoughts: Burnes Looks to Lead the Charge

Game 2 in Phoenix isn’t just another start—it’s a chance for the Diamondbacks to build momentum behind their ace and keep pressure on a Pirates team trying to develop its future.

If Burnes delivers like he has recently, and Arizona’s offense supports him even moderately, this could be another step toward righting the ship.

For Pittsburgh, it’s about growth—seeing what Burrows can do, managing expectations, and staying competitive while building something sustainable.

Two teams. Two timelines. One compelling matchup.