Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 4th 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres August 4th 2025

The San Diego Padres will visit the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. The game is set for Monday, August 4, 2025, at 9:40 PM. The Padres hold a 62-50 record and are ranked second in the NL West. They come into this game with a recent win and a strong 7-3 record in their last ten games.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 53-59 record and sit fourth in the NL West. They have won their last two games but have struggled recently, going 3-7 in their last ten. The starting pitchers for the game are JP Sears for the Padres and Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. The weather in Phoenix is expected to be very hot with clear skies.

Padres vs Diamondbacks Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Venue: Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Monday, August 4, 2025 at 9:40 PM
• Betting Odds: Padres Moneyline -142, Diamondbacks Moneyline +120, Padres Runline -1.5 (+112), Diamondbacks Runline +1.5 (-134), Total Over 9.5 (+100), Total Under 9.5 (-122)

The Padres Can Win If…

The San Diego Padres are coming off a strong 7-3 win against the St. Louis Cardinals. Dylan Cease was impressive, pitching five innings with only one hit allowed and nine strikeouts. Key hitters like Ramón Laureano and Jake Cronenworth contributed with home runs, showcasing their ability to score runs.

The Padres have a solid batting average of .251, ranking 7th in the league. Their pitching staff is also strong, with an earned run average of 3.58, placing them 3rd. The team has a high number of strikeouts, with 953 this season, showing their ability to control the game from the mound.

Key players like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are crucial for the Padres. Machado has a batting average of .299 with 20 home runs, while Tatis Jr. has hit 17 home runs. With JP Sears starting, the Padres aim to capitalize on his experience and secure another win.

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a win against the Athletics, with a 6-4 scoreline. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched five innings, allowing only two earned runs. Blaze Alexander had a strong performance with a home run and two RBIs, helping the team secure the win.

Arizona’s batting stats this season show promise. They rank 4th in slugging percentage at .435 and 5th in home runs with 153. Their ability to hit for power gives them an edge in games.

Brandon Pfaadt will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. He has a record of 10-7, which shows he can secure wins. With solid performances from key players like Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks have a good chance to win.

The Lean

The Padres are favored with a moneyline of -142, and they have strong pitching stats. Their earned run average ranks 3rd, and they hold opponents to a .227 batting average. The Diamondbacks have a higher slugging percentage but struggle with a 4.57 ERA. The model projects the Padres to win 5-4, so the recommendation is to pick the Padres to win straight up.

The total for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The Padres’ pitching is ranked high, but the Diamondbacks’ offense is capable of scoring. The model projects a total of 9 runs. With the line at 9.5, the recommendation is to take the under at -122.

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A Tale of Two Deadlines: All-in Padres Visit Rebuilding Diamondbacks

The MLB trade deadline is a time that separates the contenders from the pretenders, a moment that forces every front office to make a definitive statement about the direction of their franchise. On Monday night in Phoenix, the stark contrast of those decisions will be on full display as the San Diego Padres, who went all-in on a postseason push, open a three-game series against the host Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that has fully embraced a rebuild. It is a clash of two clubs with vastly different short-term goals but a shared desire to win, setting the stage for a fascinating series between two National League West rivals.

The All-In Padres: “We’re Going For It”

For the San Diego Padres, the message from the front office at the trade deadline was loud and clear: it’s time to win. The team was one of the most aggressive “buyers” on the market, executing a series of trades that involved a staggering 22 players. They bolstered their pitching staff by acquiring starter JP Sears and elite closer Mason Miller from the Athletics, and they added veteran bats to their lineup in outfielders Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. These moves were a massive vote of confidence in a team that is currently in the thick of the National League wild-card race. The impact was felt immediately in the clubhouse.

“Getting these guys is definitely an upgrade, definitely a help,” said superstar third baseman Manny Machado. “It sends a message that we’re ready to win, and we’re going to go for it. They’re putting the faith in us.” The Padres have backed up that faith on the field, winning seven of their last eight games as they begin a short three-game road trip. Their offense has been led by three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, who is currently riding a 16-game hitting streak.

The table below provides a snapshot of the two teams as they enter this pivotal divisional series. To review the full box score from their last matchup, you can check the official MLB game results.

A Motivated Rebuild in Arizona

While the Padres were adding veterans, the Diamondbacks were trading them away. The team made the difficult decision to part with key players like Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly, and Randal Grichuk, signaling a full commitment to a youth movement. While a trade deadline sell-off can often be a demoralizing experience for a clubhouse, the message from the front office seems to have had the opposite effect on the young players who remain. After the moves were made, GM Mike Hazen held a team meeting that left the players energized and motivated.

“From a team standpoint, it motivated the hell out of us,” said Blaze Alexander, who has taken over at third base since Suarez was traded. “It motivated me. This is my opportunity. I’m running at it full steam ahead. I’m going to take advantage of every day I’m out there with these guys. I get to play with some of the best players in the world. Ketel Marte. Corbin Carroll.” This mentality shows a young team that is embracing the opportunity to prove they are the future of the franchise. How a team responds to a trade deadline sell-off is a key topic in our expert betting guide.

The Pitching Matchup: A Debut and a Dilemma

Monday night’s pitching matchup is a fantastic one, featuring a pitcher making his debut with his new team and another who has been a statistical anomaly all season. The Padres will give the ball to lefty JP Sears (7-9, 4.95 ERA), who will be making his first start for San Diego after being acquired from the A’s. He will look to make a great first impression.

The Diamondbacks will counter with right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (10-7, 5.11). Pfaadt is tied for fourth in the NL in wins, but his ERA is among the highest in the majors. He is coming off a rough start but was dominant against these same Padres in his last meeting, throwing eight innings of two-run ball.

The Betting Outlook

The scores and odds for this matchup will likely favor the Padres, given their recent form and the Diamondbacks’ sell-off. However, the energy of the young D-backs players could make them a dangerous underdog at home. For more in-depth analysis of this and other games, you can view all of our MLB previews. To see who our experts are backing, check out our daily MLB picks. To get access to even more premium content and betting tools, you can register for an account today.