Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 5th 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres August 5th 2025

The San Diego Padres will visit the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. The Padres have a record of 62-50 and are second in the NL West. They are on a one-game winning streak and have won seven of their last ten games. The Padres will rely on Yu Darvish, who has an ERA of 6.46 and a record of 1-3.

The Diamondbacks hold a 53-59 record and rank fourth in the NL West. They have won their last two games but have struggled recently, winning only three of their last ten. Ryne Nelson will start for the Diamondbacks, bringing an ERA of 3.20 and a 6-3 record. The game will be played under broken clouds with a calm wind, but the retractable roof may limit weather impact.

Padres vs Diamondbacks Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Venue: Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Tuesday, August 5, 2025
• Betting Odds: Padres Moneyline -134, Diamondbacks Moneyline +115, Padres Runline -1.5 (+119), Diamondbacks Runline +1.5 (-141), Total Over 9.0 (-119), Total Under 9.0 (-102)

The Padres Can Win If…

The San Diego Padres are coming off a solid win against the St. Louis Cardinals, with a 7-3 victory. Dylan Cease was key on the mound, allowing just one hit over five innings and striking out nine. Ramón Laureano and Jake Cronenworth contributed with home runs, showcasing the team’s ability to score runs.

The Padres have a batting average of .251, ranking 7th in the league. Their ability to make contact is supported by their 3rd place in strikeouts, with only 783 this season. This suggests they can put pressure on opponents by consistently getting on base and making plays.

Yu Darvish will start for the Padres, and though his ERA is high, his recent performance against the Mets was strong. He pitched seven scoreless innings, demonstrating potential to dominate. If Darvish can replicate that form, the Padres have a good chance to secure another win.

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a win against the Athletics, 6-4. Blaze Alexander and Alek Thomas led the charge with multiple hits. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched five innings, allowing two earned runs while striking out five.

Arizona’s hitting stats are strong this season. They have a slugging percentage of .435, ranking third in the league. Their 153 home runs also place them in the sixth spot, showing their power at the plate.

Ryne Nelson will start for the Diamondbacks against the Padres. He has a solid ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.02. With his strong performance, Arizona has a good chance to secure another victory.

The Lean

The Padres are favored with a moneyline of -134. The Diamondbacks have a moneyline of +115. Given the Padres’ strong pitching with a 3.58 ERA and the Diamondbacks’ higher ERA of 4.57, the model projects a Padres win with a score of 5-3.

The total line for the game is set at 9.0. The model projects a combined score of 8 runs. Considering the Padres’ solid pitching and the Diamondbacks’ lower batting average against, the recommendation is to take the under at 9.0 (-102).

Darvish Looks to Anchor Padres Amid Rotation Reset vs. D-backs

With the postseason race intensifying, the San Diego Padres are counting on Yu Darvish to deliver another dominant performance as they face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday night in Phoenix. Following a 6-2 loss in the opener, San Diego turns to its veteran ace to steady the ship.

Tuesday’s clash features Darvish (1-3, 6.46 ERA) opposite Ryne Nelson (6-3, 3.20 ERA), as the Padres seek to rebound and reclaim momentum in the tightly packed National League race.

Padres Searching for Rotation Stability

After an injury-riddled first half, the Padres’ rotation remains in flux. Darvish’s latest outing — seven scoreless innings on just 76 pitches against the Mets — offered hope for a late-season resurgence. The right-hander allowed only two singles and didn’t issue a walk.

“Looked like the Yu Darvish I’ve been playing behind the last five years,” second baseman Jake Cronenworth said after the win.

With Dylan Cease (4-10, 4.60 ERA) struggling and Michael King sidelined, San Diego’s front office sought reinforcements at the deadline. The additions of JP Sears and Nestor Cortes bolster depth, but Darvish remains the anchor.

Explore the full MLB teams overview for pitching depth, injuries, and roster shifts across the league.

Darvish’s Historic Milestone and Key Adjustment

Darvish’s last win was more than just a step forward — it was historic. The victory marked his 204th career win (including Japan), breaking Hiroki Kuroda’s record for most wins by a Japanese-born pitcher.

“It means a lot,” Darvish said, noting that a lower arm angle adjustment in the bullpen carried over successfully to game action.

He has faced the D-backs more than any other team, holding a 9-5 record with a 3.67 ERA in 20 career starts. However, he was tagged for two runs in 3 2/3 innings during his season debut against Arizona on July 7.

Stay on top of performance trends, splits, and previews at the MLB expert guide.

Diamondbacks Finding Their Groove

The D-backs have shaken off a six-game skid with three straight wins, including Monday’s 6-2 series opener. Tyler Locklear and Alek Thomas went deep, while Corbin Carroll and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. each drove in two runs.

“There’s so much season left,” Carroll said. “What we do now will carry into 2026.”

Ryne Nelson, who stepped into the rotation full-time in June, has posted a stellar 1.95 ERA over his last nine starts. He’s already logged two wins against the Padres this year, including a strong outing in a 5-1 win on June 13.

For scores, updates, and pitching matchups, check the live MLB scores and odds.

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What’s at Stake

San Diego is teetering in the postseason hunt and needs more consistency from its rotation to avoid falling behind. Arizona, while inconsistent, is building momentum at a crucial time.

Both teams are operating in the margins of a packed wild card race, where each outing carries added weight.

Find updated predictions and betting insights for this and all other games at the MLB picks page.