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Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction: Can San Diego Lean on Cortes to Close Series?
On Wednesday, August 6, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks (54–59) host the San Diego Padres (62–51) at Chase Field. First pitch is at 9:40 PM ET, with the Padres as –142 favorites and the Diamondbacks at +121. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
San Diego hopes the return of Nestor Cortes in the finale helps complete the series sweep. Arizona counters with Anthony DeSclafani, recently inserted into the rotation following the Merrill Kelly trade.
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San Diego Padres Can Win If…
Cortes joins a rotation hoping to stabilize after earlier uncertainty. Though he brings a high ERA (9.00), his track record suggests stronger outing potential should he settle into rhythm. Back him with a reliable defense and key bats in Machado (.299 AVG, 20 HR) and Tatis Jr. (17 HR) to provide early run support.
Arizona Diamondbacks Can Win If…
Arizona enters with momentum after Tuesday’s 6–2 win, racking up 12 hits and contributions from Alek Thomas, Tyler Locklear, and strong pitching from Brandon Pfaadt. DeSclafani (4.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) must keep San Diego off the board while Alek Thomas and Ketel Marte continue delivering slugging performances.
Pitching Matchup Comparison
| Pitcher | Team | ERA | WHIP | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | Padres | 9.00 | ~1.40 | 3rd start of season; needs to settle in |
| Anthony DeSclafani | D‑backs | 4.91 | ~1.29 | Working rotation spot after trade deadline |
Key MLB Betting Trends
- Padres rank 3rd in team ERA (.228 opponent batting average)
- Diamondbacks rank 3rd in slugging with 155 home runs
- Cortes has yet to face Arizona with San Diego
- Recent matchups have favored unders when San Diego’s staff limits early runs
The Lean
San Diego’s rotation and defense offer more consistency, and Cortes could eat innings, which teams value. I project a 5–3 Padres win, so the Padres moneyline (–142) is the lean. With both teams holding offensive power but pitching edges balanced, the total of 9.5 leans under, reflecting a projected combined run total of 8.
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