Braves vs Reds Prediction: Will Cincinnati’s Ace Keep Total Under?

The Atlanta Braves travel to Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday, July 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. The Braves enter with a 45-62 record and are looking to snap a two-game skid, while the Reds sit at 57-52, holding steady in the NL Central race. The Reds opened as -157 moneyline favorites, with Atlanta at +133. The run line favors Cincinnati -1.5 at +128, and the total is set at 9.5 runs (O: -102, U: -118).

Braves Can Win If…

Atlanta needs to unlock their offensive firepower. Despite a strong start from Joey Wentz (6.2 IP, 1 hit, 7 K), the Braves fell 1-0 to Kansas City. Michael Harris II and Jurickson Profar were among the few bright spots with hits.

The Braves rank 11th in on-base percentage (.317) and 3rd in walk rate, demonstrating patience at the plate. Their 117 home runs rank 15th, and sluggers Matt Olson and Austin Riley (34 combined HRs) can quickly flip the script.

Carlos Carrasco (5.91 ERA) gets the start. His veteran presence could be crucial if the Braves can give him early run support.

“It’s not always pretty, but I trust my stuff — the key is getting ahead and letting the defense work.”
— Braves starter Carlos Carrasco on navigating tough lineups

Player to Watch

Austin Riley’s power is real — a big night from him could shake up this pitching-heavy matchup.

Reds Can Win If…

The Reds are clicking behind strong pitching and balanced offense. In their recent 5-2 win over the Dodgers, Nick Martinez dealt six solid innings, and Spencer Steer led the charge with two hits, including a triple and two RBIs.

Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) gets the ball for Cincinnati. The lefty has been one of MLB’s most effective arms in 2025 and gives the Reds a clear advantage on the mound.

The offense, led by Elly De La Cruz (.282, 18 HR), ranks top-10 in both batting average and on-base percentage, giving them plenty of run potential to support Abbott.

“We’ve been finding ways to win — guys are stepping up, and Abbott gives us a shot every single time.”
— Reds manager on the club’s consistency

Player to Watch

De La Cruz is a constant threat with the bat and on the bases. If he gets on, he can change the game instantly.

Key MLB Betting Trends

Recent Form

• Reds are 5-5 in their last 10, coming off a win vs. Dodgers.
• Braves are 3-7 over their last 10 and on a 2-game losing streak.

Pitching Edge

• Reds: 3.72 team ERA (8th in MLB)
• Braves: 4.41 team ERA (21st)

Totals Trends

• Under is 6-2 in Reds’ last 8 games.
• Braves are 4-1 to the Under in their last 5.

Want more context? Review all the recent MLB Game Results before placing your wagers.

The Lean

With Abbott on the hill and the Reds owning both the ERA and WHIP advantage, Cincinnati looks poised to handle a struggling Braves team. My model projects a 5-4 Reds win.

Model Score Projection: Reds 5, Braves 4
Pick: Reds ML -157 and Under 9.5 (-118)

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