Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions June 5th 2025

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks June 5th 2025

The Arizona Diamondbacks will visit the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park for an afternoon game on Thursday, June 5, 2025. The game is set to start at 12:15 PM and will be broadcast on MLBN. The weather forecast predicts a mild day with a light breeze and a few clouds.

Arizona enters the game with a 30-31 record, sitting 7 games back in the NL West. They have a road record of 15-14. The Braves, with a 27-33 record, are 10 games back in the NL East. They have been stronger at home, holding a 17-13 record. Brandon Pfaadt will start for the Diamondbacks, while Grant Holmes will take the mound for the Braves.

Diamondbacks vs Braves Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves
• Venue: Truist Park in Atlanta, GA
• Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
• Betting Odds: Braves MoneyLine -140, Diamondbacks MoneyLine +118

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

The Arizona Diamondbacks recently won a tight game against the Atlanta Braves, 2-1. Merrill Kelly was outstanding on the mound, pitching seven innings and giving up only one hit. Ketel Marte and Tim Tawa contributed with key hits, helping secure the win.

Arizona’s batting lineup has been strong this season. They rank 4th in home runs with 84 and 3rd in slugging percentage at .448. This power at the plate can be a game-changer against any opponent.

Brandon Pfaadt will start for the Diamondbacks with a 7-4 record. Despite a 5.05 ERA, he has shown resilience in past games. With their recent form and strong batting stats, Arizona has a good chance to win this game.

The Braves Can Win If…

The Atlanta Braves are set to bounce back after a close 2-1 loss against the Arizona Diamondbacks. In that game, Chris Sale delivered a solid performance, striking out 10 batters over six innings. Despite the loss, the Braves’ pitching staff has shown strength, ranking 11th in the league with a 3.73 ERA.

Atlanta’s lineup is filled with power hitters like Matt Olson, who leads the team with 12 home runs. The Braves are ranked 12th in the league with 63 home runs this season. Their ability to hit the long ball gives them a strong chance to score runs and secure a win.

Grant Holmes will take the mound for the Braves, bringing a 3.78 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Holmes’ consistency on the mound could be a key factor in limiting Arizona’s offense. With solid pitching and a lineup capable of producing runs, the Braves have the tools needed to win this game.

The Lean

The Braves are the favorite with a moneyline of -140. The Diamondbacks are the underdog at +118. My model projects the Braves to win with a score of 5-4. The Braves have a stronger pitching staff, with a lower ERA and better batting average against compared to the Diamondbacks. This gives them an edge in the game.

The over/under line is set at 9.0. My model projects a total score of 9. This suggests a push, but given the Braves’ strong hitting and the Diamondbacks’ weaker pitching, the over is a safer pick. The Braves rank high in slugging and home runs, which could lead to more runs scored in the game.

Dive into Advanced MLB Metrics

Subscribe Today

Get Free Trial

Brandon Pfaadt Looks to Bounce Back as D-Backs Eye Sweep vs. Braves

Brandon Pfaadt will step onto the mound Thursday afternoon with two missions in mind: help the Arizona Diamondbacks pull off a rare sweep in Atlanta and erase the memory of the worst start of his major league career. The D-Backs have already won the first two games of the series — an 8-3 blowout on Tuesday and a nail-biter 2-1 victory on Wednesday — and now they’re just one game away from sweeping the Braves in Atlanta for the first time since 2019.

But this one’s personal for Pfaadt. After a solid season, his last outing against the Washington Nationals went completely off the rails. He didn’t retire a single batter and was tagged for eight earned runs on six hits, plus two hit batsmen. His ERA ballooned from 3.90 to 5.05 in a matter of minutes.

“What happened was unacceptable,” Pfaadt said after the outing. “We just didn’t execute pitches. It’s tough, but you kind of have to flush it and move on.”

Need insights into today’s top picks? Check out the latest expert predictions on the MLB Pick Page.

Pfaadt’s History vs. Atlanta Gives Arizona Hope

Despite his recent blowup, Pfaadt has a solid track record against the Braves. He beat them earlier this season on April 27, giving up just two earned runs over six-plus innings. In fact, through three career starts against Atlanta, he’s 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA — a trend the D-Backs would love to see continue.

Arizona manager Torey Lovullo isn’t panicking. He chalked up Pfaadt’s collapse against Washington to command issues and off-target sliders. “I don’t care if they’re left- or right-handed hitters,” Lovullo said. “When he’s on and he’s throwing the ball where he wants to, he’s going to have a lot of success.”

Want to dive deeper into team performance trends? Explore season details on the MLB Team Page.

Braves Turn to Holmes for Damage Control

Atlanta will counter with Grant Holmes (3-4, 3.78 ERA), who’s quietly been a consistent presence in the Braves’ rotation. Holmes has held opponents to three or fewer runs in five of his last six starts. His latest outing wasn’t perfect — he gave up three runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to Boston — but he showed life with nine strikeouts, tying his season high.

Holmes has struggled against Arizona, however. Back on April 26 in Phoenix, he surrendered six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Across three career appearances versus the D-Backs (including two in relief), he holds a 5.40 ERA with no wins or losses.

Looking to place smarter bets? Get current lines and movement on the MLB Odds Page.

Braves Offense in a Funk at the Worst Time

Atlanta’s once-feared offense is sputtering badly. After Wednesday’s 2-1 loss, the Braves have now dropped 10 of their last 13 games and sit six games under .500. Even more concerning, they’ve scored one or zero runs in five of those defeats, and their power has vanished — just 13 home runs and 45 runs total in that 13-game stretch.

Manager Brian Snitker didn’t sugarcoat it: “We’ve got to do better the entire game if we want to get where we want to go… there’s no blame to anybody, but we just have to do better overall with all aspects.”

The offense hasn’t offered much support for the pitching staff lately, and unless that changes, it’s going to be hard to snap this slide.

Looking for betting strategies on how to play teams in slumps or surges? Don’t miss the Expert Betting Guide for tips and insights.

Final Thoughts: Redemption or Collapse?

Thursday’s matinee isn’t just about completing a sweep. For Brandon Pfaadt, it’s about proving last week was a fluke — not the start of a slide. For the Braves, it’s about salvaging something from a series that’s slipped away and stopping the bleeding before it spirals.

The D-Backs have momentum, the series lead, and a pitcher with something to prove. The Braves have urgency, home-field pressure, and a growing sense of frustration. It’s the kind of matchup where everything is on the line — even if it’s just Game 3 in June.

Stay tuned. This one could be the turning point for both teams.