Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions July 4th 2025

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles July 4th 2025

The Baltimore Orioles will visit the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on Friday, July 4, 2025. This night game is set to start at 7:15 PM and will be broadcast on FDSSO. Fans can expect a clear sky with a light breeze, making for a hot evening in Atlanta.

The Orioles, managed by interim manager Tony Mansolino, have a season record of 37-49. They will face the Braves, who have a record of 39-47 under manager Brian Snitker. Charlie Morton will start for the Orioles, bringing an ERA of 5.62, while Spencer Strider will take the mound for the Braves with an ERA of 3.86.

Orioles vs Braves Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves
• Venue: Truist Park in Atlanta, GA
• Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
• Betting Odds: Orioles Moneyline +151, Braves Moneyline -179, Orioles Runline +1.5 (-138), Braves Runline -1.5 (+116), Total Over 8.5 (-119), Total Under 8.5 (+100)

The Orioles Can Win If…

The Baltimore Orioles are looking to bounce back after a tough 0-6 loss to the Texas Rangers. Despite the loss, Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O’Hearn each managed a double, showing they can find gaps in the defense. The Orioles have shown they can put up big numbers, as seen in their 10-6 win against the Rangers on June 30th.

The Orioles’ lineup features several strong hitters who can make a difference. Ryan O’Hearn leads the team with a .294 batting average and has hit 11 home runs this season. Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday have both contributed 10 home runs, adding depth to the batting order.

Baltimore’s pitching staff will need to step up, but they have the potential to hold their own. The team has recorded 23 quality starts this season, ranking 15th in the league. With a solid performance from the bullpen, the Orioles can control the game and secure a win.

The Braves Can Win If…

The Atlanta Braves are looking to bounce back after a 1-5 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. In that game, Bryce Elder pitched five innings, allowing four earned runs. Jurickson Profar stood out with a home run, while Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna each contributed with hits.

The Braves have shown they can score big, as seen in their 8-3 victory against the Angels on July 2nd. Matt Olson had a standout performance with a home run and four RBIs. The Braves rank 10th in on-base percentage, making them a threat on the bases.

Spencer Strider is set to start, bringing his 3.86 ERA into the game. The Braves’ pitching staff ranks 5th in batting average against, showing they can limit hits. With strong performances from hitters like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley, the Braves have the tools to win this game.

The Lean

The Braves are the pick for the moneyline at -179. They have a strong pitching edge with a 3.76 ERA, ranked 12th, compared to the Orioles’ 5.02 ERA, ranked 27th. My model projects the Braves to win with a score of 5-3, supporting their moneyline odds.

For the over/under, the recommendation is to go with the over 8.5 at -119. The Orioles’ pitching struggles, shown by their high ERA and batting average against, suggest runs will be scored. The projected total is 8, but the Orioles’ pitching issues could push the total over the line.

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A Familiar Face Returns: Charlie Morton, Orioles Visit Braves

It will be an emotional homecoming in Atlanta on Friday night. Veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, a key part of the Braves’ recent run of success, will return to his old home mound for the first time as a visitor as his Baltimore Orioles open a three-game series against the host Atlanta Braves.

Morton’s Homecoming

Morton, who was drafted by the Braves in 2002 and spent a successful four-year stint with the club from 2021-2024, will be making his first start since June 24 after a brief trip to the injured list. Before the injury, the 41-year-old was on a roll, carrying a four-decision winning streak.

“He’s got a long track record,” said Orioles manager Tony Mansolino. “A guy that’s been that successful for so long, it probably shouldn’t be that big of a surprise.”

A Duel of Aces

Friday’s game features a premier pitching matchup. While Morton makes his return, the Braves will counter with their own ace, Spencer Strider (3-6, 3.86 ERA). Strider has been excellent recently, with a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts, but has been the victim of poor run support, taking a tough 2-1 loss his last time out despite allowing only two runs over seven innings. This elite duel between two of the game’s best right-handers will be the top story on the scores and odds board.

A Battle of Slumping Squads

Both teams come into this series looking to get back on track. The Braves have lost six of their last eight games, and their offense has gone cold. Their lone bright spots have been first baseman Matt Olson, who is riding a major-league-best 33-game on-base streak, and the recently returned Jurickson Profar, who has homered in both games since his suspension ended.

The Orioles have lost seven of their last eleven and are hoping to get their own power bat, Tyler O’Neill, back from the injured list for this series. The struggles of these two talented MLB teams are a key topic in our expert betting guide.

For two teams looking to build momentum, this series opener is a crucial test. To see who our experts think will win this fantastic pitching duel, check out our daily MLB picks.