Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions June 28th 2025

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies June 28th 2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on Saturday, June 28, 2025. The game is set to start at 7:15 PM and will be broadcast on FOX. The weather forecast predicts a very hot night with scattered clouds and a light breeze. The Phillies come into this game with a record of 47-34.

They have a road record of 21-20. Jesús Luzardo will be their starting pitcher, boasting a 7-3 record with an ERA of 4.08. The Braves hold a record of 37-43 and have played well at home with a 22-15 record. Spencer Schwellenbach will start for the Braves, with a 6-4 record and an ERA of 3.21.

Phillies vs Braves Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
• Venue: Truist Park in Atlanta, GA
• Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025
• Betting Odds: Phillies MoneyLine +133, Braves MoneyLine -157

The Phillies Can Win If…

The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a narrow 2-1 loss to the Houston Astros. Cristopher Sánchez delivered a strong performance with 11 strikeouts over six innings. Rafael Marchán showed promise at the plate, going 2-for-3, and Bryson Stott scored the team’s only run.

Despite recent losses, the Phillies have strengths that can lead to a win. They rank 5th in the league with a .254 batting average and 4th with a .327 on-base percentage. Their pitching staff has also been effective, leading the league with 45 quality starts and ranking 3rd in strikeouts with 746.

Kyle Schwarber is a key player for the Phillies, with 24 home runs, ranking 4th in the league. Trea Turner provides additional support with a .295 batting average and 54 runs scored. Jesús Luzardo, the starting pitcher, has a solid record of 7-3, and his performance will be crucial against the Braves.

The Braves Can Win If…

The Atlanta Braves recently faced the New York Mets and lost 0-4. Grant Holmes pitched for five innings, allowing two runs and striking out six batters. Despite the loss, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and Eli White each recorded a hit, showing their ability to contribute offensively.

The Braves’ pitching staff has been strong this season with a team ERA of 3.71, ranking 9th in the league. Spencer Schwellenbach, with an ERA of 3.21, will start the next game. His impressive WHIP of 0.99 suggests he can limit baserunners effectively.

Offensively, the Braves have several key players. Matt Olson leads the team with 15 home runs and 52 RBIs. Ronald Acuña Jr. is another player to watch with a batting average of .369, providing consistent hitting at the top of the lineup.

The Lean

The Braves are favored with a moneyline of -157 against the Phillies at +133. The Braves have a stronger batting lineup, ranking higher in batting average and on-base percentage. My model projects the Braves to win with a score of 5-3. I recommend taking the Braves on the moneyline.

The current over/under line is set at 8.0 runs. Both teams have solid pitching, with the Braves having a slight edge in earned run average and batting average against. My model projects a total score of 8 runs. I recommend taking the under for this game.

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Phillies Aim to Keep Bats Hot Against Braves in NL East Showdown

The Philadelphia Phillies broke out of their offensive funk in dramatic fashion Friday night, and they’ll look to keep that momentum rolling when they face the Atlanta Braves in the second game of their three-game weekend series on Saturday.

After scoring just one run in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros, the Phillies erupted for 13 runs on 17 hits in Friday’s 13-0 rout of Atlanta. Every Philadelphia starter recorded a hit, with Trea Turner leading the way with two home runs and a 4-for-6 effort. J.T. Realmuto added a 3-for-4 performance to spark the much-needed offensive revival.

“Ideally you like to have the same juice for every start, but I’d be lying if I said that in starts like this you don’t bring a little extra knowing what’s on the line.”
— Jesus Luzardo

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The Phillies (now holding a slim lead over the Mets in the NL East) enter Saturday’s game with a 4-3 edge in the season series against the Braves. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 10.5 games behind and reeling from a three-game skid. Their bats have been silent for two straight games—save for Matt Olson, whose 28-game on-base streak is the longest active run in the majors.

Saturday’s Pitching Duel: Luzardo vs. Schwellenbach

Philadelphia will send lefty Jesus Luzardo (7-3, 4.08 ERA) to the mound following his dominant performance against the Mets last Sunday, when he tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. Luzardo has a solid track record against Atlanta, with a 3.89 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings across eight career starts.

“He’s got really good stuff. He’s a competitor and he’s going to get after it.”
— Rob Thomson

Atlanta counters with Spencer Schwellenbach (6-4, 3.21 ERA), who brings a three-game win streak and a 2.74 ERA over his last nine starts. The rookie right-hander has been a model of consistency, pitching at least six innings in each of those outings and notching a complete game against Milwaukee on June 11.

“Nothing surprises me with him anymore… You come to expect it and I think he expects it.”
— Brian Snitker

Schwellenbach has a 2.22 ERA in four career starts against Philadelphia and matched up against Luzardo earlier this season in an 11-inning Braves win.

Betting Focus and Series Implications

Saturday’s matchup sets the stage for a key National League East tilt, with two starters in strong form and two offenses trending in opposite directions. With Luzardo surging and Schwellenbach delivering quality innings consistently, this game offers betting value across several angles—from strikeout props to total runs and MLB picks and predictions.

Expect another competitive chapter in this budding division rivalry, with both teams jockeying for midseason positioning.

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