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Orioles vs Padres Picks and Predictions — September 1, 2025
The Baltimore Orioles continue a rough season with a trip west to face the San Diego Padres on Monday night at Petco Park. Baltimore (61-76) has lost eight of its last 10, while San Diego (76-61) returns home after a 2-4 road trip, still just two games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.
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The Padres are listed as -160 favorites, the Orioles +134 underdogs, with the total set at 7.5 runs. For a broader look at both clubs’ form, check the latest MLB game results.
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Orioles Can Win If…
Kyle Bradish delivers another strong outing and the bats back him up. Bradish (0-1, 3.00 ERA) missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery but struck out 10 over six innings in his return last week against Boston.
“This is the type of guy that if he stays healthy, it’s ace-type stuff,” interim manager Tony Mansolino said.
Baltimore still flashes power — 164 homers on the year — and Gunnar Henderson remains the centerpiece of the lineup. If Bradish can neutralize San Diego’s bats and the Orioles cash in with timely hits, they could steal the opener.
Padres Can Win If…
They ride their Petco Park momentum and Dylan Cease takes advantage of home cooking. San Diego owns a 43-22 home record, best in baseball. Cease (6-11, 4.82 ERA) has earned all six wins at home this season and is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts against Baltimore.
“We’ve got amazing fans and we’ve got a great vibe there,” manager Mike Shildt said of Petco Park.
Offensively, Manny Machado and Ramón Laureano provide power, while Gavin Sheets has embraced his new role since being traded from Baltimore. If Cease keeps the ball in the zone and San Diego’s bats wake up, the Padres are well-positioned.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Category | Orioles | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 61-76 | 76-61 |
| Last 10 Games | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.37 | 4.85 |
| ERA / Opp Runs | 4.75 ERA (27th) | 3.65 ERA (3rd) |
| Home/Away Record | 27-40 Away | 43-22 Home |
The Lean
Pick: Padres -160
Projected Final Score: San Diego 5, Baltimore 3
Bradish gives Baltimore a fighting chance, but San Diego’s dominant home form and Cease’s comfort at Petco Park tilt the matchup. With both lineups capable of scoring, the over 7.5 is also a strong play.
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