Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions August 3rd 2025

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros August 3rd 2025

The Houston Astros will play the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Sunday, August 3, 2025. The game starts at 11:35 AM and will be aired on Roku. The Astros hold a 62-49 record and are ranked first in the AL West. They have lost their last two games and are 3-7 in their last ten.

The Red Sox, with a 61-51 record, are second in the AL East. They are on a four-game winning streak and have gone 7-3 in their last ten games. Framber Valdez will start for the Astros, while Lucas Giolito takes the mound for the Red Sox. The weather forecast predicts a mild day with a clear sky.

Astros vs Red Sox Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
• Venue: Fenway Park in Boston, MA
• Date: Sunday, August 3, 2025
• Betting Odds:
  • Astros Moneyline: -114
  • Red Sox Moneyline: -104
  • Astros Runline: -1.5 (+142)
  • Red Sox Runline: +1.5 (-170)
  • Total Over: 8.0 (-117)
  • Total Under: 8.0 (-103)

The Astros Can Win If…

The Houston Astros are looking to bounce back after their recent loss to the Boston Red Sox, 7-3. Despite the loss, the Astros showed strong hitting with 14 hits, including a home run from Christian Walker. Key players like Victor Caratini also had a solid performance, going 4 for 5 at the plate.

The Astros have strong stats that can help them win this game. They rank second in batting average at .258, showing they can consistently get on base. Their pitching staff is also strong, with a team ERA of 3.70, ranking sixth in the league.

Framber Valdez will start for the Astros, bringing an ERA of 2.62 and a record of 11-4. Valdez’s performance could be crucial in keeping the Red Sox at bay. With hitters like Jeremy Peña and Jose Altuve in the lineup, the Astros have the tools to secure a win.

The Red Sox Can Win If…

The Boston Red Sox are coming off a strong win against the Houston Astros, winning 7-3 at home. Trevor Story led the charge with a home run and three RBIs. Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro also contributed with home runs, showing the team’s ability to hit for power.

Boston’s hitting stats this season are impressive, ranking 5th in batting average and slugging percentage. They lead the league in doubles, which can turn into runs quickly. With players like Trevor Story and Alex Bregman in the lineup, the Red Sox have a solid chance to keep their offensive momentum going.

On the mound, Lucas Giolito will start for Boston. He has a 3.80 ERA and a 7-2 record this season. His consistent performance gives the Red Sox a good opportunity to limit the Astros’ offense and secure another win at home.

The Lean

The Astros are favored with a moneyline of -114 against the Red Sox’s -104. The Astros have a strong batting average, ranking 2nd in the league. Their pitching is also solid, with a 3.70 ERA, ranking 6th. My model projects the Astros to win with a score of 5-3. The recommendation is to pick the Astros to win straight up.

The total for the game is set at 8.0 runs, with the over at -117 and the under at -103. Both teams have decent pitching, with the Red Sox’s ERA at 3.73. However, the Astros’ offense is expected to score more. My model projects a total of 8 runs. The recommendation is to take the over for this game.

Giolito Gets the Ball as Red Sox Look to Sweep Astros

The Boston Red Sox will turn to right-hander Lucas Giolito on Sunday morning as they aim to complete a three-game sweep of the visiting Houston Astros at Fenway Park.

Giolito (7-2, 3.80 ERA) steps in after the club decided to push back newly acquired Dustin May’s debut to Wednesday. The scheduling shuffle allows Giolito to maintain his regular rotation cadence, despite Sunday’s 11:30 a.m. start time.

“It was either him pitching Sunday or May,” said manager Alex Cora. “Gio didn’t like having too many days off — he said he was good to go.”

Giolito’s history against Houston, however, is rough: 2-6 with a 5.94 ERA over nine career starts. But Boston is hoping his 2025 form and recent run support can offset that track record.

Catch the latest MLB team news and matchups, including Red Sox vs. Astros insights.

Astros Turn to Framber Valdez in Search of Salvage Win

Opposing Giolito will be Framber Valdez (11-4, 2.62 ERA), the Astros’ reliable left-hander who’s enjoyed success against the Red Sox in his career. Valdez owns a 3-1 record with a 1.96 ERA in five career games (three starts) vs. Boston, along with 24 strikeouts to just three walks over 23 innings.

Despite his consistency, Houston is reeling. The Astros have lost seven of their last nine games and dropped five of their last seven series.

“We got a lot of traffic,” said manager Joe Espada after Saturday’s loss. “We just couldn’t get that big hit.”

Houston left 14 runners on base Saturday and went 2-for-11 with RISP, squandering early momentum after a two-run first inning. Meanwhile, Boston responded with homers from Romy Gonzalez, Trevor Story, and Abraham Toro en route to a 7-3 win.

Red Sox Finding Ways to Win

Boston continues to claw for ground in the AL Wild Card race, showing resilience in close and comeback games. They won Friday’s series opener 2-1 in extra innings, then came from behind Saturday despite Houston’s fast start.

“We just feel like we’re not out of any game,” said Trevor Story. “And that’s a great feeling to have.”

Giolito will be key to finishing the sweep and sustaining that momentum heading into a three-game set with the Kansas City Royals.

For more statistical breakdowns and betting tips, check out our MLB expert betting guide.

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Injury Notes and Lineup Moves

Jeremy Pena, recently activated from the IL, sat out Saturday after cramping up in Friday’s extra-inning loss but is expected to return Sunday.

Dustin May, newly acquired from the Dodgers, will debut Wednesday vs. Kansas City.

Garrett Crochet is scheduled to start Tuesday’s game, keeping the rotation in rhythm.

What’s Next

With a win Sunday, the Red Sox would earn their first sweep of Houston since 2021 and continue inching toward MLB playoff contention.