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Red Sox vs Royals Prediction: Can Dustin May Fuel Boston’s Sweep Bid?
On Wednesday, August 6, 2025, the Kansas City Royals (56–58) visit the Boston Red Sox (64–51) at Fenway Park. First pitch is at 7:15 PM ET on FS1. The Red Sox are favored at –144, with the Royals priced at +122. The total lines at 9.0 runs.
Boston enters on a seven-game winning streak, while Kansas City has lost two straight. Read the latest MLB recaps in our recap section.
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Kansas City Royals Can Win If…
The Royals have shown signs of life despite Tuesday’s 6–2 loss. Maikel Garcia delivered an RBI double, and Ryan Bergert allowed just two runs over 5⅔ innings in his debut.
Kansas City’s pitching ranks elite—2nd in MLB ERA (3.60) and 6th in batting average against (.236). Michael Wacha (3.38 ERA) provides veteran stability on the mound if the Royals can generate timely hitting and capitalize on Boston’s defensive miscues.
Boston Red Sox Can Win If…
Boston’s offense continues to surge behind key contributors like Trevor Story and Wilyer Abreu, who combined for five RBIs in the win on Tuesday. Their depth is anchored by turnaround power and consistency in the middle of the lineup.
New acquisition Dustin May will make his Red Sox debut following a rough final stretch in Los Angeles. While his 4.85 ERA may be higher than ideal, Boston’s run support and defensive strength give him a chance to settle in and help complete the sweep.
Pitching Matchup Comparison
| Pitcher | Team | W–L (2025) | ERA | WHIP | Career vs Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | Red Sox | 6–7 | 4.85 | ~1.40 | First start vs KC |
| Michael Wacha | Royals | 5–9 | 3.38 | ~1.30 | 2–1, 2.14 ERA vs BOS |
Key Betting Trends
- Red Sox have won 14 of their last 15 at Fenway
- Royals have averaged fewer than three runs in 4 of their past 6 games
- Total has stayed at or below 9.0 in 5 of Boston’s last 7 home games
- Boston leads the season series 3–2
The Lean
Boston’s momentum, roster flexibility, and Fenway edge give them the upper hand for closing out the series. My model projects a 5–4 Red Sox win, making the Boston moneyline (–144) the lean.
With both starters delivering solid recent work and Boston’s bullpen depth, the total of 9.0 leans under, reflecting a projected 9 combined runs.
Check our updated numbers and lineup insights in the MLB betting advice section.
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