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Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins August 17th 2025
The Miami Marlins will visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Sunday, August 17, 2025. The Marlins have struggled recently, losing their last three games and posting a 2-8 record in their last ten. They are currently third in the NL East with a 58-65 record. Manager Clayton McCullough will look to turn things around with Janson Junk on the mound. Junk has a 4.06 ERA and a 6-2 record this season.
The Boston Red Sox are in a better position, holding a 68-56 record and second place in the AL East. They have won their last two games and are 5-5 in their last ten. Under the guidance of manager Alex Cora, the Red Sox have a strong home record of 41-22. Garrett Crochet will start for Boston, bringing a 2.48 ERA and a 13-5 record. The game is set for 1:35 PM and will be broadcast on FDSFL. Weather conditions are expected to be warm with scattered clouds.
Marlins vs Red Sox Key Information
- Sport: Baseball
- Teams: Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox
- Venue: Fenway Park in Boston, MA
- Date: Sunday, August 17, 2025
- Betting Odds: Marlins Moneyline +200, Red Sox Moneyline -242, Marlins Runline +1.5 (-104), Red Sox Runline -1.5 (-116), Total Over 8.5 (+100), Total Under 8.5 (-121)
The Marlins Can Win If…
The Miami Marlins are coming off a 7-5 loss to the Boston Red Sox. Despite the loss, they showed strong hitting with two home runs. Troy Johnston and Agustín Ramírez each hit a home run, contributing to the team’s eight hits.
The Marlins have a solid batting average of .252, ranking 6th in the league. Their ability to hit doubles is also notable, with 207 doubles this season, placing them 6th. This strong hitting lineup can help them in the upcoming game.
Janson Junk will be the starting pitcher for the Marlins. He holds a 4.06 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, showing he can be effective on the mound. With Junk’s pitching and the team’s hitting capabilities, the Marlins have a chance to win this game.
The Red Sox Can Win If…
The Boston Red Sox are coming off a 7-5 win against the Miami Marlins. Trevor Story was key with a home run and three RBIs. Brayan Bello pitched over six innings, allowing just two runs and striking out two.
The Red Sox have strong stats that can help them win. They rank first in doubles and fifth in batting average. Their pitching is also solid, with a 3.73 ERA, ranking sixth in the league.
Garrett Crochet will start for the Red Sox. He has a 2.48 ERA and a 13-5 record. With his strong performance, the team has a good chance to continue their winning streak.
The Lean
The Red Sox are favored to win against the Marlins with a moneyline of -242. The Marlins have a moneyline of +200. The Red Sox have a stronger batting lineup, ranking 5th in batting average and on-base percentage. My model projects the Red Sox to win with a score of 5-3. Based on these factors, the recommendation is to pick the Red Sox to win straight up.
The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Red Sox have a solid pitching staff with a 3.73 ERA, ranking 6th. The Marlins’ pitching is weaker with a 4.56 ERA, ranking 23rd. My model projects a total score of 8 runs. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the under 8.5 runs.
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Red Sox Telling Great Story at Home; Marlins Try for Different Ending
The Boston Red Sox continue to shine at Fenway Park and will turn to ace Garrett Crochet on Sunday afternoon in pursuit of a three-game sweep over the Miami Marlins.
Boston has won 16 of its past 18 home games, with Trevor Story playing the hero in both victories to open the series. On Friday, Story delivered a walk-off single in the ninth inning to secure a 2-1 win. He followed it up with a three-run homer on Saturday as part of Boston’s 7-5 triumph. Story now has 19 home runs on the season and extended his franchise record with 22 consecutive stolen bases.
Manager Alex Cora praised his shortstop’s all-around game, noting Story’s consistency in power, speed, and leadership. “He’s been very consistent in everything: running the bases, hitting the ball hard, driving in runs, playing great defense, leading the group,” Cora said. “Couldn’t be more proud.”
Probable Pitching Matchup
| Pitcher | Team | W-L | ERA | WHIP | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet | Red Sox | 13-5 | 2.48 | 0.97 | Coming off worst outing (5 ER vs. Houston) |
| Janson Junk | Marlins | 6-2 | 4.06 | 1.34 | First career start vs. Boston |
Crochet, one of the American League’s top left-handers this season, will look to rebound after allowing five runs in just four innings against Houston. Miami counters with Janson Junk, who has been steady but untested against Boston’s lineup.
Series Leaders So Far
| Player | Team | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Story | Red Sox | Walk-off hit Friday, HR + 2 hits Saturday |
| Aroldis Chapman | Red Sox | Earned 22nd save Saturday; unavailable Sunday |
| Josh Bell | Marlins | 2 hits, RBI in Saturday’s rally |
| Kyle Stowers | Marlins | Out with Grade 1 strain, headed to IL |
Key Storylines
- Red Sox Rolling at Fenway: Boston has gone 16-2 in its last 18 home games, fueling its AL playoff push.
- Trevor Story’s Hot Bat: Story has been central to Boston’s surge, producing clutch hits and setting a tone on the bases.
- Bullpen Watch: With closer Aroldis Chapman unavailable, Boston will need another reliever to step up if a save situation arises.
- Marlins Resilience: Despite the series deficit, Miami rallied for three runs in the ninth on Saturday and forced Boston to bring in Chapman. Interim manager Clayton McCullough praised the fight in his young roster.
The Red Sox are positioning themselves for a postseason run, while the Marlins look to regroup after losing All-Star Kyle Stowers to injury. For bettors tracking trends, Boston has been one of the most profitable home teams since July, making them a favorite play in MLB picks.
