Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions May 19th 2025

Red Sox Look to Regroup vs. Pitching-Dominant Mets

The Boston Red Sox open a three-game series Monday against the visiting New York Mets, trying to shake off a rough stretch that’s seen them lose 11 of their last 17 games. But the matchup won’t be any easier against MLB’s top pitching staff.

With manager Alex Cora away attending his daughter’s college graduation, bench coach Ramon Vazquez will take the reins for Boston.

“It’s going to be a special day for us,” Cora said. “I will 100% miss the game for that.”

Red Sox Skidding into the Series

The Sox have dropped five of their last six and come off a 10–4 loss to Atlanta. Offensive inconsistency and poor situational hitting have plagued them all month.

“It doesn’t feel like we’re way off,” said Cora. “But it’s another loss in the column.”

One major slump? Rookie Kristian Campbell, who is just 4-for-51 over his last 12 games. After a strong start, pitchers have adjusted to him.

“Now it’s our turn to make adjustments,” Cora said. “It’s a learning curve for him.”

Campbell, who has played second base and outfield, has also started training at first base for added versatility.

For lineup shifts and player trends, check our MLB team stats page.

Mets: Dominant Pitching, Minimal Runs

The Mets have the lowest team ERA in MLB (2.86)—but they can’t seem to score runs. They’ve been held to three runs or fewer in five straight games, totaling just nine over that span.

On Sunday, they were limited to three hits in an 8–2 loss to the Yankees and committed two infield errors.

“We’ve got to finish plays,” said Mets manager Carlos Mendoza. “Some of the routine plays aren’t getting made, and they’re costing us.”

Despite offensive struggles, the Mets’ arms continue to shine. Kodai Senga (4–2, 1.02 ERA) has been phenomenal and gets the start Monday.

He faced Boston once last season, allowing two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings.

Pitching Matchup: Senga vs. Dobbins

• Kodai Senga (4–2, 1.02 ERA, Mets):
  One of the most effective starters in baseball this year, Senga has racked up strikeouts with his signature forkball. His command has tightened, and he’s been nearly unhittable in May.
• Hunter Dobbins (2–1, 3.90 ERA, Red Sox):
  The rookie right-hander is making his first appearance against New York. Dobbins has been steady but hasn’t faced a lineup with the plate discipline of the Mets.

This duel may come down to which team can take advantage of mistakes—and who blinks first.

Get updated odds and projections at our MLB odds page.

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Key Trends & Stats

Red Sox:

• 6–11 in last 17 games
• Scored 4 runs or fewer in 10 of those games
• 2–4 in Dobbins’ starts

Mets:

• MLB-best 2.86 ERA
• 3 runs or fewer in last 5 games
• 6–2 in Senga’s starts

Betting Angles

• Under 8.5 Total Runs: Both teams are offensively challenged right now, and with Senga pitching, the under offers strong value.
• Mets First Five ML: With Senga’s 1.02 ERA, the Mets have consistently led through five innings.

Need more prop bets and matchup breakdowns? Head over to our expert betting guide.

Series Outlook

The Mets aren’t hitting—but they don’t need much support with Senga on the mound. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are trying to right the ship during a tough stretch with a rookie starter and a fill-in manager.

If Boston’s young bats don’t adjust soon, and Senga cruises, the opener could be over quickly.

Stay tuned to our MLB picks page for daily breakdowns and game-day best bets.