Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Picks and Predictions May 16th 2025

Cubs Aim to Keep Crosstown Edge Over White Sox in Rivalry Weekend Opener

Rivalry Weekend in the Windy City opens Friday with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Chicago White Sox, and momentum heavily favors the North Side. The Cubs have won five straight in the crosstown series and taken seven of eight meetings since the start of the 2023 season.

For a Cubs team sitting above .500 and ranked among the top offenses in baseball, this series offers both bragging rights and a chance to build on early success. Meanwhile, the White Sox continue to struggle to find consistency, though a recent uptick in performance has given them hope heading into the three-game weekend set.

For betting lines, player props, and live data, check out our MLB Odds Page.

Cubs’ Offense Leads the NL — Even After a Quiet Finale

The Cubs had an off day Thursday, following a series win over the Miami Marlins. In that series, they exploded for 10 runs across two victories, but then fell 3-1 on Wednesday in a game where they produced just three at-bats with runners in scoring position.

“In general, we just didn’t create enough offense,” manager Craig Counsell said. “We weren’t in enough scoring situations.”

Even with the hiccup, the Cubs still lead the National League in total runs (244)—a figure that trails only the New York Yankees (250) across all of MLB. Their team OBP, slugging, and wRC+ all rank top-five among NL teams.

Cade Horton: Cubs’ Next Ace Debuts as a Starter

The Cubs will send out a rookie starter with elite potential Friday afternoon in Cade Horton (1-0, 6.75 ERA). This marks the first MLB start for the 23-year-old right-hander, who was selected seventh overall in the 2022 MLB Draft out of the University of Oklahoma.

Horton made his major league debut last Saturday in relief against the Mets, logging four innings and earning the win, despite allowing three earned runs. The Cubs have high hopes for Horton, whose fastball-slider combo and command give him legitimate top-rotation upside.

With the team’s rotation currently battling injuries, Horton’s emergence couldn’t be more timely.

Find Cade Horton’s prop bets and strikeout odds on our MLB Picks Page.

White Sox Counter With Rookie Gem Shane Smith

Not to be outdone, the White Sox are also rolling with a rookie — Shane Smith (1-2, 2.08 ERA) — who has quietly emerged as one of the most efficient arms on the roster. Taken in the Rule 5 Draft from Milwaukee, Smith has allowed just two earned runs in his last 11 innings, including six shutout frames against the Marlins last weekend.

Smith’s poise, movement, and ability to pitch deep into games have been a bright spot in what’s otherwise been a tough 2024 campaign for the White Sox.

Manager Will Venable praised Smith’s competitive edge: “He’s stepped in and really given us quality outings. That’s not easy to do as a Rule 5 guy with little margin for error.”

Cubs Have Owned the Crosstown Matchup Since 2023

The Cubs’ five-game winning streak over the White Sox includes multiple double-digit run outbursts and lopsided affairs. Since last season, the Cubs have outscored the Sox 54-28 in eight meetings.

With the South Siders ranking last in the American League in runs (149) and batting average (.214), the Cubs are in a strong position to continue their dominance.

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White Sox Hoping Recent Progress Carries Over

Despite a 7-1 loss to the Reds on Thursday, the White Sox arrived at Wrigley Field having won two straight series, including victories over Cincinnati and Miami. They had won three straight games for the first time all year before dropping the series finale.

Even so, the team sits at 14-30, with only the Rockies holding a worse record.

“We were feeling good heading into Thursday,” manager Will Venable said. “It didn’t go our way, but overall a great series. Now it’s time to shift gears for the Cubs.”

The Sox will lean heavily on Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn, and Paul DeJong to produce enough offense in what has become one of the league’s least productive lineups.

Pitching Has Been the White Sox’s Quiet Strength

While their offensive metrics are near the bottom of MLB, Chicago’s pitching staff is surprisingly competitive. Their team ERA of 4.04 is down significantly from last year’s 4.67, a stat that hints at incremental progress during an ongoing rebuild.

If Shane Smith can deliver another strong outing and the bullpen holds, the White Sox could make this series more competitive than recent history suggests.

For team splits, run-line trends, and over/unders, visit our MLB Betting Guide.

Key Stats and Trends

• Cubs have won 7 of 8 games vs. White Sox since 2023
• Chicago Cubs lead the NL in total runs (244)
• Cade Horton will make his first career MLB start
• Shane Smith has a 2.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through four starts
• White Sox offense ranks last in AL in both AVG and total runs
• Cubs are 15-8 at home this season

FAQs

Who is starting for the Cubs and White Sox on Friday?
Cade Horton (Cubs) vs. Shane Smith (White Sox), both rookies.

How have the Cubs performed vs. the White Sox recently?
They’ve won 5 straight and 7 of the last 8 matchups.

Is Cade Horton a top prospect?
Yes, Horton was a first-round pick in 2022 and features a powerful fastball-slider combo.

What are the White Sox batting stats this season?
They are last in the AL in batting average (.214) and runs scored (149).

How has Shane Smith performed so far?
He has a 2.08 ERA over four starts and is coming off six scoreless innings.

Where can I find betting predictions for this rivalry game?
Visit our MLB Picks Page for predictions, run lines, and prop plays.