Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions July 1st 2025

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians July 1st 2025

The Cleveland Guardians are set to take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. The game is scheduled for 8:05 PM and will be broadcasted on CLEG. Fans can expect a warm night with clear skies and a light breeze, perfect for an outdoor game.

The Guardians, managed by Stephen Vogt, enter with a 40-42 record this season. They have a road record of 20-22. On the mound for Cleveland will be Gavin Williams, who holds a 3.68 ERA. The Cubs, led by Craig Counsell, have a 49-35 record and a strong home record of 25-15. Matthew Boyd will start for the Cubs, boasting a 2.65 ERA. Both teams aim to improve their standings in their respective divisions.

Guardians vs Cubs Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago Cubs
• Venue: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL
• Date: Tuesday, July 1, 2025
• Betting Odds: Cubs MoneyLine -172, Guardians MoneyLine +146

The Guardians Can Win If…

The Cleveland Guardians are looking to bounce back after a tough 0-7 loss against the St. Louis Cardinals. Their starting pitcher, Logan Allen, showed promise with six strikeouts over six innings. Despite a recent losing streak, the Guardians have shown they can hit for power, as seen in their 6-9 loss to the Cardinals, where they hit two home runs.

José Ramírez continues to be a key player for the Guardians. He leads the team with a .309 batting average and 13 home runs. The team ranks 10th in stolen bases, which could be a factor in putting pressure on the opposing defense.

The Guardians’ pitching staff has given up the 8th fewest home runs this season. This could help them contain the Cubs’ offense. With Gavin Williams on the mound, who has a 3.68 ERA, the Guardians have a chance to keep the game close and secure a win.

The Cubs Can Win If…

The Chicago Cubs are looking to bounce back after a 0-2 loss to the Houston Astros. In that game, Jameson Taillon pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits. The Cubs managed 5 hits but couldn’t push any runs across the plate.

Despite the recent loss, the Cubs have shown strong hitting stats this season. They rank 3rd in slugging percentage with .446 and have hit 124 home runs, also ranking 3rd. With players like Seiya Suzuki, who has 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, the Cubs have the power to score big.

Matthew Boyd will be the starting pitcher for the Cubs in the upcoming game. Boyd has a solid ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP of 1.10. With his strong performance on the mound, the Cubs have a good chance to keep the Cleveland Guardians’ offense in check.

The Lean

The Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -172 against the Guardians at +146. The Cubs have a strong batting lineup, ranking 4th in batting average and 3rd in slugging percentage. My model projects the Cubs to win with a score of 5-3. Based on these factors, the recommendation is to pick the Cubs to win straight up.

The over/under line is set at 8.0. The Cubs’ pitching has a slightly better ERA of 3.88 compared to the Guardians’ 4.03. My model projects a total score of 8 runs. Given the balanced pitching and hitting stats, the recommendation is to take the under 8.0.

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Matthew Boyd returns to Progressive Field aiming to keep rolling after a strong start to his Chicago tenure. Recovering from Tommy John surgery, Boyd revived his career down the stretch for Cleveland in 2024, and his early-season form with the Cubs has been equally impressive. For expert selections on all matchups, check out our MLB picks page.

Boyd’s Renaissance in Chicago

Signed by the Guardians nearly a year ago, Boyd (7–3, 2.65 ERA) proved vital during Cleveland’s playoff push, posting a 0.77 ERA over three October starts. He’s carried that momentum north to Wrigley Field, delivering five quality outings in his last six turns and yielding just three hits over six scoreless frames in his most recent win. For more background on this matchup and season-long trends, see our MLB previews.

Guardians’ Offensive Woes

After opening the campaign 29–22, Cleveland has slid to 40–42, averaging just three runs per game during an 11–20 skid. The club has been shut out three times in its current four-game losing streak, and stars Steven Kwan and José Ramírez have combined to go 4-for-40 over their last six outings. To navigate where value lies, you can consult our expert betting guide.

Tuesday’s Pitching Duel

Boyd will face Gavin Williams (5–3, 3.68 ERA), who makes his first career start against Chicago. Williams allowed four runs over 5⅓ innings in his last outing, relying on a heavy sinker and sweeping slider to generate weak contact. For subscribers seeking deeper breakdowns and projections, you can buy picks tailored to this game.

What to Watch

Chicago’s offense ranks second in baseball with 453 runs scored but has been held to two runs or fewer in 11 of its past 29 contests. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s bullpen has been taxed by recent deficits. Keep an eye on Ramírez’s notoriously low .188 average at Wrigley Field and whether Kwan’s modest road improvement carries over. To see how top analysts are leaning, visit our handicappers leaderboard.