Padres vs Cubs Wild Card Odds, Preview, Picks

Padres vs Cubs Wild Card Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres will take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Both teams are starting the season, holding the first spot in their divisions. The game is set for Tuesday, September 30, 2025, at 3:08 PM and will be broadcast on ABC.

San Diego’s Nick Pivetta will face Chicago’s Matthew Boyd on the mound. Pivetta finished last season with a 2.87 ERA, while Boyd had a 3.21 ERA. The weather forecast predicts a mild day with a clear sky and a light breeze, perfect for baseball at the outdoor stadium.

Padres vs Cubs Key Information

Sport: Baseball
Teams: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Venue: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL
Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Betting Odds: Padres Moneyline -103, Cubs Moneyline -115

The Padres Can Win If…

The San Diego Padres are coming off a strong win against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 12-4. They had 11 hits, with Jackson Merrill leading the charge with 3 RBIs. Manny Machado also contributed with a home run and 2 RBIs, showing the depth of their lineup.

The Padres have a solid batting average, ranking 5th in the league at .252. Their pitching is even better, with a team ERA of 3.64, ranking 3rd. Nick Pivetta will be on the mound, bringing a 2.87 ERA and 13-5 record, which makes the Padres a tough opponent.

San Diego’s lineup is filled with talent, including Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, who both have over 25 home runs this season. With a strong mix of power and consistency, the Padres have the tools to secure a win. Their recent form and key player performances put them in a good position for this game.

The Cubs Can Win If…

The Chicago Cubs come into this game with momentum, having won their last game 2-0 against the St. Louis Cardinals. Javier Assad was strong on the mound, pitching 5 1/3 scoreless innings with six strikeouts. Seiya Suzuki contributed offensively with a home run, while Kevin Alcántara and Moisés Ballesteros added key hits.

The Cubs have shown solid hitting stats this season, ranking 5th in slugging percentage at .430 and 6th in home runs with 223. Their lineup features power hitters like Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki, who have hit 34 and 32 home runs, respectively. With a balanced lineup, the Cubs can capitalize on their home field advantage.

On the pitching side, the Cubs’ starter Matthew Boyd has a solid ERA of 3.21 and a WHIP of 1.09. He has been reliable, with a record of 14-8, and can keep the Padres’ bats in check. With their recent performances and strong stats, the Cubs have a good chance to win this game.

The Lean

The Padres are slightly favored with a moneyline of -103 against the Cubs at -115. The Padres have a strong pitching rank, with a 3rd place in ERA and the best batting average against. This suggests they can limit the Cubs’ offense. The model projects a score of Padres 4, Cubs 3. Therefore, the pick is the Padres to win straight up.

The total for the game is set at 7.0, with the over at -108 and the under at -112. Both teams have solid pitching, with the Padres ranked 3rd in ERA and the Cubs 9th. This indicates a low-scoring game. The model projects a total of 7 runs, aligning with the set line. The recommendation is to take the under 7.0.

Seiya Suzuki is carrying momentum into October. The Cubs’ slugger crushed five home runs in the final four games of the regular season, giving Chicago a boost as they open their best-of-three NL wild-card series against the Padres at Wrigley Field.

Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA) takes the ball for the Cubs after striking out 154 over 179 2/3 innings in his first season in Chicago. San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87), who went 1-1 against the Cubs in April.

Chicago (92-70) is back in the postseason for the first time since 2020, while San Diego (90-72) makes its fourth playoff trip in six years. For more daily breakdowns, check the MLB previews page

Line Movement and Odds

The Cubs opened as -120 favorites with the Padres at +110. The total sits at 7.5 after opening at 8. Early sharp money has leaned to the under, while public action has tilted toward Chicago. You can track updated numbers anytime on the MLB odds board

Matchup Breakdown

Chicago’s lineup is heating up. Suzuki’s power surge and Nico Hoerner’s .337 September average give the Cubs timely offense. Rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong has also added pop with two homers in his last four games.

San Diego relies on depth. Manny Machado anchors the lineup, and the Padres will look to support Pivetta, who has limited postseason experience. Dylan Cease is lined up for Game 2, with the Cubs likely turning to Shota Imanaga, who owns a 1.40 career ERA against San Diego.

Injuries and Conditions

Cubs

No major new injuries reported.
Shota Imanaga expected for Game 2.
See the full Chicago Cubs injury report

Padres

Rotation healthy with Cease confirmed for Game 2.
Lineup at full strength heading into series.
Check the San Diego Padres injury report

Weather: Forecast calls for cool mid-60s temperatures with winds blowing in, a small edge to pitchers.

Best Bets and Prediction

The under 7.5 is attractive with Boyd and Pivetta both in strong form and weather suppressing offense. Chicago is 6-2 in Boyd’s last eight starts and has momentum at home. Lean Cubs -120 in a low-scoring matchup.

Projected Score: Cubs 4, Padres 2

ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks

For more postseason action, browse the handicapper leaderboard and today’s service plays. You can also grab free MLB picks and sharpen your edge with the expert betting guide and bettors handbook

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions September 30th 2025