Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions June 28th 2025

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres June 28th 2025

The San Diego Padres are set to take on the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. This afternoon game will start at 4:10 PM on Saturday, June 28, 2025. Fans can catch the action on FDSOH, with weather conditions expected to be warm with a light breeze and some light rain.

The Padres, managed by Mike Schildt, hold a 44-37 record this season. They are currently 7 games back in the NL West. On the other side, the Reds, led by Terry Francona, have a 43-39 record and are 5 games back in the NL Central. Randy Vásquez will start for the Padres with a 3.60 ERA, while Andrew Abbott takes the mound for the Reds with a 1.79 ERA.

Padres vs Reds Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
• Venue: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH
• Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025
• Betting Odds: Padres MoneyLine +127, Reds MoneyLine -150

The Padres Can Win If…

The San Diego Padres are looking to rebound after a tough 8-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. In that game, Dylan Cease had a challenging outing, allowing four runs in four innings. Despite the loss, the Padres have shown they can bounce back quickly, as seen in their recent 1-0 win against the Washington Nationals where Nick Pivetta pitched seven scoreless innings.

The Padres have a solid pitching staff with a team ERA of 3.67, ranking them 7th in the league. Their pitching strength is further highlighted by holding opponents to a .228 batting average, which ranks 4th. With Randy Vásquez on the mound, who has a 3.60 ERA, the Padres have a reliable starter to keep the game close.

Offensively, the Padres have key hitters like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. leading the charge. Machado boasts a .295 batting average and has 13 home runs, while Tatis Jr. has hit 15 home runs. With such talent in their lineup, the Padres have the potential to put runs on the board and secure a win.

The Reds Can Win If…

The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a strong win against the San Diego Padres, with an 8-1 score. Spencer Steer was a standout, hitting three home runs and driving in four runs. Nick Martinez also had a great performance on the mound, allowing just one hit over eight innings.

The Reds have shown solid hitting stats this season. They rank 9th in batting average and on-base percentage, and 7th in doubles. Their ability to get on base and hit for extra bases gives them a strong chance to win the game.

Andrew Abbott will start for the Reds, bringing an impressive 1.79 ERA. His WHIP of 0.97 shows his control on the mound. With Abbott’s strong pitching and the Reds’ solid hitting, they have a good chance to win this game.

The Lean

The Reds are favored with a MoneyLine of -150, while the Padres sit at +127. The Reds have a slight edge in hitting and pitching stats. My model projects the Reds to win with a score of 5-4. Based on these factors, the recommendation is to pick the Reds to win straight up.

The over/under line is set at 9.5. My model projects a total score of 9 runs. Both teams have strong pitching, which may keep the score lower. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the under 9.5 for this game.

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Reds’ Abbott Looks to Keep Momentum Rolling vs. Padres After Near No-Hitter

The Cincinnati Reds are riding high after a dominant 8-1 win over the San Diego Padres on Friday night. On Saturday, they’ll turn to red-hot left-hander Andrew Abbott to try and deliver another strong outing in the second game of this three-game set at Great American Ball Park.

Nick Martinez flirted with history on Friday, retiring 22 straight batters and taking a no-hit bid into the ninth inning. Meanwhile, Spencer Steer put on a show at the plate, launching three home runs for the first time in his career.

“He can help us win. He’s got that dog in him.”
— Nick Martinez on Andrew Abbott

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Abbott (7-1, 1.79 ERA) enters Saturday’s start having allowed just two earned runs over his last 21 2/3 innings. He retired the final 18 batters he faced in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals, showcasing pinpoint control and stamina.

The 26-year-old southpaw has dominated San Diego in limited action, posting a 0.61 ERA with 14 strikeouts in two career starts covering 14 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati also got a boost from Austin Hays, who returned from the injured list and doubled in a run, while scoring another on Friday. Hays had been sidelined with a foot contusion.

“I feel good about where I’m at.”
— Austin Hays

Padres Turn to Vasquez Amid Power Struggles

The Padres will counter with right-hander Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.60 ERA), who continues to pitch deep into games but hasn’t been rewarded with wins—logging six straight no-decisions. He allowed two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Royals last Sunday but has been vulnerable to the long ball, surrendering 11 homers over his last nine outings.

This will be Vasquez’s first career appearance against Cincinnati.

Xander Bogaerts returned to the San Diego lineup on Friday after sitting out one game due to a left shoulder issue—the same shoulder that required surgery last season. Padres manager Mike Shildt acknowledged discussions about Bogaerts adjusting his aggressive sliding approach to protect his health.

Game Outlook and Betting Trends

With Cincinnati’s offense surging—powered by Steer and the return of Hays—and Abbott in peak form, the Reds are in a strong position to secure another win. The Padres will need Vasquez to avoid costly home run mistakes, especially in a ballpark known to favor hitters.

If you’re tracking MLB predictions and picks, this matchup offers strong angles in the total runs market, player props for Steer and Abbott, and first-five inning bets given Abbott’s recent dominance.

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