Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions August 29th 2025

Reds Aim to Regain Momentum in Opener vs. Cardinals

The Cincinnati Reds return home searching for a reset after a road trip that saw their postseason push lose steam. What started with optimism — a chance to build ground in the National League wild-card race — ended with a harsh reality check. The Reds dropped six of their final seven games away from home, capped by a sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their offense sputtered, their bullpen was taxed, and their strikeout total ballooned. In their road trip finale, a 5–1 loss to L.A., the Reds fanned 19 times, their highest single-game strikeout total of the season.

That stumble left Cincinnati sitting four games behind the New York Mets for the final NL wild-card spot. Manager Terry Francona, who has preached resilience all season, tried to reframe the slump as an opportunity. “I just told our guys we can choose to make the next five weeks like the best five baseball weeks of our life,” Francona said. “But we’re going to have to remember everything we’ve talked about from Day 1 and learn from things that happen and then move on. And hopefully get a little rest and come back ready to go. Because we’ve got to get after it.”

The Reds had lifted their record to 67–60 before the skid began, but now the urgency has ratcheted up. The margin for error is gone. Designated hitter Gavin Lux echoed his manager’s message: “This is a really resilient group, a lot of grit. We’re going to use that off day and reset and come back ready to play against the Cardinals.”

Cardinals also searching for consistency

If the Reds’ recent week was disappointing, the St. Louis Cardinals have endured their own frustrations. Their four-game home set with the Pittsburgh Pirates ended in a split, salvaged by a 4–1 win on Thursday that snapped a mini-slide. The victory was just their second in six games, keeping them on the periphery of the playoff chase.

The Cardinals’ inconsistency has been a theme all season. Injuries to cornerstone players like Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan have forced young replacements into critical roles. Rookie infielder Thomas Saggese has been among the bright spots, showing flashes of promise. In the Pirates series, he went 4-for-12 with two walks and two RBIs, including the go-ahead double in the finale. Manager Oliver Marmol praised his approach: “On Wednesday he was patient, took his walks. On Thursday he swung the bat really well. That’s the progression you’re hoping for. He continues to shrink the strike zone and make better decisions and get rewarded for it.”

But youth and transition can only cover so much ground in a division where every win matters. The Cardinals, like the Reds, are running out of time.

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Pitching matchup: Littell vs. Liberatore

Friday’s opener features two pitchers with plenty to prove. For Cincinnati, right-hander Zack Littell takes the mound. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays before the trade deadline, Littell has settled in as a mid-rotation stabilizer. He enters at 9–8 with a 3.62 ERA and is 1–0 with a 3.92 ERA across four starts with the Reds. His most recent outing, however, was uneven: he lasted only three innings and threw 77 pitches in a 6–5 extra-innings loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Littell’s track record against St. Louis is concerning. In nine career appearances (one start), he is 0–2 with a 7.04 ERA. For a Reds team desperate to flip momentum, they’ll need him to buck that history.

St. Louis counters with left-hander Matthew Liberatore. His numbers tell the story of a pitcher struggling to find footing: 6–11 with a 4.27 ERA. More concerning, he has completed five innings just once in his past seven starts and carries an 0–5 record with a 6.21 ERA across that span. He hasn’t tasted victory since June 29.

Liberatore has had mixed results against Cincinnati. In his lone start against the Reds this year, he was tagged for two runs in three innings in a 9–1 loss. Still, his career numbers (1–1, 2.53 ERA in eight appearances) suggest he has shown flashes of effectiveness against them.

Pitching matchup snapshot

Offensive challenges for both clubs

Neither offense has been firing on all cylinders recently. Cincinnati’s lineup, which once thrived on youth, speed, and aggressive swings, has been bogged down by strikeouts. Their 19 punchouts against the Dodgers underscored a troubling trend: when the Reds fail to put the ball in play, their lack of consistent power hitters becomes glaring.

The Cardinals’ offense, meanwhile, has been reshuffled due to injuries. Saggese has provided a spark, but the absence of Arenado’s bat and Donovan’s on-base presence has left Paul Goldschmidt carrying too much of the load. The veteran slugger has battled inconsistency, and while the occasional big hit remains in his bat, St. Louis lacks the depth to cover prolonged slumps.

Offensive snapshot (2024 season to date)

Both clubs sit in the bottom half of the National League in scoring and with runners in scoring position, further emphasizing how important timely hitting will be in this series.

Bullpen questions loom large

Relief work may play an outsized role in this series, especially with starters who rarely go deep. The Reds’ bullpen has been overworked in recent weeks, particularly during their road skid. Lucas Sims and Alexis Díaz remain reliable in the late innings, but the wear has shown.

St. Louis has shuffled its bullpen due to injuries, with John King going back on the injured list and Andre Granillo recalled from Triple-A. Their relief corps has been inconsistent all year, and protecting slim leads has been a recurring issue. With two struggling rotations, this series could hinge on whose bullpen cracks first.

Wild-card race implications

Beyond divisional pride, this series carries weight in the National League wild-card chase. Cincinnati trails the Mets by four games, while St. Louis sits further back but still mathematically alive. For both clubs, this head-to-head clash represents an opportunity to make up ground without relying on other results. Fans tracking the race can check MLB scores and odds throughout the weekend.

For the Reds, the goal is to halt their skid and restore confidence at home. For the Cardinals, it’s about salvaging a season that has never found consistent footing.

Conclusion

Friday’s opener between the Reds and Cardinals is less about where these teams stand now and more about where they can still go. Cincinnati needs a reset after a disastrous road trip, and Zack Littell has the chance to deliver it. St. Louis, with Matthew Liberatore struggling for answers, hopes rookie Thomas Saggese and others can provide enough offense to change the narrative.

For both sides, this three-game set is an inflection point. A sweep could push one club firmly back into the wild-card race while sending the other spiraling further out of contention. In late August, those stakes are more than enough to make Reds–Cardinals must-watch baseball.