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Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers October 1st 2025
The Detroit Tigers will visit the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. The Tigers have started strong with a 1-0 record, placing them first in the AL Central. The Guardians are looking to bounce back after a loss in their first game, putting them in second place in the division.
Casey Mize will start for the Tigers. He had a solid season with a 3.87 ERA and a 14-6 record. Tanner Bibee will pitch for the Guardians. He finished the season with a 4.24 ERA and a 12-11 record. The game will be played on a cool day with clear skies and a light breeze.
Tigers vs Guardians Key Information
| Sport | Baseball |
|---|---|
| Teams | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians |
| Venue | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 1:08 PM |
| Betting Odds | Tigers Moneyline +108, Guardians Moneyline -126 |
The Tigers Can Win If…
The Detroit Tigers are looking to bounce back after a close 4-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox. In that game, Javier Báez stood out with a home run and three RBIs. Andy Ibáñez also had a solid performance with three hits in three at-bats, showing the depth of their lineup.
Detroit’s offense has been consistent this season, ranking 9th in both batting average and slugging percentage. With 198 home runs, they have shown they can score quickly. Their starting pitcher, Casey Mize, has a strong record of 14-6 and an ERA of 3.87, which can give the Tigers an edge on the mound.
The Tigers’ pitching staff has a solid batting average against of .240, placing them 10th in the league. This indicates their ability to limit opposing teams’ hits. With Casey Mize leading the charge, Detroit has a good chance to keep the Cleveland Guardians’ bats in check and secure a win.
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The Guardians Can Win If…
The Cleveland Guardians come into this game with momentum from their recent win against the Texas Rangers. They won 9-8, with Brayan Rocchio hitting a home run and driving in four runs. Bo Naylor also contributed with two doubles and two RBIs, showing the depth of their lineup.
One reason the Guardians can win is their strong pitching. They have a team ERA of 3.70, which ranks fourth in the league. Tanner Bibee, their starting pitcher for the game, has a WHIP of 1.23, indicating his ability to limit baserunners.
José Ramírez is another key player for the Guardians. He has a batting average of .283 and has hit 30 home runs this season. His ability to drive in runs and get on base makes him a crucial part of their offense.
The Lean
The Guardians are favored with a moneyline of -126 against the Tigers, who have a moneyline of +108. The Guardians have a stronger pitching staff with a 3.70 ERA, ranked 4th, compared to the Tigers’ 3.97 ERA, ranked 16th. My model projects the Guardians to win with a score of 4-3, so I recommend taking the Guardians on the moneyline.
The total for the game is set at 6.5 runs, with the over at -116 and the under at -104. Both teams have mid-tier offensive stats, with the Guardians ranked 19th in batting average and the Tigers 9th. My model projects a total score of 7 runs, suggesting a play on the over.
Game Context And Series Outlook
The Detroit Tigers are one win away from advancing to the AL Division Series as they face the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday afternoon at Progressive Field. Detroit took Game 1 by a 2-1 margin, capitalizing on Cleveland’s defensive errors and dominant pitching to seize early control of this Wild Card series.
Cleveland faces steep odds: teams that lose Game 1 in a best-of-three Wild Card format are just 4-16 in Game 2, and only two of those 20 teams have gone on to win the series. For team stats and historical playoff trends, visit MLB Teams.
Casey Mize’s Postseason Debut
For Casey Mize, this Game 2 start carries personal weight. The right-hander was left off Detroit’s 2024 postseason roster, receiving the news in the same Cleveland bullpen where he’ll now make his playoff debut. After a strong 2025 regular season (14-6, 3.87 ERA), Mize has become a more polished, mature pitcher ready for the spotlight.
Mize has handled Cleveland well historically, going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in five career seasons and 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA across three starts this year. His ability to attack the zone early and manage damage against José Ramírez, Cleveland’s toughest out, will be critical.
Detroit’s pitching set the tone in Game 1, with Tarik Skubal and Will Vest holding Cleveland to just four hits. If Mize can provide length and keep the Guardians’ lineup off balance, the Tigers’ bullpen is well-positioned to finish the sweep. For detailed starting pitching analysis, check MLB Picks.
Guardians Turn To Bibee To Save The Season
The Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee, who has owned Detroit this season. Bibee went 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in three starts against the Tigers, striking out 21 across 19 innings. He’s also delivered strong career numbers vs. Detroit (4-3, 3.62 ERA overall; 2.08 ERA in last year’s ALDS).
Cleveland’s defense cost them dearly in Game 1, committing two errors that led directly to unearned runs. Their offense also fell flat, mustering just four hits in front of a record-low playoff crowd. Bibee will need to be sharp again to give the Guardians any chance, and Cleveland’s lineup must solve Mize early to avoid playing from behind.
For updated odds and lines for Game 2, visit MLB Scores and Odds.
Key Matchups
Detroit has been strong in recent postseason Game 2 scenarios, winning four of their last five with a 3-1 ATS mark in those games. They’ve also thrived as road underdogs this season, going 8-3 in their last 11 away games when priced at plus money.
Cleveland has struggled in elimination situations, losing five of their last six postseason games when trailing in a series. The Guardians have also hit the under in four of their last five playoff home games, reflecting their pitching-heavy identity and inconsistent offense.
Head-to-head, Bibee has dominated the Tigers recently, but Detroit’s pitching has matched that dominance this series. The under has cashed in four of the last six meetings between these two teams at Progressive Field.
For further wagering insights, see the MLB Expert Betting Guide.
Handicapper Spotlight – Last 14 Days (Baseball)
Bobby Babowski has been on fire recently, going 9-1 (90%) with $790 in net profit across the last two weeks. Rubi Chavez follows with a strong 15-7 record on higher volume, netting $722, showcasing sharp consistency in postseason and late-season MLB action.
Keylor Santos remains perfect at 6-0 (+$625) with a selective approach, while Evan Lewis has posted 8-2 (+$577), proving efficient and steady. These hot streaks are worth following as the MLB playoffs continue.
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Final Prediction
This matchup sets up as a pitcher’s duel between Mize’s composed approach and Bibee’s track record of dominance over Detroit. However, the Tigers’ defense, bullpen, and opportunistic hitting give them a slight edge in a close, low-scoring contest.
Predicted Score: Tigers 3 – Guardians 2
Detroit finishes the sweep on the road behind a strong outing from Mize and another clean defensive effort. The lean is Tigers ML and Under the total, given both starters’ form and recent trends.
For more postseason previews and picks, visit MLB Picks.
