Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions May 12th 2025

Brewers vs Guardians: Can Cleveland Snap Their Offensive Slump?

The temperature may be rising in Cleveland, but the Guardians’ bats remain ice-cold—and they’ll need to thaw fast as the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers come to town for a three-game interleague showdown.

After back-to-back shutouts against the Phillies and a meager seven total hits over the final two games of the weekend, Cleveland is in desperate need of offense. Meanwhile, Milwaukee just snapped a losing streak with an emotional win on Mother’s Day, powered by a Christian Yelich homer using a pink bat honoring his mom.

Both teams are battling to stay above .500, with major implications for standings, momentum, and morale. Let’s break down the key players, trends, pitching matchups, and betting angles heading into Monday night’s opener at Progressive Field.

Need full team stats and historical matchups? Browse our MLB Team Page for detailed insights.

Cold Bats, Hot Weather: Guardians Look to Bounce Back

The Guardians didn’t just lose two straight—they got dominated. Phillies aces Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler held them to seven hits over 18 innings, allowing just one run—a Carlos Santana sac fly in garbage time.

Their Sunday finale? A lifeless 3-0 defeat where no runner advanced past second base. Wheeler simply diced them up.

“We had some good swings early, but didn’t have much to show for it,” manager Stephen Vogt said. “Wheeler went to work after that.”

Still, Vogt sees long-term progress:

“From where we started to where we are today, I feel like we’re getting better. I like the direction.”

He’s not wrong. The Guardians have won 20 of their last 31, even with the offensive hiccup.

The Upcoming Schedule Doesn’t Help

Cleveland is midway through a 12-game stretch against NL teams:

• 3-3 so far
• Next stop after Milwaukee: road series at Cincinnati

So if there’s any time to figure things out offensively, it’s now.

Ben Lively: Cleveland’s Underrated Ace

Right-hander Ben Lively (2-2, 3.46 ERA) has been the Guardians’ most consistent starter this season. Monday marks his sixth career start against Milwaukee since his MLB return in 2023 after a stint in Korea.

His Record Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

• 0-4 against the Brewers
• ERA vs MIL: 3.38
• Often lacks run support despite strong outings

Lively knows how to battle and pitch deep into games. If the Guardians’ bats can simply produce average run support, this could be the breakout night Cleveland fans are hoping for.

Milwaukee Brewers: Yelich Wakes Up at the Right Time

The Brewers looked to be spiraling after three straight losses, but Sunday’s 4-2 win over Tampa Bay may have been a momentum reset.

Christian Yelich: A Home Run and a Tribute

On Mother’s Day, Yelich used a pink bat engraved with his mom’s name—and then went yard.

“It can’t get much worse, so I figured I’d try it,” he said. “Any time you hit a homer, you’ll take it.”

The blast couldn’t have come at a better time. He entered the game batting a career-low .200.

If this is the start of a hot streak, the Brewers’ offense could take off.

Freddy Peralta: Elite, but Watch That Groin

Monday’s starter Freddy Peralta (4-2, 2.18 ERA) is third in the National League in ERA and holding hitters to a .196 batting average. But there’s a red flag—he’s returning from a minor groin strain suffered May 4 vs. the Cubs.

Career vs Cleveland:

• 1-1
• 2.84 ERA
• 12.2 IP, 8 walks

If Peralta is 100% healthy, Cleveland’s struggling offense could be in for another frustrating night.

Need real-time updates on injuries and betting lines? Stay sharp with our MLB Odds Page.

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X-Factors to Watch

Steven Kwan (Guardians)

If Kwan can get on base early and disrupt Peralta’s rhythm, it opens up Cleveland’s offense. The leadoff spark is something they’ve missed badly the last two games.

Josh Naylor (Guardians)

Quiet lately, but a big-time bat when locked in. If anyone’s going to drive in Kwan or Ramirez, it’s Naylor.

William Contreras (Brewers)

The All-Star catcher is raking, and his framing skills could be key in helping Peralta navigate early innings against contact hitters.

Willy Adames (Brewers)

Another Brewers bat that’s been heating up. If Yelich and Adames click simultaneously, Cleveland’s staff may not have enough answers.

Pitching Matchup Breakdown

Statistically, Peralta has the edge. But with the groin strain and Cleveland’s home-field energy, don’t be surprised if Lively outduels him.

Betting Preview & Best Picks

Prediction:

Guardians 3, Brewers 2

Cleveland finally gets just enough offense, Lively shines again, and the bullpen holds tight.

Best Bets:

• Under 8.0 runs
• Guardians +1.5
• First 5 Innings: Under 4.5

Prop Picks:

• Kwan 1+ hit
• Yelich 1+ RBI
• Lively 5+ Ks

Dive into full expert projections on our Expert Betting Guide.

FAQs

Who’s pitching tonight for Cleveland and Milwaukee?

Ben Lively takes the hill for Cleveland, while Freddy Peralta returns from injury to start for the Brewers.

Is Christian Yelich heating up?

He hit a home run Sunday and showed signs of breaking out of his slump.

What’s the Guardians’ recent record?

They’ve won 20 of their last 31 games, despite dropping their last two to Philadelphia.

Will the Brewers have Brandon Woodruff back soon?

Yes, he’s slated to return next weekend after shoulder surgery and completed his final rehab start Sunday.

Who has the better bullpen?

Cleveland’s pen has been more consistent, especially in high-leverage situations.

Where can I find full team stats?

Head to our MLB Team Page for deep dives on every squad.

Final Take: Do or Die Offensively for Cleveland

This isn’t a must-win for Cleveland, but it’s a must-hit. They simply can’t afford another lifeless night at the plate. With Ben Lively dealing and Peralta not quite 100%, the opportunity is real.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, is riding the high of Yelich’s magic pink bat—but momentum is fragile.

Will the Guardians find their swing, or will the Brewers bury them deeper in their offensive hole?

We’ll know by tonight.