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Pirates vs Rockies Prediction: Can Keller Rally in Denver or Will Rockies Sweep At Coors?
On Sunday, August 3, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates (47–64) visit the Colorado Rockies (30–80) at Coors Field in Denver. First pitch is at time TBD, with Pirates -160 on the moneyline and Rockies at +136. The runline is Pirates -1.5 (‑108) and Rockies +1.5 (‑112). The total is 11.5 with Over +100 and Under -120. Weather is forecasted clear with a light breeze—classic Coors conditions.
Pittsburgh avoided a sweep by beating Colorado 9–5 yesterday behind a dominant offensive night from Spencer Horwitz (6 RBIs, two HRs). Meanwhile, the Rockies try to sweep their first home series of the season. Check out full details and reactions in the MLB recaps section.
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Pittsburgh Pirates Can Win If…
Mitch Keller has quietly pitched better than his 4–10 record suggests. Over his last nine starts, his ERA sits near 3.02, and he’s won his past three decisions. In four career starts against Colorado—including three in Denver—he owns a 0.39 ERA and a 2–1 record. If he gets early run support from hitters like Andrew McCutchen (11 HR) and Oneil Cruz (18 HR), Pittsburgh should have room to work comfortably.
Their pitching staff ranks 11th in ERA and 7th in limiting batting average, which can neutralize Coors Field’s typically high offense.
Colorado Rockies Can Win If…
The Rockies have rattled off two straight wins, including their comeback 17–16 victory on Saturday—a game highlighted by a five-run ninth inning and back-to-back homers from Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, and Jordan Beck. Rookie Bradley Blalock threw six shutout innings in his last start, his first quality outing of the year, walking just one batter in 17 innings total since his recall.
Colorado’s offense has value—ranked 10th in doubles—and capitalized on yesterday’s rally. If Blalock can replicate that form and the bullpen holds, a sweep is within reach.
Pitching Matchup Comparison
| Pitcher | Team | W–L | ERA | Last Start | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | Pirates | 4–10 | 3.69 | 5 IP, 5 R permitted on Sunday | ~1.21 |
| Bradley Blalock | Rockies | 1–2 | 7.09 | 6 shutout IP vs Guardians in Cleveland | ~1.40 |
Key MLB Betting Trends
- Pirates are 7–3 in their last 10 games
- Rockies have won their last two and seek their first home series sweep of 2025
- Recent total trends favor unders at Coors when quality pitching appears
- Pirates avoided the sweep with Horwitz’s 6-RBI game in yesterday’s win
The Lean
Despite Keller’s win-loss woes, his elite performance versus Colorado and Pittsburgh’s consistent bullpen edge make Pirates moneyline at –160 the lean. My model projects a 6–4 Pirates win.
Given a plausible early lead and Blalock’s volatility, the total is projected at 10 runs, making under 11.5 (‑120) the smart play.
Find updated projections and model-based picks in our MLB betting advice.
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