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Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers – ALDS Game 3 Betting Preview
The American League Division Series is tied 1-1 after two close battles. Each game ended 3-2, with the Detroit Tigers taking the opener in 11 innings before the Seattle Mariners responded to even things up. The series now moves to Detroit for Game 3, where right-handers Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty meet in a pivotal matchup.
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Seattle Mariners can win if
Seattle continues to limit hard contact and maintain its bullpen dominance. The Mariners have allowed only two runs through nearly nine innings of relief work so far, and Gilbert’s ability to control the zone has been steady all season. Julio Rodríguez’s timely hitting and Jorge Polanco’s power have sparked the offense, and replicating that production could tilt the series in Seattle’s favor. A clean defensive game will also be key, as small mistakes have proven costly for both teams.
Detroit Tigers can win if
Detroit finds early offense against Gilbert and puts pressure on Seattle’s bullpen before the seventh inning. Jack Flaherty’s command will set the tone; if he can navigate the Mariners’ top order twice without damage, Detroit’s relief core can take over from there. The Tigers have been strong at home in October, and timely contact hitting from the middle of the lineup will be vital to taking a 2-1 series lead.
Line Movement and Odds
Opening: Mariners -135 / Tigers +111
Current: Mariners -132 / Tigers +108
Run Line: Mariners -1.5 (+131) / Tigers +1.5 (-158)
Total: 7.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)
Sharp money leans Seattle while public bets are split. See current market numbers on the MLB odds page.
Matchup Breakdown
The Mariners’ bullpen has been a strength, with multiple arms posting scoreless appearances. Gilbert enters with a 3.44 ERA this season and a 2.61 ERA across two starts against Detroit. Josh Naylor’s status remains uncertain as he’s away for personal reasons, but the lineup has shown enough depth to adjust.
Detroit’s approach relies on manufacturing runs and leveraging its bullpen advantage. Flaherty owns a 2-0 record and 4.22 ERA lifetime versus Seattle, and the Tigers are comfortable playing low-scoring games. The home crowd should provide a lift, as Detroit is 5-1 in its last six postseason home games.
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Injuries and Conditions
Seattle Mariners
- Bryan Woo (pectoral) – out
- Josh Naylor – questionable, personal leave
Detroit Tigers
- No new injuries reported
Weather in Detroit is expected to be clear, around 68 °F with mild winds. Conditions are neutral for both hitters and pitchers.
Best Bets and Prediction
Seattle’s recent edge in extra-base power and bullpen depth gives them a narrow advantage. Detroit’s home form and Flaherty’s postseason experience keep it close, but Seattle’s lineup consistency may carry them late.
Prediction: Mariners 5, Tigers 4
Best Bet: Mariners moneyline (-130 range)
Secondary Lean: Over 7.5 runs
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