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Red Sox vs Astros Prediction: Javier’s Return Highlights Houston’s Homestand Opener
The Boston Red Sox visit the Houston Astros on Monday, August 11, 2025, at Daikin Park in Houston, TX, for the first game of a three-game set. The big storyline — Cristian Javier makes his first MLB start in nearly 15 months, while Garrett Crochet looks to continue his Cy Young–caliber season.
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Key Game Information
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Sport | Baseball (MLB) |
| Teams | Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros |
| Venue | Daikin Park — Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, August 11, 2025 |
| Probable Starters | BOS: Garrett Crochet (LHP) • HOU: Cristian Javier (RHP) |
| Weather | Very hot, scattered clouds |
| Betting Odds | BOS -176 • HOU +147 • O/U 7.5 |
Boston Red Sox Can Win If…
They keep the bats hot around their ace. Boston’s offense ranks 5th in slugging (.428) and features dangerous bats like Alex Bregman and Trevor Story. The club’s ability to string together extra-base hits could be crucial against Javier, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since May 2024.
Garrett Crochet (13–4, 2.24 ERA) has been dominant, leading MLB in innings and AL in ERA. He’s 6–0 over his last 11 starts with a 2.77 ERA, showing both stamina and consistency. If Crochet can limit Houston’s early momentum and hand the bullpen a lead, the Sox will be in position to take Game 1.
Houston Astros Can Win If…
Cristian Javier can shake off the rust and keep Boston’s lineup in check. Houston’s pitching staff ranks 6th in ERA (3.69) and leads MLB in strikeouts (1,125), a strength they’ll need against a Red Sox team that thrives on contact.
Offensively, Houston ranks 2nd in batting average (.258), with Jose Altuve (21 HR, .315 BA) and Carlos Correa already showing chemistry since his return. If they can get timely hits and force Crochet into high pitch counts early, the Astros could set up their bullpen to steal a win.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Trend Type | Red Sox | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Current Form | Lost 3 of last 4 • 7–3 in last 10 before skid | Won 2 straight • 4–5 road trip |
| Batting Avg | .253 (7th) | .258 (2nd) |
| Slugging % | .428 (5th) | .421 (9th) |
| ERA Rank | 7th (3.73) | 6th (3.69) |
The Lean
The Red Sox have the pitching edge with Crochet’s dominance and Houston easing Javier back into action. However, the Astros’ hot bats at home could keep this one close.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-176)
Projected Score: Red Sox 5, Astros 3
Total Lean: Over 7.5 — both teams have too much offensive firepower for a low-scoring game.
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