Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions May 9th 2025

Peña’s Patience Powering Astros Offense

It wasn’t the most predictable change. With just 90 walks in 1,842 plate appearances, Jeremy Peña was far from a prototypical leadoff hitter. But with the Houston Astros searching for a solution to their early-season offensive struggles, manager Joe Espada took a calculated risk—and it’s paying off.

Since moving Peña to the top of the order on April 27, Houston’s offense has found a spark. Peña has slashed .349/.378/.558 over his last 10 games, racking up five multi-hit performances, including a 2-for-5 night with a double and a three-run home run in Wednesday’s 9-1 rout over Milwaukee.

“He’s matured in understanding what pitchers are trying to do,” Espada said. “He comes in the game and sees pitches… We’re not asking him to walk—we want him to wait for his pitch, and he’s doing that.”

Check out Peña’s current batting props and trends at the MLB Odds Page.

Astros Riding Hunter Brown’s Arm in Series Opener

While Peña is leading the charge at the plate, Hunter Brown (5-1, 1.67 ERA) has been dealing on the mound. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, logging a quality start in all seven appearances.

Brown enters Friday with five straight winning decisions and was nearly untouchable in April, going 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA over four starts. Even in his last outing—an “off” night by his recent standards—Brown allowed just three runs and struck out nine in six innings during an 8-3 win over the Chicago White Sox.

Against the Reds, he’s had success before. In a start last September, Brown pitched six shutout innings, giving up four hits and one walk with six strikeouts, though he didn’t get a decision in Houston’s 1-0 loss.

Track full pitcher matchups and game history on the MLB Team Page.

Martinez Looks to Slow Houston Momentum

On the other side, the Cincinnati Reds will send Nick Martinez (1-3, 4.19 ERA) to the hill. While the Reds have struggled in games he’s started (1-6 record in those seven outings), Martinez has produced back-to-back quality starts, including six strong innings of one-run ball against the Washington Nationals on Sunday.

Martinez’s career against Houston has been a mixed bag. He owns a 4-4 record with a 3.88 ERA over 14 appearances (9 starts). In his most recent meeting with the Astros (Sept. 4, 2024), he lasted 5 2/3 innings, allowing four runs (one earned) with seven strikeouts in a 12-5 loss.

Reds Lose Greene to IL, Look to Regroup

The Reds announced that ace Hunter Greene will hit the 15-day injured list with a Grade 1 groin strain. Greene left Wednesday’s win over the Braves after three scoreless innings and an MRI confirmed a minor strain.

“It’s not terrible,” manager Terry Francona said, noting that Greene is only expected to miss one or two starts. While he wasn’t lined up to pitch against Houston this weekend, the loss of their top arm adds pressure on the rotation to hold down one of the AL’s top offenses.

Find injury updates and fantasy impacts on our Expert Betting Guide.

Astros Trending Up After Road Wake-Up

Following a sluggish start to the season, Houston seems to be rounding into form. Their 9-1 win over the Brewers on Wednesday capped a strong road series and gave bettors and fans a glimpse of what this team can do when their lineup clicks.

• Peña has become the consistent threat they were missing.
• Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are driving the middle of the lineup.
• The bullpen has been stabilized by Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader.

With Brown on the mound and Martinez’s inconsistency, Houston enters Friday as the clear favorite. Check the latest run lines on our MLB Picks page.

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Cincinnati Needs to Find Rhythm

The Reds have been streaky this season and enter this matchup having lost five of their last seven. Even in close games, the bullpen has faltered, and the offense hasn’t consistently picked up the slack.

With Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz, and Spencer Steer providing potential upside, Cincinnati has the talent to challenge Houston, but they’ll need better results from the bottom half of their lineup and sharper middle relief work to stay competitive in this series.

Key Matchups to Watch

Jeremy Peña vs. Nick Martinez
Peña is locked in, and if Martinez misses in the zone early, look for Peña to be aggressive and set the tone again.

Hunter Brown vs. Elly De La Cruz
Brown has been dominant vs. both lefties and righties, but De La Cruz’s speed and plate discipline make him a constant disruptor if he gets on base.

Astros’ Bullpen vs. Late-Inning Reds Threats
Houston’s late-inning arms have been solid, but will be tested if the Reds keep it close into the 7th and 8th.

Betting Trends

• Astros are 6-1 in Hunter Brown’s starts this season.
• Reds are 1-6 in games started by Nick Martinez.
• Houston has won 5 of its last 7 home games.
• Cincinnati is 3-7 in their last 10 road contests.
• Under is 6-2 in Houston’s last 8 games.

FAQs

Who’s starting for the Astros and Reds on Friday?
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. Nick Martinez (CIN)

What is Jeremy Peña’s batting average since moving to leadoff?
Peña is hitting .349 with a .558 slugging percentage in 10 games since the change.

What’s Hunter Brown’s current ERA?
Brown carries a 1.67 ERA over 43 innings this season.

Why is Hunter Greene out for the Reds?
He’s been placed on the 15-day IL with a Grade 1 groin strain.

Are the Astros favored on Friday?
Yes, Houston opened as the favorite with Brown on the mound and recent offensive momentum.

Where can I get more daily MLB predictions?
Visit the Baseball Service Plays page for free and premium expert picks.