Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions June 26th 2025

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies June 26th 2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Houston Astros at Daikin Park in Houston. The game is set for Thursday, June 26, 2025, at 2:10 PM. This is an afternoon game, and the weather forecast calls for a warm day with light rain, though the retractable roof may keep the field dry.

Both teams share an identical season record of 47-33. The Phillies have a road record of 21-19, while the Astros have a strong home record of 29-13. Cristopher Sánchez will start for the Phillies, bringing an ERA of 2.88, while Hunter Brown will pitch for the Astros with an impressive ERA of 1.88.

Phillies vs Astros Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
• Venue: Daikin Park in Houston, TX
• Date: Thursday, June 26, 2025
• Betting Odds: Phillies MoneyLine +122, Astros MoneyLine -144

The Phillies Can Win If…

The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to bounce back after a close 0-2 loss against the Houston Astros. Zack Wheeler pitched well, allowing only one earned run over six innings with eight strikeouts. Despite not scoring, the Phillies managed seven hits, showing their ability to get on base.

Philadelphia’s hitting stats are among the best in the league, with a team batting average of .256, ranking third. Their on-base percentage also ranks third at .328. Kyle Schwarber is a key player, ranking fifth in home runs with 24, and his ability to drive in runs will be crucial.

The Phillies’ pitching staff is also a strong point, with Cristopher Sánchez set to start with an ERA of 2.88. He has been consistent, boasting a 6-2 record. The team leads the league in quality starts with 44, indicating their ability to keep games within reach.

The Astros Can Win If…

The Houston Astros are coming off a strong performance against the Philadelphia Phillies, winning 2-0. Colton Gordon pitched five scoreless innings, allowing only four hits. Victor Caratini led the offense with a home run, while Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes contributed with key hits.

Houston’s pitching has been a standout this season, with a team ERA of 3.43, ranking 5th in the league. Their batting average against is .219, the best in the league. With Hunter Brown starting, who has an ERA of 1.88, the Astros have a solid chance to keep the Phillies’ bats quiet.

Offensively, the Astros have been consistent, with a team batting average of .256, placing them 3rd in the league. Jeremy Peña, with a .325 average, has been a key player. Isaac Paredes adds power with 16 home runs, providing a balanced attack that can challenge any pitching staff.

The Lean

The Astros are favored with a MoneyLine of -144, while the Phillies are at +122. Given the Astros’ strong pitching, with a league-best batting average against of .219, the recommendation is to pick the Astros to win. The model projects a score of Astros 4, Phillies 3, which supports the Astros’ MoneyLine odds.

The over/under line is set at 7.0. With both teams having solid pitching, the model projects a total score of 7. This suggests taking the under, as both teams’ pitching stats indicate a lower-scoring game. The Astros’ ERA of 3.43 and the Phillies’ ERA of 3.84 support this pick.

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Hunter Brown, Astros Aim to Sweep Phillies with Pitching Power

The Houston Astros have leaned heavily into their pitching identity this season, and it’s paying off. After shutting down the Philadelphia Phillies 2-0 on Wednesday, they’ll turn to ace right-hander Hunter Brown to go for a three-game sweep in Thursday’s interleague finale.

Houston’s pitching was dominant again midweek, deploying all four of their left-handed relievers—Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa, Bryan King, and Josh Hader—in support of rookie Colton Gordon. The group combined for 10 strikeouts, allowed only seven singles, and didn’t issue a single walk.

“In today’s game with the three-batter rule, you have to get righties and lefties out, and those guys have been really good for us the entire year.”
— Joe Espada

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Each member of Houston’s bullpen has contributed significantly, with Sousa (1.57 ERA) and Hader (1.73) leading the way. Okert (2.52) and King (2.97) have provided equally reliable arms that can shut down both sides of the plate. Against a Phillies lineup heavy on right-handed hitters, the Astros’ staff never blinked.

Brown Brings the Heat

Hunter Brown (8-3, 1.88 ERA) has been lights-out for the Astros. His league-leading numbers in ERA, average hits per nine innings (5.54), and opponent batting average (.178) highlight his breakout season. In his last five starts, he’s gone 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 38 strikeouts in just over 29 innings.

Brown’s only prior appearance against the Phillies came in relief, tossing 2 1/3 hitless innings with three strikeouts in 2022. This time, he’ll start with the sweep on the line.

On the other side, Cristopher Sanchez (6-2, 2.87 ERA) will start for Philadelphia. The lefty has quietly put together a strong run, with five straight starts of two earned runs or fewer. He’s 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA over that stretch and has logged seven quality starts in his last nine games.

“What pitches they have matters… I think it’s all based on the pitcher, and how they’re swinging the bat.”
— Rob Thomson

Phillies manager Rob Thomson has been tinkering with his lineup all series, weighing platoon matchups and pitch types. With Houston’s arms firing on all cylinders, he’ll need to get creative again to generate offense.

Astros’ Dominance, Phillies’ Challenge

With the Astros’ bullpen anchored by multiple weapons and Brown in peak form, Houston has a golden opportunity to keep the Phillies off balance and finish the sweep. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is hoping their own lefty ace can stop the bleeding.

For bettors eyeing value, this matchup is ripe for analysis. From strikeout props to run totals, the angles are there—and it’s the kind of contest that sharp MLB betting predictions and picks can turn into profit.

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