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Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays May 29th 2025
The Rays head to Daikin Park to take on the Astros on Thursday, May 29, 2025. The game is set to start at 8:10 PM and will be played under the lights. Fans can expect an exciting night game atmosphere.
Shane Baz will take the mound for the Rays with an ERA of 4.94 and a WHIP of 1.39. The Astros will counter with Ryan Gusto, who has an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.53. Both pitchers will look to give their teams an edge in this matchup.
Rays vs Astros Key Information
- Sport: Baseball
- Teams: Rays vs. Astros
- Venue: Daikin Park
- Date: Thursday, May 29, 2025
- Betting Odds: Rays Spread -1.5 (+161), Astros Spread +1.5 (-202), Rays MoneyLine -103, Astros MoneyLine -115, Over 8.0 (-117), Under 8.0 (-104)
The Rays Can Win If…
The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off a strong performance against the Minnesota Twins, winning 5-0. Drew Rasmussen pitched six innings, allowing just one hit and no runs, while striking out five. Junior Caminero and Brandon Lowe both hit home runs, providing the offensive spark needed for the victory.
The Rays’ pitching has been solid this season, with a team ERA of 3.58, ranking them 9th in the league. Their ability to limit opponents’ batting average to .235 is another strength. With 28 quality starts, they rank 2nd, showing their starters often keep them in games.
Offensively, the Rays lead the league in stolen bases with 76, adding pressure on opposing defenses. Brandon Lowe and Jonathan Aranda have been key contributors, combining for 18 home runs and 60 RBIs. Their mix of speed and power gives them a good chance to win against the Astros.
The Astros Can Win If…
The Houston Astros are coming off a solid win against the Athletics, where they secured a 5-3 victory. Lance McCullers Jr. led the way with 12 strikeouts over six innings. Zach Dezenzo had a strong performance, going 2 for 3 with a home run.
The Astros have shown they can win with strong pitching and timely hitting. Their team ERA of 3.37 ranks 8th, while their WHIP of 1.15 is the best in the league. These stats suggest they can keep the Rays’ offense in check and build on their recent success.
Isaac Paredes and Jeremy Peña are key players for the Astros. Paredes leads the team with 11 home runs, while Peña holds a .297 batting average. With these players in form, the Astros have the firepower to win this game against the Rays.
The Lean
The Astros are favored with a moneyline of -115, while the Rays sit at -103. Despite the close odds, the Astros’ stronger batting average and lower opponent batting average give them an edge. My model projects the Astros to win 5-4. Based on this, I recommend taking the Astros to win straight up.
The current total is set at 8.0 runs, with the over at -117 and the under at -104. Both teams have solid pitching, but the Astros’ better ERA and WHIP suggest a lower-scoring game. My model projects a total of 9 runs. Therefore, I recommend betting on the over for this matchup.
Future Odds Shifting?
See Updated MLB Futures
Red-Hot Rays and Astros Collide in Houston Showdown
When two teams are streaking like this, something’s gotta give. The Tampa Bay Rays have won seven of their last eight, and the Houston Astros are riding a four-game heater into Thursday’s series opener at Minute Maid Park.
For fans of elite pitching, hot hitters, and playoff-caliber baseball in May — this one’s got all the ingredients.
Tampa sends Shane Baz to the mound hoping he can close out May with the same fire that’s reignited the Rays’ season. But the Astros, even without some key arms, are dangerous at home — and they’ve shown they’re deep enough to hang with anyone.
Shane Baz Looks to Close May on a High Note
The month didn’t start well for Baz. Through his first four starts in May, he went 0-3 with a bloated 9.61 ERA. But last week against the Toronto Blue Jays, Baz looked like himself again.
He allowed just one run on four hits across 5 2/3 innings in a 3-1 win, showing flashes of the ace potential that had Rays fans buzzing last year before his injury setbacks.
Manager Kevin Cash praised Baz for pushing through early control struggles in that outing:
“Sometimes, you’ve got to just bare down and trust your stuff,” he said. “He made pitches when it mattered.”
Baz’s Monthly Split Breakdown
- April: 3-0, 2.45 ERA
- May (pre-last start): 0-3, 9.61 ERA
- May 25 vs. TOR: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 6 K (Win)
If Baz can build off that performance, the Rays have a legit shot at controlling this series early.
Ryan Gusto’s Big Opportunity in Houston’s Rotation
The Astros were dealt a blow this week when Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter just last season, was ruled out for the year with elbow surgery looming. That, combined with Brandon Walter being optioned, has left Houston in rotation-repair mode.
Enter Ryan Gusto (3-2, 4.58 ERA), the rookie right-hander who’s seen time both out of the bullpen and as a starter this season. Thursday night, he’ll take the ball to open this high-stakes four-game set.
Gusto pitched 4 1/3 innings last Friday against the Mariners, giving up two runs on four hits, and while he didn’t factor into the decision, it was a solid showing.
Manager Joe Espada made the call official Wednesday.
“As the leader of this team, I’ve got to keep the guys focused,” Espada said. “We’re still the best team in the AL West. Someone’s got to step up.”
Get daily fantasy and betting analysis from the MLB expert betting guide.
Brandon Lowe’s Quiet Consistency Powering Tampa’s Lineup
While the focus has been on the Rays’ pitching turnaround, don’t overlook Brandon Lowe. The infielder has quietly put together an 11-game hitting streak, helping balance the lineup with consistent contact and situational hitting.
Lowe’s resurgence is timed perfectly. As the Rays claw back into the AL East race, they’ll need every bit of his production — especially with games coming in pitcher-friendly parks like Houston.
Injury Watch: Astros Monitoring Christian Walker
Astros first baseman Christian Walker exited Wednesday’s win against Oakland after taking a 96 mph fastball off his hand. Fortunately, early signs are positive.
“I should be good to go,” Walker said postgame, though his availability remains day-to-day. If he can’t suit up, expect Mauricio Dubón to fill in again after doing so capably Wednesday.
Walker’s bat is a huge part of the Astros’ middle order, so his absence could be felt if he misses more than a game.
Team Trends Heading Into Series
Rays Are Rolling
- 7 wins in last 8 games
- 3 shutouts in last 11 contests
- Team ERA dropping to under 3.00 during win streak
Tampa’s rotation and bullpen are clicking, and timely hitting — led by Lowe, Yandy Díaz, and Harold Ramírez — is finally delivering.
Astros Heating Up at Home
- 4-game win streak
- 20-10 home record
- 5-3 win over A’s thanks to Caratini and Dezenzo clutch hits
Houston’s been rock-solid at Minute Maid Park, and despite rotation holes, they’re finding production from unlikely places.
Explore more on contenders and underdogs at the MLB odds page.
FAQs
Who is starting for the Rays vs. Astros?
Shane Baz (4-3, 4.94 ERA) gets the nod for Tampa in Game 1 of the series.
Who is replacing Ronel Blanco in the Astros rotation?
Ryan Gusto, a rookie with a 3-2 record, is starting Thursday and could earn more starts.
Is Christian Walker injured?
He was hit by a pitch on the hand but expects to play. Mauricio Dubón will cover if needed.
What is Brandon Lowe’s current hitting streak?
He’s riding an 11-game streak, one of the longest in MLB right now.
Conclusion: Momentum Meets Depth in Must-Watch Series
Tampa Bay and Houston have both found their grooves, but this series could tell us who’s built for a mid-season run. Can Shane Baz cap off May with a statement, or will Houston’s emerging arms and relentless lineup defend home turf?
Four games. Two surging teams. One defining stretch.
