Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Picks and Predictions May 8th 2025

White Sox Aim to Snap Royals’ Dominance in Series Finale

The Kansas City Royals have had the Chicago White Sox’s number—and they’re showing no signs of slowing down. Heading into Thursday’s series finale, Kansas City has not only taken the first three games of this four-game set, but they’ve also extended their home win streak over Chicago to a commanding 10 games.

Fueling this dominance? Stellar starting pitching. Over the last three games, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha have allowed just one earned run combined across 18.2 innings. That kind of control has helped the Royals win 14 of their last 16 games, including five straight overall.

Despite scoring only nine runs in the series, Kansas City has squeezed out tight wins in back-to-back one-run games, showcasing both poise and defensive strength.

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Bobby Witt Jr. Setting the Tone

If there’s a face of Kansas City’s resurgence, it’s Bobby Witt Jr.—and he’s not shying away from the spotlight. Witt clubbed a key two-run homer in Wednesday’s 2-1 win and continues to torment the White Sox, hitting a blistering .548 with 12 RBIs in his last 11 games against them.

“Every day we go to the field, we’re planning on winning,” Witt said postgame. That mindset is paying off.

Despite struggling against Thursday’s starter Davis Martin in the past (0-for-5 with three strikeouts), Witt remains the player to watch every time he steps to the plate.

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White Sox Search for Answers in Tight Losses

While the Royals have looked confident, the Chicago White Sox have appeared cursed in close games. They’ve now dropped 10 consecutive contests overall and are an ugly 2-10 in one-run games this season.

That trend has been painfully evident in Kansas City, where Chicago has been competitive in each of the past two games—but can’t seem to finish the job.

“We’re right there,” said manager Will Venable. “We’ve just got to keep continuing to fight… proud of our effort, but we’ve got to find a way to win.”

There’s talent in the lineup, including the red-hot Miguel Vargas, who’s batting .360 over his last 14 games and recorded two doubles Wednesday. But the lack of early scoring—and inability to convert in late innings—continues to haunt the Sox.

Check the MLB Picks Page for expert takes on tonight’s series finale.

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Davis Martin’s Strong Form Offers Hope

Despite Chicago’s recent struggles, Thursday’s starter Davis Martin has quietly been putting together solid outings. With a 3.52 ERA on the season and a 1.69 ERA in two previous starts against Kansas City, Martin has the tools to deliver a bounce-back performance.

In his last three starts, he’s allowed just three earned runs over 16 innings, showing impressive control and composure, even in losses. He gave up all three earned in his last start against Houston but still managed to hold firm through five innings.

Vinnie Pasquantino, one of the Royals’ hottest bats, has a homer off Martin, but Witt has struggled against him historically. If Martin can navigate the heart of the order and limit free passes, Chicago could finally have the upper hand.

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Kris Bubic Anchors Royals’ Strong Rotation

Kris Bubic (3-2, 1.98 ERA) has quietly become a major piece in Kansas City’s early-season success. While he hasn’t pitched deep into games consistently, his efficiency and command have placed him among the ERA leaders in the American League.

He’s blanked opponents in two of his last three outings, including five scoreless innings against Baltimore last Saturday.

Surprisingly, Bubic has yet to win a game in 10 career appearances against the White Sox, but he’s maintained a solid 2.64 ERA in those matchups. His slider-changeup combo has been tough on Chicago bats historically, even if it hasn’t translated to wins.

Key matchup to watch: Andrew Vaughn, who is 4-for-10 with a homer off Bubic, could be a catalyst for the Sox if he sees the ball well early.

Head-to-Head Trends and Series Breakdown

Last 17 Matchups (including this series):

• Royals: 16 wins
• White Sox: 1 win
• KC Home Wins in a Row vs. CHW: 10
• One-run games in the series: 2 (both Royals wins)

Current Hitting Streaks:

• Maikel Garcia (KC): Batting .397 in his last 16 games
• Vinnie Pasquantino (KC): 7-for-16 with 1 HR in last 4 games
• Miguel Vargas (CHW): .360 over his last 14 games

What to Watch in Game 4

For Kansas City to Sweep:

• Bubic must keep his pitch count down and dominate the lower half of the White Sox order.
• Offense needs timely contributions from hitters not named Witt or Pasquantino.
• Maintain defensive focus in late innings.

For the White Sox to Finally Break Through:

• Early offense. Chicago has failed to take control early in most of their recent games.
• Leverage Davis Martin’s command early to stay in rhythm.
• Capitalize with runners in scoring position—something they’ve failed at all series.

FAQs

Why have the Royals dominated the White Sox lately?

• Strong starting pitching, timely hitting, and clutch defense have led to 10 straight home wins over Chicago.

Who is starting for Kansas City and Chicago?

• Kris Bubic (KC) and Davis Martin (CHW).

What’s Bobby Witt Jr.’s record against the White Sox?

• Witt is batting .548 with 3 HRs and 12 RBIs over his last 11 games vs. Chicago.

How has Davis Martin performed recently?

• He has a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts and has limited Kansas City well in past outings.

What’s the White Sox’s record in one-run games?

• They are currently 2-10 in one-run games this season.

Where can I find betting tips for this matchup?

• Visit the MLB Picks Page for expert insights.