Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions September 5th 2025

Twins vs Royals Picks and Predictions — September 5, 2025

The Kansas City Royals haven’t fully capitalized on their extended homestand, but they’ll look to close it out with momentum as they host the Minnesota Twins on Friday night. This is a crucial opener for Kansas City, which remains just two games out of an AL Wild Card spot.

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Oddsmakers opened this matchup with the Royals as slight favorites. The early line shows Kansas City at -120 on the moneyline, Minnesota at +110, with the total sitting at 8.5 runs.

These teams have split their 10 matchups so far in 2025. To see how they’ve fared lately, review the latest MLB Game Results and trends.

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Royals Can Win If…

The Royals’ offense is showing signs of life again, especially after slugging four solo homers in Thursday’s 4-3 comeback win over the Angels. Bobby Witt Jr.’s go-ahead blast in the eighth inning was a spark Kansas City badly needed, and his continued clutch play could be the difference in this series.

Veteran Michael Wacha (8-11, 3.52 ERA) will take the mound, looking to rebound from a rough outing against Detroit. Despite giving up four runs in 4.2 innings in his last start, Wacha was 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA over his previous eight games.

“Let’s just turn the page and keep attacking,” said Royals closer Carlos Estevez, who recorded his career-high 37th save Thursday night.

Twins Can Win If…

Minnesota’s best hope lies in the expected return of right-hander Pablo Lopez (5-3, 2.82 ERA), who is slated to start after missing three months with a shoulder strain. If Lopez is even close to his pre-injury form, he’ll be a formidable challenge for the Royals’ bats.

Lopez owns a 5-1 record and a 2.16 ERA in eight career starts against Kansas City and posted a 3.18 ERA over three recent rehab appearances in Triple-A. He’ll be a major asset—if healthy.

“We’ll monitor him and evaluate him and see how he is,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said regarding Lopez’s battery mate Ryan Jeffers, who left Thursday’s game with a head injury.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Model Projection: Royals 5, Twins 3
Pick: Royals Moneyline
Total Lean: Under 8.5

Kansas City’s offense has been streaky, but with the energy from Thursday’s comeback and Wacha’s veteran presence, they have the edge—especially if Lopez needs time to settle back in. Stay sharp with daily insights like this from our MLB Betting Predictions hub.

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