Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions June 26th 2025

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays June 26th 2025

The Tampa Bay Rays will visit the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Thursday, June 26, 2025. The game is set for an afternoon start at 2:10 PM and will be broadcast on FDSSU. Fans can expect a warm day with a light breeze under clear skies.

The Rays, led by manager Kevin Cash, hold a 45-35 record and are just 1 game back in the AL East. Shane Baz will take the mound for Tampa Bay, carrying an ERA of 4.79. The Royals, managed by Matt Quatraro, have a 38-42 record and sit 11 games back in the AL Central. Michael Lorenzen will start for Kansas City with an ERA of 4.81.

Rays vs Royals Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO
• Date: Thursday, June 26, 2025
• Betting Odds: Rays MoneyLine -124, Royals MoneyLine +105

The Rays Can Win If…

The Tampa Bay Rays secured a 3-0 victory against the Kansas City Royals in their most recent game. Drew Rasmussen led the charge on the mound, pitching five innings and allowing only two hits. Josh Lowe contributed with two hits, while José Caballero added a hit and an RBI.

The Rays have a strong batting average of .257, ranking second in the league. Their on-base percentage is .322, placing them sixth. They also lead the league in stolen bases with 104, showcasing their speed on the bases.

Shane Baz will start for the Rays, bringing a 7-3 record to the mound. Baz’s ability to limit walks and strikeouts can keep the Royals’ hitters in check. With their strong recent performances and key stats, the Rays have the tools to win this game.

The Royals Can Win If…

The Kansas City Royals are looking to bounce back from their recent 0-3 loss against the Tampa Bay Rays. Despite the loss, Michael Wacha showed strong performance on the mound with 9 strikeouts over 6 innings. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino were among the few to register hits, indicating potential for offensive improvement in the next game.

The Royals have a solid chance to win with their pitching strength. They have a team ERA of 3.40, ranking 4th in the league, which shows their ability to control the game from the mound. Their pitching staff also ranks 2nd in quality starts, which can help them keep games close and give their hitters a chance to make an impact.

Offensively, the Royals have some key players who can make a difference. Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .282 with 10 home runs and 40 RBIs, leading the team in runs. Maikel Garcia adds to the lineup with a .310 batting average, providing consistency at the plate. With Michael Lorenzen starting, the Royals will aim to support him with better run production against Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz.

The Lean

The Rays are favored with a moneyline of -124 against the Royals at +105. Given the Rays’ strong batting average and solid pitching stats, the model projects them to win. The projected score is Rays 6, Royals 4. Therefore, the recommendation is to pick the Rays to win straight up.

The current over/under line is set at 10.0. With the projected total score at 10, the model suggests taking the under. Both teams have strong pitching, which may limit scoring opportunities. This aligns with the projected score of Rays 6, Royals 4, totaling 10 runs.

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A Tale of Two Teams: Rays Stay Red Hot While Royals Spiral

The Tampa Bay Rays are surging, and the Kansas City Royals are sinking fast. As they wrap up their three-game series on Thursday afternoon, the contrast between the two clubs couldn’t be clearer. Tampa Bay has taken the first two games convincingly, outscoring Kansas City 8-1 and shutting them out entirely in Wednesday’s 3-0 win.

The Rays’ starting pitching has been dominant. Taj Bradley and Drew Rasmussen combined for 11 2/3 innings of two-hit, scoreless ball in the first two games, while the bullpen has struck out 10 and limited the Royals to just three hits in Game 2.

“Any time you can blank a team, it’s great.”
— Pete Fairbanks

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Next up for Tampa Bay is Shane Baz (7-3, 4.79 ERA), who’s helped his team to six straight wins in his starts. While his personal stats haven’t dazzled—posting a 4.01 ERA and only one outing with six full innings during that stretch—Baz has benefited from incredible run support, with the Rays averaging nine runs per game behind him.

Baz will look to avenge a rough outing against the Royals back in May, when he allowed seven runs across 5 2/3 innings, including a two-run shot by Bobby Witt Jr. Still, momentum is firmly on Tampa Bay’s side.

The Rays have won 24 of their last 33 games and are riding a five-game road win streak. Much of that success is being driven by a scorching-hot lineup: Yandy Diaz is hitting .476 over a 15-game hitting streak, Brandon Lowe is batting .396 during a 12-game tear, and Jonathan Aranda boasts a .410 average across 10 games.

“I think the pieces have always been there. Just guys taking the good at bats.”
— Pete Fairbanks

The Royals, meanwhile, are reeling. They’ve dropped 16 of their last 19 home games, including nine straight, and have been outscored 39-12 during that stretch. Since a 24-16 start, Kansas City has gone just 14-26 and is now battling inconsistency and an evident lack of offensive firepower.

Michael Lorenzen (4-7, 4.81 ERA) takes the mound for the Royals, looking to replicate his solid outing from April 29 against Tampa Bay when he allowed just one run over six innings. Despite recent stability—1-1 with a 3.63 ERA over his last three starts—his team hasn’t given him much support.

“Maybe we’re trying to do too much. We gotta figure it out… We got to move on; we can’t hang our heads.”
— Jonathan India

Key Stats and Betting Focus

While Baz has been shaky against the Royals before, Tampa Bay’s offense gives them the clear edge heading into the finale. The Royals’ struggles at the plate and inability to win at home continue to be a glaring problem.

If you’re eyeing this matchup for your next wager, it’s a prime target for sharp MLB betting picks and predictions. With Tampa Bay red-hot and Kansas City free-falling, all indicators point toward a potential sweep.

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