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Astros vs Marlins Prediction: Can Houston Push for the Sweep?
On Wednesday, August 6, 2025, the Miami Marlins (55–57) host the Houston Astros (64–50) at loanDepot Park. First pitch is scheduled for afternoon ET, with the Astros slight favorites at –110, and the Marlins priced at –108. Over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Light rain and a breeze are expected—though domed conditions may factor if rain increases.
Houston has scored 15 runs across the past two games and is riding emerging contributions from newly acquired players including Carlos Correa, Jesús Sánchez, and Ramón Urías. Marlins rookie Jakob Marsee has also shone, launching his first MLB home run in yesterday’s loss.
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Miami Marlins Can Win If…
Miami sees value in Janson Junk (5–2, 3.86 ERA), who has enjoyed a career season with consistent command and limit on runs. He’ll need help from the lineup, where Jakob Marsee and Eric Wagamese have shown pop. The Marlins also rank strong in doubles and OBP, giving them paths to manufacture scoring despite Houston’s pitching edge.
Houston Astros Can Win If…
Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña has returned from injury, rejoining a lineup bolstered by deadline acquisitions. Despite injuries to Yordan Álvarez and Isaac Paredes, Houston averages elite power and slugging.
Spencer Arrighetti gets the start, offering excellent control (0.93 WHIP), and if Houston’s revamped offense springs to life again, they can reinforce a dominant road swing.
Pitching Matchup Comparison
| Pitcher | Team | W–L (2025) | ERA | WHIP | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti | Astros | 1–1 | 5.59 | 0.93 | Debut start vs Marlins |
| Janson Junk | Marlins | 5–2 | 3.86 | ~1.10 | Career-best early season |
Key Betting Trends
- Astros have totaled 15 runs in their past two games
- Marlins rookie Marsee is hitting confidently in his first few games
- Houston’s core additions have added offensive depth and trade-off value
- Overs have hit in 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams
The Lean
Houston’s trade additions suggest their offense is primed to outpace Tampa’s rotation depth, and Arrighetti’s control gives him upside despite recent ERA struggles. I project a 5–4 Astros win, making the Astros moneyline (–110) the lean.
With both lineups capable of big innings, but pitchers holding tempo early, my projection lands at 9 total runs, suggesting over 8.5 (no odds line given due to line change caution).
Check updated model projections and expert picks in the expert betting guide.
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