Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions July 21st 2025

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres July 21st 2025

The San Diego Padres will take on the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park in Miami. The game is set for Monday, July 21, 2025, at 6:40 PM. The Padres have a season record of 54-45, while the Marlins stand at 46-52. The weather forecast predicts a very hot day with overcast clouds, but the retractable roof at the stadium means conditions inside will be stable.

San Diego’s manager, Mike Schildt, will lead his team against Clayton McCullough’s Marlins. The Padres have a road record of 23-27, and the Marlins have a home record of 22-28. The starting pitcher for the Padres is still to be decided, while the Marlins will start Eury Pérez, who has an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 0.91 this season.

Padres vs Marlins Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
• Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, FL
• Date: Monday, July 21, 2025
• Betting Odds: Padres Moneyline +113, Marlins Moneyline -132, Padres Runline +1.5 (-192), Marlins Runline -1.5 (+160), Total Over 8.5 (-103), Total Under 8.5 (-117)

The Padres Can Win If…

The San Diego Padres recently had a strong performance against the Washington Nationals, winning 8-1. Nick Pivetta pitched six innings, allowing only one run. Xander Bogaerts and Elias Díaz each hit home runs, driving in six runs combined.

The Padres’ pitching ranks well, with a team ERA of 3.63, placing them 5th in the league. Their batting average against is .229, ranking 3rd. This strong pitching can limit the opposing team’s scoring opportunities.

Manny Machado leads the Padres with a .288 batting average and 18 home runs. The lineup also includes Fernando Tatis Jr. and Gavin Sheets, who have contributed 16 and 14 home runs, respectively. These players provide the Padres with the power needed to win games.

The Marlins Can Win If…

The Miami Marlins are looking to bounce back after a 4-7 loss to the Kansas City Royals. Agustín Ramírez had a good performance, driving in two runs with a double. Xavier Edwards also contributed with a hit and two RBIs, showing his ability to get on base and drive in runs.

Despite the recent loss, the Marlins have shown they can win. They have a solid batting average of .253, ranking 6th in the league. Their ability to hit doubles, with 165 so far this season, ranks them 7th, which can help them score runs and keep the pressure on their opponents.

Eury Pérez will be on the mound for the Marlins. He has a strong ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 0.91, indicating his ability to limit base runners. With Pérez pitching and the Marlins’ ability to hit, they have a good chance to secure a win in their next game against the Padres.

The Lean

The Marlins are the pick to win the game with a moneyline of -132. The Padres have a weaker pitching staff, ranking 24th in ERA, compared to the Marlins’ 5th. The Marlins also have a better batting average, ranking 6th, which gives them an edge.

For the over/under, the recommendation is to take the under at 8.5 (-117). The Marlins’ strong pitching, with a .229 batting average against, suggests a low-scoring game. The model projects a score of Marlins 4, Padres 3, totaling 7 runs.

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Eury Perez Looks to Extend Dominant July as Marlins Host Padres

The Miami Marlins will turn to rising star Eury Perez on Monday night as they open a three-game series against the San Diego Padres. Both clubs are chasing NL playoff positioning, with Miami looking to stay hot at home and San Diego riding its own surge behind some “Slam Diego” power.

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Perez’s Remarkable Comeback Leading Miami

Perez (3-2, 3.18 ERA) has been sensational since returning from Tommy John surgery in June. After a careful 14-month recovery, the 22-year-old has only gotten better as the summer’s heated up. In three July starts, Perez is a perfect 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA, dominating opponents and showing no signs of rust.

Meanwhile, fellow Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara hasn’t had the same success after elbow surgery, struggling to a 4-9 record with a 7.14 ERA despite a longer 17-month recovery. Still, Alcantara has served as a mentor for Perez through his return to the mound.

Perez has yet to face San Diego in his career, but he’ll enter with plenty of confidence after Miami’s recent run of form. The Marlins are 21-11 in their past 32 games, despite Sunday’s loss to the Royals that snapped a four-game win streak.

“Trying to win series,” rookie manager Clayton McCullough said. “That’s what we’re going to continue to focus on … and not get too far ahead of ourselves.”

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Padres Bringing Back the ‘Slam Diego’ Swagger

San Diego arrives in Miami after winning three straight series and blasting their way past the Nationals with back-to-back grand slams over the weekend. Xander Bogaerts launched a first-inning slam in Sunday’s 8-1 rout, while Manny Machado hit one Friday in a 7-2 win.

“We could be ‘Slam Diego’ again,” manager Mike Shildt joked. “I’m fine with it.”

The Padres remain firmly in the NL wild-card picture and will send Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.80 ERA) to the mound. Vasquez, a 26-year-old Dominican right-hander, is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two career outings against Miami. Acquired from the Yankees in the Juan Soto trade, he’s 9-13 with a 4.10 ERA across 50 career appearances.

Machado, a Miami native, continues to power San Diego’s offense with 18 homers, 60 RBIs, and an .843 OPS. Meanwhile, former Marlin Luis Arraez is adjusting after his May trade to the Padres, hitting .284—still productive, but below his career .318 average.

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With Perez dealing like an ace and the Padres flexing their power, Monday’s opener features two clubs with plenty to play for. Can Miami ride their young phenom to another key win, or will “Slam Diego” strike again? Get the latest MLB Predictions and Picks before first pitch.